Can Buffalo Bills dethrone New England Patriots in AFC East?
Watch the Buffalo Bills visit the New England Patriots on Sky Sports Action (407) at 9.30pm on Saturday night
Saturday 21 December 2019 21:45, UK
The Buffalo Bills have already ticked off a playoff berth, their best record through 14 games since 1993 and their first 10-win season since 1999 - so why stop there?
An opportunity to slay one of sport's greatest dynasties awaits, with most of the NFL willing the Bills on to end the Patriots' supremacy.
New England have clinched 16 of the last 18 AFC East titles, including 10 in a row on their way towards a record 11 AFC championship victories and six Super Bowl rings.
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You have to look all the way back to 1995 for the Bills' last division triumph and 2008 for the most recent non-Patriots winner, the Miami Dolphins coming out on top in that year.
It will take a combined effort of the Bills and Dolphins if Bill Belichick's defending champions are to be stripped of the throne.
A chance...
The Bills (10-4) head into Foxborough knowing a win over the Patriots (11-3) would level things up at the top of the AFC East and promise a fascinating final day of the regular season.
They must beat New England and the New York Jets in Week 17 while hoping Miami can pull off a remarkable win over the Patriots if they are to come out on top in the division.
Should the sides finish with matching records the title would go to the Patriots, who hold the tiebreaker. Unlikely, but certainly not impossible.
History is very much in the favour of New England, who have won each of the last six meetings between the two sides and boast a 75-43-1 record in the series. In fact, the Patriots have beaten the Bills more times than any other opponent, coming out on top 16-10 back in Week Four in a game that saw Josh Allen throw three interceptions.
Regardless of what happens, head coach Sean McDermott and his players deserve enormous credit for making Saturday's matchup the latest in a season that the division lead will be decided head to head since 2008.
To have stuck around this deep into the year is testament to the job McDermott has done with a team that finished 6-10 in 2018.
The Bills have had to deflect doubt over their playoff credentials on a weekly basis this season, with many only really convinced of their threat inside the last month.
A Thanksgiving Day win over the Cowboys was an eye-opener in that respect and even the 24-17 loss to the Baltimore Ravens the following week showcased a team capable of pushing the best all the way.
Were it not for a superb Marcus Peters pass break-up late in the fourth quarter then they may well have gone on to get something from that game.
They also clinched their playoff spot by beating a Steelers side that entered Week 15 having won seven of their last eight.
Where do the Bills have the edge?
This Bills defense has come to life at the right time, limiting back-to-back opponents to fewer than 300 yards on offense for the first time since Weeks Eight and Nine.
This includes a season-low of 209 yards against the Ravens and Lamar Jackson, who was restricted to just 40 rushing on the day.
Buffalo head into New England with the third-ranked defense in the NFL for fewest yards allowed per game with 291.9, bettered only by the San Francisco 49ers' 269 and the Patriots' 268.4. They are also allowing the second-fewest points per game with 15.9 and have conceded the second-fewest touchdowns this season at 24.
Tom Brady and the Patriots' ninth-ranked pass attack would do well to avoid the exceptional White in light of his joint-most six interceptions so far this season - an accolade he shares with New England rival and fellow cornerback Stephon Gilmore.
White also leads the Bills with 17 pass defenses, including eight in his last three games, and also has 58 tackles to his name.
Linebacker Tremaine Edmunds is tied for 19th in the NFL with 105 tackles, while defensive tackle Jordan Phillips is tied for 14th with 9.5 sacks after producing two against the Steelers. This defense has playmakers all over.
The Bills have been no pushovers on the ground either, allowing a 10th-fewest 101.4 rushing yards per game heading into Week 16.
Improving the run game will be a focus for the Patriots as they gear up for post-season football. Having averaged a fifth-highest 127.3 rushing yards per game from a third-most 478 carries in 2018, they are now registering just 101.8 yards per game off 385 carries with two games to play.
With clock management famously key heading into January, running backs Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead could see a spike in production, especially with wide receiver Julian Edelman struggling for fitness.
Can the Bills hurt the Patriots D?
Bills quarterback Josh Allen faces his toughest test of the season when he comes up against the league's No 1 ranked defense.
The 23-year-old will be contested by a unit that is allowing just 268.4 total yards per game and averaging 170.3 yards against the pass. New England also lead the league with 25 interceptions as well as having 11 fumble recoveries on the year.
His ability to scramble outside of the pocket has proven a match for any defense, but Gillete Stadium will stage an insight into his divisive accuracy.
Having been picked off three times when the teams met earlier this season, Allen has since thrown just three more interceptions. Let's not forget he has also taken his rushing touchdown tally to nine.
While the Patriots will be keen to swerve White, Allen and the Bills will be equally wary of Pro Bowler Gilmore in the secondary.
His presence along with the overall strength of the Patriots defense calls for a balanced approach from the Bills.
Wide receiver John Brown will be key as the team's leading receiver with 71 catches for 1,007 yards and five touchdowns, along with the experienced Cole Beasley who has racked up 60 catches for 670 yards and six touchdowns.
Devin Singletary can be a welcomed asset in wearing the Patriots down having emerged as Buffalo's top rusher with 729 yards, while five-time Pro Bowler Frank Gore still has fuel left in the tank.
Singletary's use in the passing game is another avenue to continue pursuing after his 28 catches for 192 yards and two touchdowns over his 11 games so far in 2019.
The Bills not only have a chance to worry the Patriots this weekend, but also prove they can serve as the long-term rival that the AFC has been in desperate need of.
