Alex Payne: Favourites to come out on top in RWC semis
All Blacks to shade Springboks duel and set up final with Australia
Saturday 24 October 2015 12:02, UK
Alex Payne looks for the value in this weekend's Rugby World Cup semi-finals.
New Zealand v South Africa, 4pm Saturday
A lot of the talk this week has been about the great rivalry of New Zealand and South Africa. Well that may be so, but it appears a fairly one-sided battle in recent years, with the All Blacks winning 10 of the last 12 meetings.
Off the back of the quarter-finals, it is not easy to back the Boks. They struggled to put away a patched-up Wales outfit, while New Zealand not only raised the bar against France, but knocked it up to a level we rarely see.
However, there is something about facing a black shirt that brings the Boks to the boil. South Africa have been far from brilliant over the last four years, and yet they always rise to the challenge of the Kiwis. The last three meetings have been very close; New Zealand by four, South Africa by two and New Zealand by seven; all in the balance until the end.
I think this is one of those games where recent form doesn't tell us as much as history. We have seen already the underdogs of Scotland, Wales and Argentina causing the favourites real problems in the quarters and that is the position South Africa will adopt this weekend. They've looked very relaxed in the build-up, relishing what many see as a free hit and I think the 7/2 available with Sky Bet on the Boks is a great bet in a two-horse race.
And they have the men to cause concerns for the favourites.
Fourie du Preez may be 33, and held together with sticking plaster, but he has won seven of his 12 Tests against the All Blacks and scored four tries against them (a tempting 17/2 anytime on Saturday).
Bryan Habana has four tries in his last seven games against New Zealand and is 4/1 for a try to break Jonah Lomu's record, but I really like the 15/2 for Jessie Kriel. The outside centre scored against the Wallabies on his Test debut this summer and scored on his first Test against the All Blacks a week later. The 100/1 on a Kriel double is also an appealing Hail Mary!
If you want a pub stat for this weekend, Lomu and Julian Savea have scored 75 Test tries between them, but neither has ever crossed against the Springboks. Savea is back to his very best, reflected in the skinny 6/4 to break that drought this weekend. Ben Smith has three in his last four against South Africa (7/2 anytime) while there is more reward on Kieran Read at 13/2, who has four in 11 starts against South Africa.
With rain forecast, I think this will be very tight and it might be worth considering the 28/1 on a draw at full time. But having teed up the Boks to cause an upset, I am chickening out and going with New Zealand. This is their time, I think they are too good and I've swung on Dan Carter's 80% at goal which could be the key factor over Handre Pollard's 73%.
Australia v Argentina, 4pm Sunday
These two are becoming well acquainted through the Rugby Championship, but it is Australia who have taken six of the seven meetings since the Pumas joined the big boys; the one loss coming by four points a year ago.
Sir Graham Henry, who helped coach Argentina in their first two years in the Championship, thinks the Pumas will be dangerous this weekend as they're playing without expectation. But I am more concerned with Argentina's habit in recent years of a big result followed by a slump. In 2013, they fell to the Wallabies by a point in Perth and everyone thought they had arrived. In the return fixture two weeks later, they lost at home by 37 points.
Another example comes in this year's Rugby Championship. One week after their stunning bonus-point win against the Springboks in Durban, the Pumas slipped to a very disappointing 26-12 defeat to the same opponent a week later at home. My point is that, for all the wonderful rugby they have been playing in this tournament, I'm not sure they yet have a full grasp on the emotions of tournament rugby. Having seen the lap of honour and their kids out on the pitch after their win over Ireland, it felt like a celebration of getting to the semi-final rather than a stepping stone to something greater.
Although Argentina scored the most points in the pool campaign, they also conceded more than any of the quarter-finalists bar Scotland in the group stages. I think a side of Australia's intelligence should be able to pick off those opportunities, and test the Pumas' patience. The Wallabies had the fright of their lives in the quarter final, and I think there will be shades of 1991 when they so nearly fell to Ireland, only to knock out the All Blacks a week later.
The loss of Scott Sio is a blow to the Wallabies scrum, but that is more than made up for by the return of David Pocock who will cause havoc again at the breakdown, while the fit-again Israel Folau has four tries in five games against Argentina (15/8 anytime).
The play so far in the try-scoring stakes has been wingers, who have scored over one in three of the total tries in the tournament. Australian wingers have scored seven tries in the last seven games against Argentina, and Drew Mitchell (9/4 anytime) and Adam Ashley-Cooper (5/2 anytime) scored three between them last week.
Argentina didn't cross the Australian line in their earlier meeting this year, but prior to that, eight of their last nine tries against the Wallabies had come from the backs, as have 15 of their 21 tries at this tournament. Juan Imhoff is still my man to play at 7/4 - he has a couple of tries in the bag against the Wallabies.
The other area I would look this week is first scoring play and time of first try.
In three of their last four games against Argentina, the first Wallaby try has been scored within two minutes. Couple this with the fact that in their last four matches at the World Cup, Argentina have either scored or conceded a try within the first eight minutes. Semi-finals tend to be nervy affairs and there is value in those nerves leading to a try as first scoring play.
In terms of the match result, five of the last seven between these two have finished within seven points. I fancy a similar tussle on Sunday, but Australia to take it by 6-10 at 4/1.
