Alex Payne provides his Six Nations preview and predictions
Friday 3 February 2017 17:25, UK
Sky Sports host Alex Payne provides his views ahead of this weekend's Six Nations kick-off...
England are favourites as they look to repeat their 2016 Grand Slam triumph and extend their winning run under Eddie Jones, which sits at 14 matches ahead of their opener with France on Saturday.
Here's Alex's view on Sky Bet's outright markets and the opening three matches...
Top try scorer
George North (12/1 with Sky Bet) was the top try scorer last year and runner up the previous two seasons. Jonathan Joseph (14/1) was top try scorer in 2015 and second last year; both are likely to be candidates this season.
However, in five of the last seven seasons a winger has been the top try scorer - and I'm drawn to the longer odds of Tommy Seymour at 28/1. I think England might chop and change their wingers through the course of the campaign - with Anthony Watson to come back from injury and Jack Nowell likely to get a run. I'm not sure Wales are in peak form right now, but I think Scotland will benefit from three home games.
With 14 tries in 31 tests for Scotland, and eight in nine in the Pro 12 this season, I think 28/1 offers great value for Seymour.
Top points scorer
Owen Farrell was top marksman ahead of Greig Laidlaw in 2016 and, with Italy as one of three home game for England this season, I think that gives Farrell the edge. He is averaging 17.5 points in his last 11 games under Eddie Jones. Skinny odds at 5/4, but hard to bet against.
Outright
A pound on Scotland at 20/1, with a smash and grab in Paris and three home wins - finishing with a big victory over Italy. But the heavy money goes on England as champions at 5/6.
The bold will add a Grand Slam at Sky Bet's Price Boosted 9/4, but I worry about the trip to Dublin - depending on what sort of shape Ireland are in physically come the final round.
Only five times in the tournament's 134-year history has a side achieved a back-to-back Grand Slam - a note of caution to English optimism. Italy for the wooden spoon.
England v France (Saturday 4.50pm)
Off the back of the perfect 2016, England set off in pursuit of another Grand Slam. I think they will win this weekend against the French, despite obvious signs of progress from across the channel in November.
Les Blues have sparks of brilliance on either wing and are far more prepared to play under Guy Noves. But England have a real clarity from Eddie Jones down, and I think they will be able to snuff out the danger with a strong set piece and an ability to do the right thing at the right time.
No George Kruis and no Billy Vunipola removes them of guile and ballast up front, but the strength in depth means they should cope. England to win with a try bonus point at 2/1.
For England - I keep going for English wingers and with good reason. They have scored 29 tries in the last 24 games for England, so flip a coin over Jonny May or Elliot Daly. I like the extra slither of value on Daly at 6/4, he has a point to prove after the red card against Argentina.
Also worth covering Jonathan Joseph - interestingly, the 13 tries he's scores for England include three doubles and a hat-trick. Rather like buses, if you fancy two to come for England's outside centre he's at 12/1.
French Flair - With Noa Nakaitaci, Gael Fickou and Virimi Vakatawa there are plenty of French fireworks. The brightest seems to be Vakatawa (7/2 anytime) who has scored four tries in his last three tests.
But keep an eye on Baptise Serin at 9 who 5/1 anytime. He is a classy operator and will look to cause England problems around the fringes.
Scotland v Ireland (Saturday 2.25pm)
This is the toughest game to call of round one. Rain is forecast for Saturday which throws the focus on the engines up front. I think Ireland shade that area, but not by much. On the flip side, the Irish have fallen on two of their last three trips to the Scottish capital and the lose an edge without Johnny Sexton.
I have been lulled into a false sense of optimism over Scotland time and time again, but like the gambler that keeps doubling down, I think this might be the year it comes good. Built on the backbone of Glasgow's great form, I fancy the Scots to snatch it by a nose. Scotland by 1-5 at 11/2.
Scottish scorchers - having tipped him as the tournament top try scorer I'm hoping Seymour starts with a bang at 12/1 for the opening try. The tries Ireland concede tend to be out wide - 11 of the last 18 they've let in have been scored by a wing or outside centre - which also brings in Huw Jones (7/2 anytime). Given that he's been playing for the Stormers in South Africa, he is relatively unknown but his youtube highlights are worth a watch, and a double against the Wallabies in November means he won't be in the shadows for long.
Irish industry - CJ Stander has grown in stature over the last 18 months, will be at the forefront of Ireland's gain line charge on Saturday. He has smashed over for five tries this season with Munster and scored three tries in 10 Tests for Ireland including one against Scotland a year ago. He is 11/4 to grab another in round one.
Italy v Wales (Sunday 2pm)
I did briefly flirt with the idea of an Italian win, wooed by their victory over South Africa in November and traditional slow starts for the Welsh. But then you look at the stats - 72 losses in their 85 Six Nations games, two wins over Wales in 17 attempts and a side that is built from Zebre and Treviso - two sides who have managed three wins between them all season.
It is worth remembering that Wales won the title with Rob Howley at the helm in 2013, and they look set up to play a more expansive style of rugby. Italy will be fired up at the start, particularly with Brendan Venter barking at them in defence, but Wales should come through to win by a lap. Those in red by 11-15 at 9/2.
Welsh wizards - George North scored a hat-trick on his last visit to Rome, and was top try scorer in the Six Nations last season. Liam Williams has been the sharpest weapon in Wales' attack over the last year and has scored in his last two games against the Italians.
A nod to the returning Rhys Webb at 13/8 anytime who has also grabbed tries in his last two games against Italy.
Italy inspiration - Play the long odds. Five of Italy's last eight tries have been scored by the front five, which is a fairly obvious arrow to where they will attack from. I'd back Ornel Gega (8/1 anyime), the hooker, who has scored three of the five.
Payne's weekend treble: Scotland, England, Wales all to win - 11/10 with Sky Bet