Wallabies will have too much for England, says Alex Payne
Saturday 18 June 2016 11:46, UK
Alex Payne predicts disappointment for England and Wales but glory for Ireland in Johannesburg on Saturday.
Australia v England
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The dust hasn't really had the chance to settle this week in the aftermath of England's win in Brisbane.
The verbals began in the post-match press conference and have rumbled on all week, just as Eddie Jones predicted. Let's hope the second Test lives up to the first and the hype.
In the opener, we learnt that England have what it takes to beat the best. This week, we find out if they can do it consistently.
I expect Australia to be more canny and dangerous than they were in the opener. They should have worked out how to negate England's line speed in defence and to handle England's power at the scrum more effectively. They will be much better with a game under their belt.
In terms of the differences, a southern hemisphere referee (Craig Joubert, who Scotland fans will not forget in a hurry after the World Cup quarter-final) swings the pendulum to the Wallabies but the loss of David Pocock at No 8 swings it back again.
On the flip side, England are unlikely to start as slowly as they did, will be more settled with Ford and Farrell and I think bench has a more balanced look to it.
I have wanted to back England all week but the Wallabies always seem to haul themselves out of impossible situations. I fear they may just have too much to sneak the win in a one score game. Australia just, at 4/5 with Sky Bet.
Wallaby watch: Israel Folau remains their obvious danger man (6/4 anytime), but I thought Dane Haylett-Petty roamed the field and looked very comfortable on his debut last week. He is 100/30 for his first test try this week.
Electric England: England wingers have scored 24 tries in their last 19 tests - a remarkable strike rate. Yarde and replacement Nowell (nine in his last 12 Tests) both crossed last weekend.
There is good value on the Sky Bet Price Boost on Nowell anytime and England win at 11/2, but I would play Anthony Watson (10 in 13) again for an anytime try at 5/2. A nod to Billy Vunipola too, who I think Eddie Jones will try and squeeze more from this week and is 18/1 for the first try.
New Zealand v Wales
There are growing fears for Wales heading into the second Test after their tour veered off the tracks with the midweek thumping at the hands of the Chiefs. Gone is the optimism at half-time in the first Test, instead their media are circling, waiting to get stuck in.
There is no doubt the All Blacks are going to be significantly better on Saturday. However, recent history shows that Wales also get better after the first Test.
Four years ago in Australia they were comfortably beaten by the Wallabies in the opener, but were then only pipped by an injury-time penalty in the second. Two years ago, they were thumped by South Africa in the first Test, but only denied by a 78th-minute penalty-try the following week.
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Expect Gatland to inspire a furious and emotional start from the visitors, but ultimately I think the worries will be proved correct.
The talk since Tuesday has been very downbeat. Sam Warburton, Taulupe Faletau and Jamie Roberts are all backing up for the third game in seven days and Wales are developing a worrying trend of running out of gas at the 60-minute mark.
The All Blacks are the most ruthless side in the game and will feed on all of the above. I think we could have a very similar result to last week with the All Blacks running clear in the final quarter, particularly given the strength of their bench. New Zealand to cruise home beating the 21-point start at 10/11 with Sky Bet.
Kiwi combos: Waisake Naholo has scored three doubles in his last four games and is 6/4 for another two on Saturday. I also like the combination of Malakai Fekitoa/Ben Smith to both score anytime tries at 5/1; Smith switches back to the wing, where he has scored 14 tries in 17 starts, while Fekitoa is getting better and better.
Welsh wonders: Many people are saying this is hit and hope for Wales, so perhaps it is worth also highlighting the 200/1 on a Gethin Jenkins or Samson Lee first try.
It has been an extraordinary week for Rhys Patchell who has gone from hanging out with friends at home seven days ago straight into the starting XV for the second Test. 11/2 says his week gets even better with a try against the world champions.
South Africa v Ireland
The first Test victory was hailed in Ireland as one of their finest, and by Springbok fans as one of the worst in their recent history. It was hard to believe how poor the 'Boks were, and the excitement around a new era has quickly returned to the serious concerns about the overall state of the game in South Africa.
Given the state of the home side, I'm not sure Ireland will ever have a better chance to win a series in the southern hemisphere. They are unlikely to play for an hour a man down this week, they look light years ahead in thought and deed and Andy Farrell's arrival has added even more steel to their defence.
The concern this week will be playing on the Highveld, but the Boks have actually lost three of their last five Tests at Ellis Park and the England Saxons showed last week in pulling apart the South Africa 'A' side, that altitude doesn't seem to be as much of a go-to as it used to.
The Irish will have to contend with an incredibly hostile crowd, but if they get in front early the supporters may well end up turning on their own side.
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Having won five of their last seven against the Boks, I'm surprised Sky Bet have given Ireland a 10-point start. Last week, I went for Bok brawn to beat Irish brain and was proved wrong. If they can do it with 14 men, I think Ireland have enough to claim the series on Saturday at 3/1.
Springbok Spark: Faf de Klerk made his debut last weekend at nine for the Boks, but expect him to be full of running on his home patch. He is 9/4 for an anytime try.
All Ireland: Paddy Jackson was superb last week and having claimed three of the four in the first Test (the drop goal looked pre-planned and I'm sure Ireland will attempt again on the Highveld).
I'm going to offer a Jackson full house of a penalty, conversion, drop goal and try. Hail Mary perhaps at juicy odds of 33/1, but we'll Hail Paddy if it comes off.
Watch the opening Summer Tests live on Saturday on Sky Sports 1 HD from 8am - or watch the matches without a contract for £6.99 on NOW TV.
