Ireland vs Italy (Round 4); Italy vs England, France vs Ireland (both Round 5) postponed
Wednesday 11 March 2020 16:46, UK
Three Six Nations fixtures have been postponed due to the threats of coronavirus, and in a packed rugby schedule, it will be some time before they can be played again. Here's whats likely to happen next...
In the immediate short term, there is still one championship fixture which will go ahead this weekend in the form of Wales vs Scotland in Cardiff on Saturday at 2.15pm.
There had been some reports and rumours - largely emanating out of France - all Round 5 fixtures were to be called off and rearranged, but the Cardiff Test will go ahead.
The difficulties of refunding and reselling tickets in the Welsh capital would have been an added unnecessary headache, and for a clash which will have no material impact on this year's title, holding it back too would have been a nonsense.
Even still, we will have a 'Super Saturday' containing just one part of three this weekend, with both Italy vs England from Rome and France vs Ireland from Paris off - one of England, France and Ireland will be champions whenever the Tests do finally get staged.
The question as to when the games could be played is far from straightforward and remains unconfirmed.
That is so because the rugby calendar is one of the busiest of any sport already. Between March 21 and June 20, each and every weekend will either contain domestic club or final action or European Cup games.
The 2020 Top 14 final is not then until June 26, before the international summer tours kick off on the weekends of July 4 and July 11 (England tour Japan, Ireland tour Australia, Wales tour New Zealand, Scotland tour South Africa, France tour Argentina, Italy tour North America).
Italy will also play a further Test on the weekend of July 18 in Argentina.
Thereafter, having been going from August 2019 to July 2020, the players will require a much-needed off-season.
The 2020/2021 domestic club seasons will then kick into gear before long - the Top 14 as early as late August, the Premiership and PRO14 more likely September.
The opening two rounds of the 2020/21 European Cup are then scheduled for October 16/17/18 and October 23/24/25, while the opening weekend of the 2020 autumn Tests is November 7 (England vs New Zealand, Ireland vs Australia, France vs Georgia, Italy vs South Africa).
Consequently, the only possible available weekend, and the one which has been widely mooted, is October 31 - immediately after the second round of European Cup pool games and immediately before the November Tests.
Having originally been scheduled for March 14, 2020, the earliest Italy vs England and France vs Ireland could be put on is likely October 31, 2020 therefore.
But what of the Ireland vs Italy game?
As mentioned above, there appears just a one-week window when these fixtures could be played, but what about the Round 4 Ireland vs Italy clash that was the first to be postponed?
The weekend of October 24/25 would appear impossible currently due to the European Cup second round of pool games taking place during that time - so reports of Ireland vs Italy kicking off a week before October 31 must be wide of the mark at this stage.
It's a very messy set of affairs for World Rugby, the Six Nations, EPCR and individual unions to sort out. There is an extra week in November - weekend of the 28/29 - when only two games - England vs Australia and Wales vs South Africa - are going ahead, leaving Ireland and Italy free.
But this would see the Ireland vs Italy Test happen after the two Round 5 games, which is far from optimal as the title could be already decided.
We await clarity on this one.
As ludicrous as this situation appears, we have actually had something similar in the Six Nations before.
Back in 2001, three Tests were postponed - the cause then being an outbreak of the highly infectious livestock disease foot and mouth in Britain.
As a result, and due to the vital importance of the farming industry on the Irish economy, Ireland's three games against the home unions (having had Rounds 1 and 2 against Italy and France) were called off.
The tournament finished in April 2001, and it was not until the following September and October 2001 that the games were put on.
Ireland travelled to Scotland and lost heavily on September 22, before going on to win in Cardiff (October 13) and beat Grand Slam-chasing England in Dublin on October 20 2001.
Ireland had come into their first rearranged game cold, while England had arrived with injuries and cold themselves by the third rearranged game. Such a set of circumstances highlighted how a championship can be completely altered.
Whenever the three lost games from 2020 do get staged, there will be a different set of injuries, different confidence levels and camps in different head-spaces. It's far from ideal.
The current table, after France's costly defeat in Scotland, reads very well for England - particularly with their remaining game against Italy.
Had Ireland's game against the Italians gone ahead in Round 4, they would likely be top on 14 points, but the difficulty of Paris awaits too.
England are likely to end up on 18 points, with them odds on to pick-up a bonus-point win in Rome, while France could also end up on 18 if they beat Ireland and put four tries past them. Crucially though, Eddie Jones' team (+15) already hold a points difference lead over France (+13), and that is ahead of facing Italy, where they will target a boat load of points.
Ireland have Italy at home, and so will look to win big there and improve their points difference (+5) to a huge degree also, while if Andy Farrell's side can win with bonus-points at home to Italy and away to France, they will be crowned champions come what may elsewhere.
A France win over Ireland without a bonus-point is unlikely to be enough, while they would require a major win over Ireland to trouble England's prospective points difference too one would imagine.
How significant does England's losing bonus-point in Paris look now? Cast your minds back to France scrum-half Antoine Dupont kicking the ball dead 48 seconds early in the mistaken belief the game was over, and Owen Farrell kicking between the posts two minutes into dead time to narrow the gap to seven and seal a point.
It could and likely will decide the champions.
The championship finale is set-up perfectly, though we still do not officially know when for! October is the best bet.
