Rugby World Cup: Alex Payne's England v Wales preview and bets
Saturday 26 September 2015 20:08, UK
Sky Sports host Alex Payne brings us his preview for Saturday's action at the Rugby World Cup as England and Wales clash at Twickenham, and South Africa look to bounce back...
For two opponents who know each other so well and have been preparing for months, there is a fair amount of the unknown coming into Saturday night's game between England and Wales. Amazingly, both countries have seven new faces from their 6 Nations meeting in February, and a lot of the form lines go with those changes.
Like all big Rugby World Cup games, I think this will be a desperate scrap - a brutal battle of nerve, physicality and goal kicking.
Both sides have won nine of their last 12, and both are set up for power and defence rather than flair and attack. Like all big Rugby World Cup games, I think this will be a desperate scrap - a brutal battle of nerve, physicality and goal kicking.
Under suffocating tension, try-scoring chances may well be few and far between (no try is worth a look at 16/1 with Sky Bet). But if you like to bet on trends, of the last 17 tries scored in this fixture, 16 have been scored by backs - and eight of those have gone to men wearing 14. That brings Anthony Watson (15/8 anytime) and George North (9/4 anytime) into play.
If you like to bet on the headline makers, Sam Burgess writes them wherever he goes and I like the 14/1 for him to score the first try. There is also good value to be found on Billy Vunipola, Price Boosted to 9/2 for an anytime try. Fitness depending, the sharpest tool in Warren Gatland's toolbox is Liam Williams, who is also 9/2 to cross. There is also a strong case to consider Owen Farrell as man of the match if it comes down to the boot - 4/1 is your potential return.
This will be sport at its most compelling. England have won three of the last four at Twickenham and I think home support will carry them to the victory again, by 6-10 at 9/2.
Springboks to get out of the blocks?
Are you backing a Bok backlash or another South African slump? My esteemed colleague Thinus Delport thinks the Boks are in a deep hole, with head coach Heyneke Meyer dropping the wrong players from the Japan debacle. They have lost five of their last six tests, an astonishing stat for one of the big three, and there is a real vulnerability about them.
Having said that, they have won eight out of eight against Samoa, and Bryan Habana has scored an amazing seven tries in his last three tests against them (11/4 for another double). Given that all four tries the Boks scored last week came from the forwards, it is also worth considering the likes of Vermeulen and Louw. For the men of Manu, Alesana Tuilagi has only scored one in his last eight tests but brings box office physicality and odds of 11/4 for an anytime try, but I would play the electric Tim Nanai Williams again at 5/2 anytime.
Samoa are not an easy outfit to face, they pushed the All Blacks hard in the summer and opened with a solid win over the USA. I think they will get within their +21 point handicap, but I'm not sure they have enough to win. Boks to edge home by 6-10 at 15/2.
