Flutter on Moth
Monday 27 May 2013 13:30, UK
Will Hayler provides our horse-by-horse guide to the runners in Friday's Investec Oaks and selects Moth as his fancy.
Will Hayler provides our horse-by-horse guide to the runners in Friday's Investec Oaks and selects Moth as his fancy.
Banoffee: Sweetly-named filly, bred by controversial former British Horseracing Board boss Peter Savill, with stamina on both sides of her pedigree. Reportedly not entirely unfancied first time out, but the fact that she was sent off at 28/1 to win a fairly ordinary maiden at Newbury hardly screams out future Classic winner. Displayed hints of temperament when winning the Cheshire Oaks on her only subsequent start, but hard not to crab her turn of foot in a decently-run renewal and she remains open to considerable further improvement. However the fact remains that she was effectively beating handicappers in that contest and a line through fifth-placed Hollowina suggests that she may struggle against Liber Nauticus. Gertrude Versed: Needed four races to break her duck and hard to see quite why she should reverse placings with Banoffee from Chester. Owner Rachel 'Don't call me Mrs Gosden' Hood will have a nice broodmare on her hands if she can make the first four, but even that looks fanciful - a thorough test of stamina would be her best chance. Liber Nauticus: It's brave to take any horse to Goodwood for their debut, especially one as sturdily-built as Liber Nauticus, but this likeable filly overcame obvious inexperience to claim a victory that saw her enter plenty of notebooks. Her trainer, a creature of habit, always had the Musidora in mind for her reappearance, and she maintained her unbeaten record with a professional performance, staying on strongly to beat Romantic Settings. On the face of things, it was disappointing she failed to show a little more sparkle, but she won't have been fully wound up and even the bare form of that victory makes her an obvious contender. Questions to answer as to whether she is an Epsom filly though. Madame Defarge: Backward at two, but talented enough to spring a surprise in a heavy-ground Yarmouth maiden on her only start and ran respectably again when third to Talent in Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket. Light on mileage and very stout pedigree points to her appreciating the move up to a mile and a half. Scopey and much to like, but probably a filly who ultimately needs more time and likely to find some of these a little too streetwise. Miss You Too: Only victory from nine starts came in a five-runner maiden at York, and her experience relative to these rivals makes it all the more concerning that she pulled for her head like a lunatic in the early stages of the Oaks Trial at Lingfield last time. Given those ugly exertions, it's perhaps even more laudable that she managed to hold on for second. The other way of looking at it though, is that the form is near-enough worthless and third-placed Whippy Cream didn't do much in the Italian Oaks on Sunday. Moth: Promoted up the Ballydoyle ranks after easy maiden win on her reappearance this season and justified the decision to supplement her into the 1000 Guineas line-up with a good third behind Sky Lantern. Runner-up Just The Judge didn't let that form down at the Curragh on Sunday, and she was staying on takingly at the line having struggled to find her feet going into the Dip. Full-sister stayed a mile and a half happily enough and stamina unlikely to be a problem. Given the high level of form she has already shown at shorter trips, that can only be encouraging as to her prospects. Roz: Second to Certify in Fillies' Mile at two was achieved on merit, but it was a bit of a bunch finish for the placings and possible that the form doesn't add up to a huge amount. Failed to show much sparkle in the 1000 Guineas on her reappearance and stating the obvious that she has much to do with Moth on that form. Decent ground suits, but not easy to make a case for her. Say: Top-class dam had a bit of toe in the US, but seems to produce sturdier sorts and a mile and a half looks the minimum for this filly. Likely to be out of her depth in this line-up, but parallels between her and last year's winner Was. Secret Gesture: Well-related filly always held in high regard by under-rated trainer. Impressive in heavy ground when taking Newbury maiden on second start at two and could hardly have done more at Lingfield on seasonal return, winning by 10 lengths. Very hard not to crab that form, but not fair to put her down on the basis of a lack of opposition, and to some extent she remains one of the darkest in this line-up despite her place at the head of the betting. Snow Queen: Appeared set to finish tailed off in the 1000 Guineas, only to produce a remarkable late burst which brought her to within a couple of lengths of the principals by the line. However she wore cheekpieces there and the application of a visor failed to have the desired effect in the Irish version on Sunday and although Ballydoyle fillies have taken the route from that race to the Oaks with success before, this surely won't be one of them. Talent: Might not have looked a brilliant renewal of the Pretty Polly which she won at Newmarket's Guineas meeting, but fifth-placed Cruck Realta is a decent yardstick and possible that the form of the race may have been slightly under-valued. Trainer has hinted that she is a bit of a fiery filly, but there won't be many better bookings than Richard Hughes if she is to be switched off in the opening stages and she hails from a family with a longstanding Classic tradition. The Lark: Trainer knows the family well and has no doubts about her stamina for this trip, despite speed influence of her sire. Bit disappointing that she was only third at Newbury on her reappearance though, and despite surely having been in need of that race, she did take a long time to pick up. Likely to find some of these rivals have too much toe. Summary: Although I've never been much of a fan of a school of thought that says you need to start doing down a race before it's even been run, this probably isn't a vintage Oaks. Many of the runners wouldn't be out of place in a half-decent handicap, while others have questions to answer over their suitability for the track or have hinted at issues with temperament. Compared to some of the other trials, the 1000 Guineas and Musidora stand out like a beacon and it's no surprise to see Moth and Liber Nauticus towards the head of the betting here. Secret Gesture was undeniably impressive at Lingfield but that was a peculiar contest and looks short enough in the betting, despite the respect in which I hold her trainer. Given her pedigree, it is to Moth's credit that she has been able to perform so effectively over shorter trips this season and I like her chances a lot. She has a determined attitude and a turn of foot which others in this field may well lack. For those looking for something longer in the betting, Talent's chances may have been marginally underestimated by the bookmakers. Plenty of these are fairly thorough stayers likely to be ridden handily so we surely won't see a repeat of the farcical lack of pace that has blighted the race more than once in recent renewals. On that basis, Talent should be able to switch off in rear before Richard Hughes weaves her through late on to try and pick up the pieces.Back Moth for the Oaks now with Sky Bet
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