Barnes: The Wilkinson gamble
Stuart Barnes looks ahead to the Calcutta Cup and a timely recall for Jonny Wilkinson.
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It has been England that has made the headlines in the build up to the 6 Nations. Struggling off the field, Brian Ashton's selection has renewed interest in the team with the recall of Jonny Wilkinson. Forty minutes off the bench for Newcastle was enough for a recall next Saturday. A bold decision but is it the right one?
Two things in favour of it - neither Toby Flood nor Shane Geraghty are mature fly-halves in their prime. There was a sense that either selection carried a high risk into the Calcutta Cup. Both youngsters are talented in contrasting ways, both are works in progress. Secondly, when Wilkinson was recalled as captain after being in the injured wilderness, it was at the expense of another fly-half, Charlie Hodgson, who was playing beautifully, there seemed no point taking the risk. With Hodgson injured and again having test credentials questioned by the national coaches, this is an overwhelmingly different scenario.
I wrote two things in favour but as I write a third comes to mind; the other high risk selection of Andy Farrell at 12. Ashton has great faith in the Saracen but with so little game time to his name the strength of mind of Wilkinson inside cannot but be of assistance.
However, against it is the fact he has played so little rugby. A half against a weakened Leicester and then the Calcutta Cup, it is quite a statement on behalf of the Premiership. But in reality the pressures of Test rugby are mental and it is in the mind that the step up is the greatest and Wilkinson has - if nothing - a strong will.
He should and will not be fazed by a full house. The injuries have been constant but the recent ones have not involved the neck which was affecting his game severely. On his earliest comebacks he was simply not the same man but for forty minutes on Saturday he looked the part and Richard Hill of Bristol says his team were shredded by him on his previous comeback where his footwork and speed of mind looked as sharp as ever.
Should England take a pastoral view and ease him back into it? Or should they do as they have done and throw him in at the deep end. Wilkinson undoubtedly said he was ready and Ashton listened. Recent form and the current state of affairs in England dictate it was probably the right call. Undoubtedly the manager's call, if the lightly played Wilkinson, the inexperienced Farrell and the not particularly inspired Jason Robinson and Iain Balshaw fail, there will be inquiries.
I back him on the 10/12 situation, I am not sure that Robinson and Balshaw deserve the call-up. It is whether this team creates opportunities for them on which I am going to judge the success or otherwise of the team. Winning is all, is all we are being told. But Scotland is away, with injuries and uncertain. As world champions the bar can be raised a bit, even if this is the first game of a new era. The faces are hardly fresh - I expect a convincing performance with a simple structure to the game. Forwards playing closer to the pack, backs running direct off Wilkinson and Farrell's distribution and broken fields being exploited when the battering boys have created them.
Elsewhere, I think Italy could push France all the way. Thinking about the Italian pack and the nerves of a French team without direction, this could be the shock of the tournament. As for Sunday, Ireland's Grand Slam aspirations are tested in Cardiff. I think they have the self belief to win which will make the Grand Slam a serious target. All this and the return of Super 14s. Should be good.
Now to this week's mail...
UNDER THE POSTS: STUART ANSWERS YOUR EMAIL...
THE NUMBERS GAME
Stuart, How do you see the inside backs lining up for England? My initial thoughts would be to have Andy Farrell at 12, as he may the only chance England have of igniting a backline to compete in the World Cup. However, with a likely debutant at 10 should Brian Ashton go for a bit more experience with say Mike Catt at 12? Would this be tempered at all by any of the choices at 9 or 13? My opinion is to go for broke and give ourselves a chance of winning the World Cup. Especially when we have Scotland and Italy first up as (with respect) weaker opposition to start with. How would your choice of England team line-up from the announced squad? Finally, how is it that you always seem to be annoyingly right? Trevor Ashworth, London
STUART SAYS: Trevor, I don't think Ashton sees Farrell at inside centre as `going for broke' because the former league man has such good basics, which is exactly what Mike Tindall and Jamie Noon did not possess at 12 in the last two years. Going for broke is selecting 12s without vision or passing skills...of course, there are plenty other ways in which Farrell is a gamble but any more than anyone other than Mike Catt, who has all the experience but lacks the pace to threaten before passing, enabling defenders to drift. Farrell has little pace but extra bulk and will challenge the gain line with physical presence. I see Toby Flood at 10. He has more experience at fly-half and a composed mind. Importantly also a better goal kicking record in recent months. If England are intent on pacy physicality I guess Mike Tindall's improved form makes him the leading contender at 13, picking angles off Farrell, although I maintain reservations due to the shoddy distribution skills.
WHO'S BETTER?
Stuart, With the thought of having a sneaky bet on the World Cup, I thought I would look at the early prices especially before the 6 Nations kicks off. Now don't faint because although I am a proud Scots lad, I actually fancy a small flutter on England! Not being a professional gambler I look at getting a decent bet and at 20/1 I think England are a good price at this. I think England have the ability to compete with the top teams on their day and let's face it, they can't get any worse! It is my feeling England will have a good 6 Nations (apart from a Scottish thrashing at Twickers obviously) and their price will be slashed. I also think some stars will emerge in Farrell etc and maybe a Wilkinson return just at the right time? Now, not thinking they are serious contenders BUT at 20/1 isn't that worth a wee punt - also as a Scot I could at least stomach another win as long as I was profitting from it! What would your outside bets be other than the obvious New Zealand? Ali
STUART SAYS: Ali, Exemplary logic. I agree with all that you say about England, except for one point, any bet is poor value unless it is likely to come in and England will not because the All Blacks are so superior to any team that even with a bad day, they will prevail. If they were to have an unbearably awful day, I would keep an eye on South Africa who I believe are decent odds. But one thing else, where's your loyalty man?
REDS NOT DEAD
Dear Stuart, It looks like you are starting to lose faith with Munster after one blip. Not taking away from a super performance from the Tigers (that did not involve hands this time), you have to take into account they had already qualified and don't fear anyone home or away, something we have seen time and again. Leinster as well can go all the way should their forward play continue to improve as it has been showing signs of doing, so I feel your picks are spot on, except for those French Lads! My question is this however: for years now, Ireland have lived in the shadow of England on a rugby pitch but we have never offered the excuses they have. I remember reading during a World Cup the England camp complaining that they had a harder run to the final than they would have liked. How can you consider yourselves World Champions if you shy away from the big games? I thank you for the support you have shown Ireland coming into this year's World Cup and there is belief that we can go further than ever before. What final would you like to see based on recent performances? Finally, will you make it to Croker for a game? Have you ever been there? I will look forward to your thoughts on our flagship if you ever catch a game there! Ian Byrne, Ireland, Leinster and Munster
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STUART SAYS: Ian, Far from shying away, I have stuck with Munster because of their great ability to learn at speed from defeats. I see Tigers versus Munster as a likely semi-final and one from which the tournament winners will come. As for England, I am not sure what complaining we are talking other than the internal ones used in the last two years. That team was world champions in name only. But Martin Johnson's team was the real deal. I would like a North versus South final with New Zealand playing probably Ireland because Ireland, if they make the final, will have to play some dazzling rugby to overcome a much targeted scrum. Maybe they will be up to it. However, I am foremost a fan of the game and if Wales or England can produce a memorable team this 6 Nations, which plays smart and powerful rugby, then let them carry the European burden...actually, come to think of it, as a rugby man, maybe its Argentina to face the All Blacks and force the authorities to take notice. Unlikely I know.
As for Croke Park Ian, wild two-mile hurdlers wouldn't keep me away from both games this season.
Thanks to you all other who wrote in.
Have a fine week, Stuart Barnes
