The Insider

The Insider begins his Festival ante-post portfolio with the Cheltenham Gold Cup and the Ryanair Chase.

Quito to rock Gold rivals

The initial entries for the Cheltenham Festival are out today so it's time to begin our ante-post portfolio once again ahead of the greatest week our sport offers.

The Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup, sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Chase and Ryanair Chase are the first three races to have been released and many horses have multiple entries.

Just getting a selection to the race may prove a mini triumph in itself then, though Ladbrokes are going non runner no bet on the four championship races already so their prices are certainly worth considering for the Gold Cup and the Champion Chase.

The Cheltenham Gold Cup is a difficult race to assess from an ante-post point of view.

You have two horses way clear in the betting and on ratings in Kauto Star and Long Run but neither look rock-solid propositions at the prices.

Just focusing on the pair, I'd fancy Long Run to beat Kauto Star as he looks more and more like a horse that relishes a stamina test and the extra distance could be the key factor.

He was gaining on Kauto at the finish in the King George and his younger legs are going to help him at some stage this season - probably up the Cheltenham hill in the big one.

However, with two months until the big race I couldn't be backing him at 11/4 and of all those over a stone behind the pair on official ratings QUITO DE LA ROQUE appeals most at 33/1.

He disappointed behind Synchronised in the Lexus Chase last time but he'd only had the one race in preparation and it was a really tough one against Sizing Europe.

That clearly left a mark and the winner, who had had the benefit of two runs over hurdles, was just too good on the day.

I'm of no doubt that Quito De La Roque was the best Gold Cup prospect in that race, though, and he shouldn't be discarded from our thoughts after one disappointing effort.

If he'd won the Lexus he'd be a single-figure price for the Gold Cup, there is no doubt about it, so the 33/1 looks very generous if you can forgive that effort.

I can.

He rattled off five straight wins over fences prior to his defeat and better ground holds no fears for him.

Colm Murphy is a superb trainer when he gets a good one - just look at the Grade One races he has won with Brave Inca and Big Zeb among others.

Quito De La Roque has the potential to make his mark at the very top and if he proves it in the Irish Hennessy his odds will collapse once more so we'll get on now.

The Champion Chase also has two horses clear at the top of the betting in Sizing Europe and Big Zeb and it's hard to see past the Irish duo.

Finians Rainbow could be one to give the Irish pair a race but he's short enough at 7/1 given his inexperience and it's a race I'll swerve at this stage.

I did consider backing Kauto Stone at 20s NRNB with Ladbrokes given Paul Nicholls looks to be lacking in this division for the first time in years.

He did hint the Ryanair would be his preferred target but he's clearly looking for a new two-mile candidate now Master Minded is out of the picture.

Kauto Stone did really well to keep within eight lengths of Sizing Europe at Sandown given his inexperience and he could be suited by a strongly-run two miles around Cheltenham.

However, Nicholls seems to be leaning towards running the novice Al Ferof in the Champion Chase with Kauto Stone going the Ryanair route, so we'll keep our powder dry in this contest for now.

Med can't be missed

The Ryanair does offer a decent betting opportunity, though, with the 20/1 about MEDERMIT worth snapping up.

This market is wide open with King George third and fourth Captain Chris and Somersby prominent in the market, but both are seemingly being prepared for a Gold Cup challenge.

I've already summised that Kauto Stone could run in the Queen Mother and two others high up in the betting - Riverside Theatre and Albertas Run - haven't been seen for ages.

The latter's absence would normally be less of a concern as he won at Aintree in October and was always going to be saved for the spring as he thrives at Festival time, however, an injury sustained in October has left his Festival participation in some doubt.

He's won an RSA Chase and two Ryanairs so demands obvious respect but he's 11-years-old now and it would be disappointing if something couldn't come out of the pack and beat him anyway.

Noble Prince and Rubi Light are of obvious interest given connections have highlighted this race as their intended targets but they are short enough in the betting given the wide open nature of the race.

Indeed, Medermit is only a pound or two behind the pair on official ratings but is a much bigger price at 20/1 and I can't see why.

He's run very well at the Festival in the past, finishing second in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle before running fourth in last year's Arkle and he reaffirmed his liking for the track with a close second last time.

It's that form behind Quantitativeeasing which makes him of interest here because he ran a cracker off a big weight in a rough race and that sort of form isn't far off the required standard to win a Ryanair.

Over two-and-half-miles he's really unexposed, finishing 2-1-2-2 from four starts and that win was in a Grade One as a novice when he beat Captain Chris.

Alan King says he's 'working back from the Ryanair' with his programme for the remainder of the season so don't be too worried if he doesn't win his prep race at Ascot.

Still, a bold showing in Berkshire is likely so the 20/1 is worth taking now.

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