World Cup pools up for grabs after shock results, says Stuart Barnes
Monday 10 August 2015 16:53, UK
Stuart Barnes is back! In his new column, he dissects the World Cup pools after the weekend's surprise wins and losses...
So much for plotting paths to World Cup finals; for over a year, I have had a sequence of results locked tight in my brain and with them, the diverging routes for respective teams towards Twickenham and the final on October 31. I really should know better after all these World Cups.
In 2007, France's first-day loss to Argentina turned the quarter-final line-up upside down as the hosts unexpectedly left Paris to create the tournament's sensation by beating the All Blacks in a Cardiff quarter-final. Four years later, another shock at the pool stages altered everything.
Australia - then as now - went into the competition as winners of the Rugby Championship. Ireland went into it having been embarrassed by England in the final World Cup warm-up game in Dublin.
An Australian pool win would have sent them into the knockout stages with the likes of Wales, England and France - who had this time lived up to pool billing and been beaten not only by New Zealand but Tonga too and scraped through as a runner-up.
The All Blacks had the small question of South Africa to overcome in their half; manage that, and it looked like the dream final from New Zealand's perspective - a shoot-out with the Aussies. And what happens? Sean O'Brien, that's what.
New Zealand are still by a distance the best team on the world but any sense of invincibility has disappeared.
Battered
The Irishman had the game of his career - until then and maybe since - and the Wallabies were battered at the breakdown and beaten out of sight. An entire year thinking about the knockout stages was up in smoke.
Suddenly, the draw for the last eight was a clean southern-northern split with Ireland, Wales, France and England in the one half and Australia, Argentina, New Zealand and South Africa in the other.
The Aussies beat the Springboks in the quarter-finals and lo and behold, the 'final' came a game early. In the other half, Ireland and Wales fought out a fascinating but utterly unexpected quarter-final before the, until then, feeble French scraped their way into a final that they almost won.
And four years later, here I am again working it all out...
England win their pool and play Scotland or Samoa. The runners-up - Australia has been my fancy - are left with the South Africans. New Zealand are unquestionably pool winners and likely to face the losers of France v Ireland, with the winners of that Six Nations repeat up against Argentina.
England v Ireland is my European semi, New Zealand v South Africa my southern hemisphere clash of titans... or rather, was.
Let's not get too carried away, the World Cup is not won and nor is it lost on the second Saturday of August but what the events of Saturday did do was throw a gigantic question mark over the tournament which people like me should expect yet cannot help but ignore, addicted to the beautiful simplicity of the seemingly inevitable draw.
Well, there is no inevitable and doesn't the competition look all the better for the confusion cast by some of Saturday's matches? New Zealand are still by a distance the best team on the world, but any sense of invincibility has disappeared.
They may well exact revenge against Australia in Auckland this coming weekend but the World Cup is not being played in New Zealand this time. They are beatable, with Australia revealed as extremely dangerous.
Routed
Confidently, or reasonably confidently, seeing England surge past them - not to mention Wales, who I have not fancied to make it out of the pool - seems somewhat stupid now.
That match appears to be a massive hurdle, yet, hang on a minute, is coming runners-up quite the end of the road as it seemed when that particular route to the final was blocked by the Springboks and the All Blacks?
It's still the road I'd rather not take but South Africa have now lost their three Rugby Championship matches.
The previous defeats were explicable, narrow losses, bad fortune and serious opposition. Argentina are respected but not regarded as the very top tier of test rugby. On Saturday, they routed South Africa, eclipsing the home side in every facet of their game.
The Springboks have many questions to answer while, on a repeat of this form, even New Zealand will need to beware the South Americans on the opening Sunday at Wembley. I can't wait to head to football's cathedral for that one after seeing the Durban demolition.
An opening weekend Argentine ambush as we witnessed in 2007? I am not about to tip them to beat the All Blacks but I am not writing them off 100 per cent. Let's say they do lose. The winners of the Ireland v France clash don't have it so easy on the strength of Saturday.
And will it be Ireland or France? And yes, I know I am risking it and ruling Italy out of the equation in that pool.
Live International Rugby Union
Saturday saw Ireland's mainly second-string thrash Wales' even weaker and rustier weakened side but there was plenty to admire. A strong scrum, a superb structure and a confident side that will be expertly prepared; Ireland retain the look of serious contenders but Argentina could be a colossal banana skin lying in their path.
As for France and England, we get our first glimpse on Saturday, Scotland too. More about them next Monday, to hell with predictions...
