England are almost certain to be named hosts of the 2015 Rugby World Cup on Tuesday.
IRB council decide on Tuesday
England are almost certain to be named hosts of the 2015 Rugby World Cup.
The International Rugby Board council are due to meet in Dublin on Tuesday to decide on the host nation.
The Rugby Football Union are understood to have received enough expressions of support to earn up to 17 votes from the 26-man council and beat off the challenge from South Africa and Italy.
Barring any dramatic late political horse-trading, the IRB are expected to ratify the recommendation made by the board of Rugby World Cup Ltd in Tuesday's first vote and confirm England as 2015 hosts with Japan to stage the 2019 World Cup.
England's bid was guaranteed four votes because the RFU and the Welsh Rugby Union, who have made the Millennium Stadium available for the tournament, have two each.
Crucially, the RFU's bidding team believe they have now secured support from South Africa's SANZAR partners New Zealand and Australia plus Ireland and France.
Talks between the RFU and Scotland, whose request for inclusion in an England bid was turned down on financial grounds, were said to be ongoing on Monday evening.
But England also hope to count on Japan and Asia - who in backing the recommendation would also be voting for themselves in 2019 - plus votes from Canada, the north America region and the federation of European unions.
A senior RFU source said: "If they all do what they have promised then we are through the barrier."
England last hosted the World Cup in 1991, although they did stage matches in 1999, including both semi-finals at Twickenham, when it was officially Wales' tournament.
Football grounds
If England are rubber-stamped as hosts, the 2015 World Cup final would be staged at Twickenham but the RFU have already reached agreement to use eight of the country's leading football grounds including Wembley, Old Trafford, Anfield and the Emirates Stadium.
It is understood the RFU would also consider including the Olympic Stadium in their plans if 2012 officials decide against reducing its capacity to 25,000 after the Games.
The RFU had their fingers burned badly in losing out to France for the 2007 World Cup but returned to the table for 2015 with a stronger financial bid than any of their rivals.
England's "low risk, high return" World Cup bid earned the initial RWCL recommendation because it is projected to generate £300million for the IRB, who rely on the tournament for 98 percent of their income.
On top of the £80million tournament fee, the "mature" UK market would attract a further £220million in commercial returns from broadcasting, sponsorship and merchandising.
That figure is understood to be at least 20 percent more than the bids from either South Africa or Italy and 50 percent greater than France generated from the 2007 World Cup.
The RFU also believe they can sell 2.8million tickets - the highest number of any 2015 bidding nation - and at the second-lowest average price.
The RWCL recommendations were based on a detailed analysis of all four bids for 2015 from sports business experts Deloittes, marketing and broadcasting giants IMG and global legal form Clifford Chance.
The 71-page document showed a successful England bid would allow the IRB to maximise their income from as-yet-unsold television rights for the 2011 World Cup in New Zealand by packaging the two tournaments together.
IRB council members have also been advised the £300million boost to the global game from an England World Cup would lay solid financial foundations and allow the game to break new ground by taking the 2019 World Cup to Japan.
Secret ballot
Despite all that, England are not counting their chickens ahead of Tuesday's secret ballot. South Africa were upset at losing out on the recommendation and have been lobbying hard.
South Africa have been pressing home the fact they have secured government support totalling £130million - £50million more than the tournament fee - compared to the £25million Westminster has made available to the RFU.
Mark Alexander, chairman of the South African bid committee said: "Rugby World Cup expressed an emphatic preference for a government-underwritten minimum tournament fee of £80million for 2015... we have given them government-backed guarantees of £110million.
"The most important thing to note is that the IRB put tender specifications in place for very good reasons and South Africa met them all.
"The requirements are shaped to the commercial and developmental needs of the game and we still believe that South Africa offers not only a guaranteed financial success but also a significant dividend in terms of rugby development that cannot be easily overlooked.
"Commercially we are convinced a South African tournament - in the ideal European time zone - would match an English or Japanese event."
The RFU have been reminding council members, not only are Twickenham good for the guarantee, but that is only one portion of the estimated £300million boost to the global game England could offer.
"Since the recommendation we have been speaking to all the other unions to go through any issues they had with our bid," said the senior RFU source.
"There are still some people who are asking: 'Is a British government guarantee for £25million as strong as a full South African or Italian government guarantee?' and whether it matters.
"I think it is strong enough but in a way the guarantee is only a very small part of it.
"There is broadcasting rights, there is advertising and sponsorship and there is hospitality. England will strip anyone out on all three of those issues."
