The changing landscape of Test rugby
Wednesday 22 November 2017 15:54, UK
Two years ago, we had an all-southern hemisphere semi-final line-up at the 2015 Rugby World Cup and were told the gap between the northern and southern hemispheres was vast and an insurmountable chasm. But where do we stand today?
Of course, when that rather convenient assessment was made by many two years ago, the fact that Scotland came within seconds of victory over Australia and Wales within five minutes of progression against South Africa was given minimal reference.
Ireland too, albeit heavily depleted, had succumbed to Argentina at the quarter-final stage while England became the first Rugby World Cup hosts in history to exit at the pool stage.
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A lot has changed since that tournament, however, and actually the argument could be made that the apparently monumental gap which existed is now nowhere to be found.
Springbok and French demise
The obvious place to begin would be Ireland's crushing victory at home to South Africa, but this must be offset by the fact the Springboks are in a vastly different space, under different management and at the end of their season.
We should not forget, for example, that Ireland beat South Africa the last time they were in Dublin in November 2014, before the Boks reached the semi-finals of the World Cup and lost out to the eventual winners New Zealand by just two points.
The surprise comes in the nature of Ireland's 38-3 victory; the dominance of their display and the feebleness of the Springbok resistance.
Have Ireland improved in those two years? Undoubtedly. But have South Africa regressed? Unequivocally.
Under Allister Coetzee, the Springboks have only won 10 games, seven of which came against France and Argentina, who are now eighth and 10th in the world respectively.
History-making losses to Italy, at home to Ireland (and away), away to Argentina and against New Zealand (twice) have all occurred on Coetzee's watch, as have further defeats to Wales and Australia.
So if Ireland and South Africa were to meet in the quarter-final stages of the 2019 World Cup, would the result be the same? Absolutely not.
Would Ireland be favourites? Probably, and that indicates a clear shift in world rugby.
Up in this part of the world, we have our own giant seemingly in demise.
Akin to football's Premier League in England, the Top 14 in France and its success in attracting the best players from around the world has inadvertently damaged the national side.
France have yet to adequately challenge for a Six Nations title since they last won the championship in 2010, and have only finished in the top two once since then, and that was 2011.
In the same time frame, French clubs have appeared in the final of the European Cup on seven occasions.
Under Guy Noves, France have now lost 13 of their 20 Tests. Troubling times for Les Bleus.
All Black selections
On Saturday, New Zealand overcame Scotland at Murrayfield in an absorbing contest, with Gregor Townsend's side potentially a Stuart Hogg offload away from an historic victory.
The significance of this occasion, though, was perhaps not in the closeness of the result - we've had close calls between an All Black XV and Scotland teams before - but in the New Zealand side selected by Steve Hansen.
If you cast your mind back to the last time Scotland hosted the All Blacks - November 2014 - Greig Laidlaw missed a penalty to give the Scots the lead with just 10 minutes left, while a late Jeremy Thrush try secured a 24-16 away victory.
That autumn, New Zealand played England the week before and in the sides selected by Hansen to play at Twickenham and then face Scotland a week later he made 13 changes. Thirteen. Ben Smith and Richie McCaw were the only two to survive.
So yes, Scotland gave them a scare, but it was effectively the All Black 'B' team in 2014. That was not the case in their most recent clash.
Between New Zealand's 38-18 victory over France and their 22-17 win in Scotland, Hansen made just one change to the entire XV, with Codie Taylor replacing Dane Coles.
The difference is enormous and indicates Scotland are taken far more seriously now. Once the whipping boys of the Six Nations, they have defeated France, Ireland, Wales and Australia over the last two years. What gap?
The All Blacks have also lost three games (and drawn one) in the space of 12 months for the first time in a long time. Their invincibility tag appears to be slipping and, as such, their dominance might not be as automatic as it once was.
Home Nations improvement
England have formally established themselves as one of the top nations in the world under Eddie Jones, with their improvement since rugby's last showpiece event cosmic.
Australia have been beaten five times in a row, the Springboks were ruthlessly dispatched last autumn and every Tier-1 side in the world bar New Zealand, who have yet to visit, have been beaten at Twickenham.
Only once have England lost under Jones - a defeat in Dublin at the end of the last Six Nations. Can anybody seriously claim England are unable to bridge a southern hemisphere/northern hemisphere gap now?
In addition to their heavy victory over South Africa last week, Ireland too have developed into a world challenger.
Indeed, should they defeat Argentina in Dublin next week, they would have defeated every Tier-1 nation in the world in the last two years.
And that would include New Zealand, England, Australia - currently the world's top three - South Africa, France and Argentina all in the space of 12 months.
Ireland's victory over the All Blacks in Chicago a little over 12 months ago was seismic for the current side and since their comprehensive defeat to Argentina at the last World Cup, Joe Schmidt has built extensive depth across the squad.
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Prior to that World Cup in England, Ireland were back-to-back Six Nations champions, but had achieved those successes with largely the same squad of 23.
So when the spine of their XV - Paul O'Connell, Peter O'Mahony, Johnny Sexton, Jared Payne and Sean O'Brien - were all unavailable for that quarter-final, they fell apart.
Schmidt used the 2016 tour to South Africa to bud in a host of new and hungry players, determined that the same situation would never happen again, and Ireland are now in a position where they have two or three quality players in most positions across the park.
Like England, nobody would claim there is a gap between Ireland and the southern hemisphere sides now.
While England, Ireland and Scotland have made great strides, Wales have yet to improve to the same degree but showed in their displays at home to England and Ireland last year that they are a force to be reckoned with too. On their day, Wales will believe they can beat anyone, particularly in Cardiff.
Tier-2 strides
As well as improvement in the home nations, several Tier-2 nations have progressed.
Fiji could, and probably should, have defeated Ireland in Dublin on Saturday in a 23-20 loss, while they did beat Italy and Scotland over the summer.
Ireland had never failed to put 40 points on a Fiji team before the weekend, but never had such a structured and physical Fiji team lined out in Dublin before.
John McKee's side utterly dominated the breakdown and achieved parity at the scrum.
Similarly Georgia were, in all probability, uncontested scrums away from a famous result in Cardiff - something Japan were within a minute of in a 33-30 defeat to Warren Gatland's men 12 months ago.
And that's before we even mention Japan's miraculous World Cup victory over South Africa. Would that have been possible in any other era? Minnows defeating would-be semi-finalists? Certainly not.
Crushing defeats on a world stage are becoming less frequent in rugby and that can only be good for the game.
We are not yet at the stage where anyone can beat anyone, but we're reaching the point where everyone is competitive. The landscape of Test rugby is certainly changing.
