Rugby Championship by numbers
Friday 17 August 2018 12:45, UK
Sky Sports' rugby statistician, Rhodri Jeremiah, takes a closer look at how New Zealand's history of dominance compares with the resurgence of South Africa and Australia ahead of this year's Rugby Championship...
The burning question everyone is asking ahead of this year's Rugby Championship is: Can anyone beat New Zealand?
If last year is anything to go by, it's not going to be easy. In 2017, Steve Hansen's side won all six of their fixtures in the tournament. They had the best attack, scoring 246 points including 35 tries, and had the best defence, conceding only 119 points and letting in just 14 tries.
Australia were next best with two wins, two draws and two losses. They scored 25 tries in a tally of 195 total points, conceding 179 points and 22 tries.
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To put these figures into some sort of context, New Zealand finished the tournament on 28 points, securing four try bonus-points along the way, and Australia trailed by a massive 13 competition points after a mere six rounds.
In last year's tournament, New Zealand averaged the most carries (132), the most metres (602m), beat the most defenders (34) and had the best tackle success rate (87%). In addition, Rieko Ioane shared the spoils with Israel Folau as the top try-scorer in the competition with five to his name. He also made the most metres (649m), beat the most defenders (35), and also made the most line breaks (17).
Argentina's discipline
Argentina finished bottom of the pile last year, losing all six of their matches. The Pumas averaged the fewest carries (107), the fewest metres made (344m), beat the fewest defenders (17), and ranked bottom for offloads (11).
Discipline was also an issue for the Pumas; both Ramiro Herrera and Tomas Lavanini were the worst offenders in the competition last season, conceding eight penalties apiece.
The Argentines do, however, have a new man in charge in Mario Ledesma, and time will tell as to whether or not he will change their fortunes. Ledesma led the Jaguares to the quarter-finals of Super Rugby earlier this year, the first time the South Americans have ever made the play-offs.
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However, despite Ledesma's pedigree, last is where the Pumas will likely end up given the ever-improving form of South Africa and Australia.
Repeat of history?
Round 1 in 2017 saw Australia host New Zealand in Sydney and every Australian will be hoping that there isn't a repeat of that performance come this Saturday.
The world champions were ruthless in attack from the opening minutes and led 40-6 at half-time with a double apiece from Rieko Ioane and Ryan Crotty as well as scores from Liam Squire and Sonny Bill Williams.
Australia put up a brave fight in the second half with Curtis Rona, Tevita Kuridrani, Kurtley Beale and Israel Folau all crossing over to make the final score a somewhat more respectable 54-34 in New Zealand's favour, but it was still a day to forget for the Wallabies.
Australia's Super Rugby form
Michael Cheika's side were, however, the last side to beat the All Blacks back in October in Bledisloe III in Brisbane, and there's currently plenty of confidence in the Aussie camp following their franchises' much-improved displays in Super Rugby this season. The Waratahs were beaten semi-finalists, while the Brumbies and Rebels narrowly missed out on play-off places.
Also, the return of Michael Hooper will see him reprise his formidable partnership with David Pocock. In this year's Super Rugby season, Pocock was ranked third for turnovers (23) behind Kwagga Smith (31) and Malcolm Marx (27) despite playing only 10 games in comparison with Smith and Marx, who played 18 and 16 respectively.
One cause for concern for the Wallabies will be the lack of centre experience, with Samu Kerevi and Tevita Kuridrani both ruled out due to injury.
However, with Israel Folau, Kurtley Beale and Bernard Foley available, it will take a brave punter to bet against Australia finishing lower than second.
Their individual stats paint a picture; Foley was top points scorer overall in Super Rugby 2018, Beale was second overall for try-assists and third overall for carries, while Folau was in the top ten for metres made (1102m) and top five for offloads (25), as well as dotting down for 11 tries in 14 appearances.
South Africa's missing man
The Springboks, fresh from their summer series win over England, will be hoping to shake up the status quo in this year's tournament, but without the colossal Duane Vermeulen at the back of the scrum, third place seems most likely.
Vermeulen was South Africa's stand-out player against Eddie Jones' side, carrying 30 times across the three Tests and beating nine defenders while making 96 metres with the ball. The Japan-bound loose forward also scored a try in the second Test.
It wasn't just with the ball that he was effective; the 32-year old was also the Boks' best at the breakdown in terms of turnovers in two of the three Tests.
However, Rassie Erasmus does have players in his squad who offer similar skills. Two of his Springboks were top overall for Super Rugby offloads this year - Jean-Luc du Preez ranked first with 31 offloads in 11 games, and RG Snyman was second with 27 offloads in 14 appearances.
And as mentioned, Marx was second only behind Lions colleague Smith for turnovers won, and scored more tries than any other forward in Super Rugby this season with 12.
If South Africa are to challenge for top spot, they need their star players to step up, but as 2017 saw New Zealand win their fifth Rugby Championship title in six years, it will be a tough ask.
Will it be another clean sweep for the Kiwis? I, for one, believe it will be.
