Ben Linfoot: Value Bet
Wednesday 27 July 2011 20:48, UK
Ben Linfoot seeks out the value on day three of Glorious Goodwood.
Calaf can be King
Very few of the runners in the opening Betfred The Bonus King Handicap at Glorious Goodwood on Thursday usually make the running and it presents a dilemma for punters.
Mark Johnston's pair Oceanway and Swift Alhaarth are the exceptions but the former is drawn out wide in 15 while the latter seemed to sulk when getting smothered by the field at the July Meeting.
On the one hand they could get an easy lead and if they do Oceanway makes some appeal at 11/1, but I fear he could use up too much energy in the early stages to ensure his prominent pitch.
Swift Alhaarth will have more up his sleeve from stall three but I just can't bring myself to back a horse that has gone up 3lbs after finishing last on his latest start.
Hopefully the pair will set a good gallop and set the race up because I fancy a couple of finishers and the one that sticks out at the prices is Richard Fahey's CALAF at 28/1.
This horse has improved with racing and the step up to 10 furlongs this season and he got off the mark at the ninth attempt last time at Chester.
He got the better of gutsy front-runner Ivan Vasilevich that day, the pair well clear of the third, and Jane Chapple-Hyam's horse won a better race off a 3lb-higher mark at Ascot over the weekend.
Calaf has gone up just 5lbs for his Chester win and he did it a shade cosily. I've no doubt he can improve from his current mark of 79 and as he sneaks in at the bottom of the weights here he has to be backed at 28s.
I'll also have a saver on Hughie Morrison's SAGRAMOR who I thought would be a fair bit shorter than 8/1.
The draw hasn't been kind to him in 14 but he would be held up anyway and everything points to him improving for the step up in trip.
He won the Britannia Handicap - one of the hottest handicaps for three-year-olds all year - at Royal Ascot last time despite the one-mile trip as he was doing all his best work at the finish.
There's plenty of stamina on his dam's side and he's only gone up 6lbs for his Royal Ascot win which might be a tad lenient.
A couple of firms offer the 8/1 and that should be snapped up.