In a game of Top Trumps, there isn't much comparison between a Lion and a Wallaby. But with the test series fast approaching, what have we learnt about the chances of success for the best of British and Irish? Well quietly, but impressively, they are getting their cards in order.
Ability
And I'm going to stoke those fires. Although the Australian sides are faring pretty well in Super Rugby, the Wallabies won't have a run out prior to the first test so there is a danger of rust and they have also lost some key figures up front - Pocock, Timani and Higginbottom would all have been very likely starters, Polotonau would have brought real impact from the bench.
Robbie Deans' selection hints at safety first, highlighted by the omission of Quade Cooper, but it is worth remembering that there is no international side that has an ability to make as much of their resources as the Wallabies, and they still have enough firepower to win this series twice over.
However, my current leaning is still towards the Lions 2-1, which is
2/1. The continuity that has continued over from 2009 means there is less chat about the 'honour of being a Lion', and an immediate focus on winning the series. Determination has poured out of every interview we've heard from Gatland, and the players understanding of what he wants has clicked quickly.
At the Lions farewell dinner, tour manager Andy Irvine, himself a proud Lion on the 1974 tour to South Africa where the Lions recorded 21 wins out of 22 and drew the last, mentioned the fact that no Lions side has ever returned with a 100% win record. Those are the terms in which the Lions are talking, and interestingly 10 wins out of 10 is available at 5/2.
Early indications are that this will be a series packed with fireworks and, as in 2001, I like the 'Australia and Lions to both score a try in all 3 tests' bet at evens. However, I can't see 4 per test so I'm leaning under 11.5 tries at 5/6.
You can't talk about the Lions at the moment without mentioning the Ashes as well, and for me the Lions winning is the harder part of the equation - the Lions/England double is currently at
11/10.
What a summer in store, and I can't wait to get down there and in the thick of it. More thoughts on the tests to come, but at the moment the Lions look like they're holding a pretty strong hand.
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