Six Nations: Trophy on the line as Ireland head to Cardiff to take on Wales
Saturday 14 March 2015 15:42, UK
Wales and Ireland clash in Cardiff on Saturday knowing that victory for either side will put them on course for a Six Nations title.
If Wales can end Ireland's quest for a record 11th successive win, they will travel to Rome on the final day knowing that a big win could secure a third championship in four years.
However, Ireland have an exceptional record in the Welsh capital, losing there just twice since 1983, and another win for Joe Schmidt's men will see them travel to Murrayfield next weekend with a Grand Slam within their grasp.
Both teams line up as expected at the Millennium Stadium, with Ireland boosted by Jamie Heaslip's return for what will be an attritional breakdown battle.
Johnny Sexton's hamstrings have held up in training and whether he can last the duration could decide the outcome between these two evenly-matched teams.
Ireland have not thrilled the masses with their low-risk kicking game and are the second-lowest try-scorers in this year's championship, but their defence has been near impenetrable, conceding just one try in three games.
But of all the teams in the Six Nations, Wales look best suited to deal with Ireland's aerial assault.
Their back three are superb in the air and fly-half Dan Biggar is also assured under the high ball.
Fine margins
Wales' lineout was excellent in Paris but Paul O'Connell and his pack will put their set piece under serious scrutiny. Ireland's scrum held firm against England and with Cian Healy kept in reserve, their bench looks stronger than their opponents, on paper at least.
But if Wales can get the edge up front, their backs have the potential to cause serious damage. Jamie Roberts and Jonathan Davies got over the gainline at will against France and they will provide the biggest test so far for Ireland's inexperienced centre partnership of Robbie Henshaw and Jared Payne.
Ireland have won their last two outings against Wales, the last a comprehensive 26-3 success in Dublin last year, but the Welsh have not lost two home games in the same championship since 2003.
Ireland also have a poor record under referee Wayne Barnes, who penalised them heavily at scrum time against France, and discipline will once again be a key focus for Schmidt, with Leigh Halfpenny capable of punishing them with the boot.
A kicking contest between Sexton and Halfpenny is predicted, and this game is likely to be decided by fine margins. History is on Ireland's side, but buoyed on by a passionate support, Wales will revel in the role of underdogs on their home patch.
Wales: 15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 George North, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 Liam Williams, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Rhys Webb, 1 Gethin Jenkins, 2 Scott Baldwin, 3 Samson Lee, 4 Luke Charteris, 5 Alun-Wyn Jones, 6 Dan Lydiate, 7 Sam Warburton (c), 8 Toby Faletau.
Replacements: 16 Richard Hibbard, 17 Rob Evans, 18 Aaron Jarvis, 19 Jake Ball, 20 Justin Tipuric, 21 Mike Phillips, 22 Rhys Priestland, 23 Scott Williams.
Ireland: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Tommy Bowe, 13 Jared Payne, 12 Robbie Henshaw, 11 Simon Zebo, 10 Johnny Sexton, 9 Conor Murray; 1 Jack McGrath, 2 Rory Best, 3 Mike Ross, 4 Devin Toner, 5 Paul O'Connell (c), 6 Peter O'Mahony, 7 Sean O'Brien, 8 Jamie Heaslip.
Replacements: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 Cian Healy, 18 Martin Moore, 19 Iain Henderson, 20 Jordi Murphy, 21 Eoin Reddan, 22 Ian Madigan, 23 Felix Jones.
