PRO12 permutations: Who needs what in final round of fixtures?
Saturday 7 May 2016 19:57, UK
The Guinness PRO12 regular season is set for a thrilling conclusion on Saturday, with plenty at stake in all six Round 22 fixtures.
Ten of the 12 teams still have something to play for, from the battle between defending champions Glasgow, Connacht and Leinster for a home semi-final to Munster, Ospreys and Edinburgh's chase for the final Champions Cup spot.
So who needs what on Saturday afternoon? Let's look at the permutations…
Top-two contenders
Glasgow and Connacht have already qualified for the play-offs and their meeting at the Sportsground will decide who has home advantage in the semi-finals.
The Warriors sit two points ahead of Pat Lam's men at the PRO12 summit after a sparking run of form that has seen them win nine games in succession.
Glasgow are the top tryscorers in this season's competition with 67, with Connacht in second place on 58. The teams served up a seven-try thriller when they met in round two, Glasgow winning 33-32, and another high-scoring classic is predicted in Galway.
While Connacht and Glasgow do battle out west, Leinster know a bonus-point win over Treviso will guarantee a home semi-final.
Treviso stunned Connacht last weekend to move ahead of Zebre in the battle for Champions Cup qualification, but they not have beaten Leinster since September 2010.
Play-off push
With Leinster expected to make short work of Treviso, that leaves Ulster and Scarlets battling it out for the final play-off spot.
Both teams will be hoping for favours from their fellow countrymen, with Ulster travelling to the Ospreys while Munster host the Scarlets in Thomond Park.
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Four wins in five games has propelled Ulster into top-four contention and they have lost just one of their last five fixtures against the Ospreys.
Should Les Kiss' men claim a bonus-point victory at the Liberty Stadium it will confirm a play-off spot, but anything less and the Scarlets could capitalise.
The Scarlets have 63 points, one less than Ulster, which means they must gain maximum points in Thomond Park. They have won three of their last four games against Munster but you have to go back to September 2003 for their last victory in Limerick.
Champions Cup chase
There is a three-way battle between Munster, Ospreys and Edinburgh for the final Champions Cup place.
Munster have been ever-presents in Europe's top-tier competition and currently sit sixth on 58 points, four ahead of the Ospreys and five ahead of Edinburgh.
The Irish province's last defeat at Thomond Park was against Leinster on December 27 and a 13th league win of an underwhelming campaign will secure the last Champions Cup spot.
The Ospreys have given themselves an outside chance of Champions Cup rugby next season with three successive bonus-point victories. Another maximum haul against Ulster would make things interesting, while Edinburgh also need five points from their home clash with Cardiff Blues.
Should the teams finish level on points, and wins, it will come down to points difference, which currently favours the Ospreys.
Basement battle
You could make a strong argument against including either one of Benetton Treviso or Zebre in next season's Champions Cup following pitiful campaigns.
One point separates the Italian strugglers at the foot of the PRO12 standings. Treviso sit 11th after last week's win over Connacht but they are unlikely to add to their 20 points away to Leinster.
Zebre will fancy their chances against a Dragons side with nothing to play for. Even a losing bonus-point could be enough for the Parma-based outfit as they have won more games than Treviso.
