Rupert Cox looks at the winners and losers from the autumn internationals
Monday 1 December 2014 18:08, UK
Each New Year we are warned that the third Monday of January is the most depressing day of the year. The Christmas Tree has gone, the weather is rank, we’re back in the office fat, hungover, and broke – there is nothing to make us smile.
Hogwash! Compared to today, that January Monday is the tinkling laughter of a rosy-cheeked infant. For today, friends, the autumn internationals are over. Today is Blue Monday. Today, I am bereft.
So, as some kind of therapy, to talk us all back from the edge – here’s a quick glance at next year’s real World Cup contenders, after what has been another wonderful series of November internationals…
New Zealand: 4 from 4 in Autumn; world number one; Top Dogs
No team has EVER successfully defended a World Cup – but if there is a team to break that record and do it, it’s New Zealand. There are some rugby hacks and a few former players out there who love to point out that the All Blacks have never won a World Cup outside NZ, as if that somehow undermines their achievements. Yawn. Just two defeats since the 2011 final, and just look at some the names that have joined the All Black roster since then – Dane Coles, Brodie Retallick, Aaron Smith, Beauden Barrett, Ben Smith, Malakai Fekitoa. That’s the spine of an awesome international side even without the world-beating experience of Owen, Richie, Kieran, Conrad, Jerome and Ma’a. They can play in all conditions, in all situations, they are forever raising the bar: they are the team to beat. There is a chance NZ might run into France in Cardiff at next year’s quarter-final – bringing back some bad memories for fans of the sliver fern – but these All Blacks know how to play high stakes knock-out rugby. It won’t happen again.
Springboks: 2 from 4; second in the world; Underwhelming
A bit of a mixed Bok bag this November. A flat beginning against Ireland, two solid if not overly impressive wins against England and Italy, and then a season-ending loss to Wales in Cardiff – a Test played outside the international window without their French-based stars. The Boks weren’t at their best this autumn, but they will, of course, be a major contender next year. They remain the only team who sincerely believe they are better than the All Blacks, and have big room for improvement. Francois Louw will add plenty when he returns from injury, as will Fourie du Preez at scrum-half. The bad news is the likely loss of Jean de Villiers for RWC 2015 – it was a properly horrible injury to their talismanic leader against Wales – how cruel it would be for such a great player (and such a gracious bloke) to miss yet another World Cup. No matter how much cash the SARU made out of playing a Test match outside of the international window (about £750,000 apparently) it’s a huge price to pay. Victor Matfield might finally get to lead South Africa into a major tournament – but not the way he would have wanted.
Ireland: 3 from 3; third in the world; Smiling
Ireland are the form team of Europe, of that there is no doubt. A clean sweep in November, including wins over South Africa, Georgia and Australia, is no small achievement – but it is the style with which they achieved it that tells us most. Joe Schmidt has Ireland playing with enormous intensity and great intelligence – you could just see the homework that went into those crucial moments against the Boks and Wallabies. Every plan executed to perfection and backed up by that brutal never-say-die defence. The O’Driscoll retirement seems to have been resolved with Robbie Henshaw looking like the find of the autumn. Ireland look the real deal, but success next year relies on keeping key players fit. Mike Ross, Paul O’Connell, Johnny Sexton, Connor Murray to name but a few. With the likes of Cian Healy, Sean O'Brien and Donnacha Ryan still to return from injury – big things can be expected in 2015. Can they handle the extra pressure of expectation? Joe Schmidt is keen to play it all down; the elevation to the third ranked team in the world – their highest for eight years – Schmidt called a ‘distraction’. Smart play Joe. We all know what happened the last time Ireland went to a World Cup as one of the fancied teams – they failed to get out of their Pool. Ireland have never reached the semi-finals of a world cup. They will in 2015.
England: 2 from 4; fourth in the world; Wiser
You know those YouTube clips that go viral, of two animals fighting in the wild? Lion vs Crocodile is my favourite – two diametric species fighting for their lives. I got the same feeling watching England play Australia on Saturday – I call it Rhino vs Leopard, and the rhino won – in the end, the Wallaby flair was cancelled out by England’s power up front. England might be limited, but they know their limitations, and that will serve them well next year. Big, superbly-drilled forwards who will give everything all day, backs who can defend and kick chase. It must have been a huge relief for the England coaching staff to realise they don’t have to impersonate the All Blacks to be any good.
The losses to New Zealand and South Africa looked close on the scoreboard, but in reality they were far wider. The win over Samoa served as little more than an excuse to test the floodlights and to give George Ford a chance at fly-half – and the Bath man took it with both hands. He has been the real England success this November, and he must be given time to make the 10 shirt his own. Knowing your limits is useful in life, much better than delusionally insisting you can be something you’re not. Playing at home, on soft grounds, with a fly-half who knows how to put them in the right areas – England are a chance. Rhinos aren’t the prettiest creatures on the planet. But they sure can be effective.
Australia: 1 from 4; fifth in the world; Disadvantaged
When asked about Australia’s perennial problems with the scrum, Michael Cheika replied, “it is what it is – we just have to deal with it.” There is now an acceptance in Australian rugby that scrum issues can’t be fixed, they have to be played around, and the team must make up for it by excelling everywhere else. Some of the attacking rugby the Wallabies have played this autumn has been absolutely superb – they try things in Test matches that most other rugby nations wouldn’t dare attempt at a training session. The Phipps try, for example, in the comeback against Ireland, the Foley score at Twickenham – proper get-you-out-of-your-seat rugby. It’s criminal that that sort of brilliance is not allowed to shine, but instead must constantly be making up for deficiencies in other areas. The return of injured hooker’s Stephen Moore and Tatafu Polota-Nau will be of massive help, but until the issue is properly addressed at junior level in Australian rugby, this will continue to happen every World Cup cycle. The cracks have been papered over for too long.
Wales: 2 from 4; sixth in the world; Relieved
The southern hemisphere monkey has finally been removed from Wales’ back, and that could prove crucial next year. No matter how much Gatland and co. spin it, their inability to get a result against Australia, South Africa or New Zealand had become chronic, and no matter how many questions were dodged or ignored at the post-match press conferences, the issue would just not go away. Since the Springboks were readmitted into the international rugby family in 1992, Wales have now won just four Tests against the Big Three, so no underestimating how important beating one of them has been for them with the World Cup approaching. Rhys Webb and Dan Biggar at Nos 9 and 10 are the combination to take this Welsh team forward.
France: 2 from 3; seventh in the world; Unpredictable
France – so frustrating. Les Bleus looked like they were finally getting their act together this November, then standards slipped once again when they faced Argentina. Still an unknown quantity ten months out from a World Cup, but… you just can’t ever write the French off. They were a rabble at the end of the 2011 World Cup, but somehow managed to get through to the final, and almost ending up winning it. They need to get fit in the summer when the Top14 winds up, and Camille Lopez needs to be told the 10 shirt is his to keep.
Brickbat
Warren Gatland, when questioned by a female reporter on Wales’ breakdown, replied with: “And how many breakdowns have you been in recently?” Would he have responded that way if it had been a bloke asking him the question? Discuss.
Bouquet
David Pocock – arrested in Australia after chaining himself to a digger at a coal-mine in New South Wales during an environmental protest. The injured 46 Test capped Wallaby was locked to machinery for over ten hours before being taken away by police. Pocock always been difficult to remove from the tackle area but this is something else. And it’s refreshing, and unusual, to see a pro rugby player have passions outside the game; a career in politics surely beckons.
