Six Nations: Alex Payne backs Wales to roar against England in opening match
Friday 6 February 2015 10:09, UK
This year’s RBS Six Nations rips into action with an absolute belter at the Millennium Stadium, and there won’t be a lot of time to stop and draw breath over the next few months.
Here, Alex Payne looks at the best bets ahead of the opening weekend...
Wales v England
The oldest tournament in the game has another layer this year with the inescapable shadow of the World Cup framing everything that teams are doing. With Wales and England meeting in the pool stages in eight months' time the result on Friday night will determine who carries the upper hand between now and then.
Certainly, Wales carry the stronger hand heading into the Six Nations opener. Theirs is an experienced, settled outfit; 11 of the 15 started in the 30-3 demolition of England two years ago, and there are only two changes to the side that beat South Africa in their last outing. Warren Gatland, the master of the mind games, announced his team two days early, presumably to say to Stuart Lancaster: ‘We’re ready and waiting.’
Lancaster will have offered a rueful nod of acknowledgement, for England's has been a preparation of non-stop disruption.
The injury list now totals 13, and only six of the team who finished last season’s tournament with a superb afternoon in Italy will begin this campaign. That was the performance that seemed to hint England really were heading in the right direction, but since then it has all rather unravelled in terms of results, performance and personnel.
However, I was in the England camp this week and there is a real bounce about the squad. I’m not sure they’re too fussed about being the underdog; there was an indication in the autumn that they had worked out what worked for them and I think they will keep it simple and go for Wales upfront.
With that in mind I would look at both Billy Vunipola (8/1 anytime) and Dylan Hartley (10/1 anytime) as potential try scorers – Vunipola for his threat around the fringes, Hartley to tuck into the back of a driving maul.
Although questions surround the amount of fitness work Wales have been put through (reportedly a lot) and the fact that they tend to start campaigns very slowly, the fact is they have won three of the last four and five of the last six at home against England.
Whereas I’m backing England’s forwards, I think Wales backs will do the damage, Rhys Webb has been in sparkling form at scrum-half for Ospreys this season and is 12/1 for the first try.
There are skinny odds on George North or Alex Cuthbert (four tries in his last six Tests) scoring but if you think Wales will really get going how about both to grab an anytime try at 9/1. I'll also give a nod to Wales captain Sam Warburton on his 50th cap. He is 11/1 to celebrate with a score.
I think too many of the head-to-heads come down in Wales’ favour, including Leigh Halfpenny as goal-kicker, and I’m taking Warren Gatland's side to open with a win (4/7). Picking margins in tournament openers is always tricky, but I think they’ll beat the handicap of -4 at 10/11.
Italy v Ireland
It is the defending champions against the holders of the Wooden Spoon on Saturday afternoon in the Italian sunshine. Fresh off the back of beating South Africa and Australia this autumn, you could be forgiven for thinking Ireland might walk their opener but it has the potential to be more of an arm wrestle than many are expecting.
The men in green actually lost on their last trip to Rome – their only defeat to the Azzurri – and it was notable that Jonny Sexton was absent that day as he will be again on Saturday. The Racing fly half has become so important to the organisation of his country, and without him I think Italy can disrupt the accuracy levels of the visitors.
The Italians have been making up the numbers in this competition and there isn’t a great deal of evidence to suggest they are suddenly going to mount a competitive challenge. They have won just three of their last 21 Tests and as per normal their charge will be led by Sergio Parisse. Do keep an eye on Michele Campagnaro for an anytime try, who scored two tries against Wales in the opener last year.
Although Sexton is absent, Sean O’Brien is back which will add an extra gear to Ireland’s carrying game and he is good value to barrel over for a try. The guy who seems set to star though is Robbie Henshaw, who should be considered, while if you fancy some longer odds Tommy Bowe missed last year’s tournament but hit back with tries against South Africa and Australia in November. Against the Italian defence, I’m going to push Bowe for a double at 13/2 with Sky Bet – remarkably in last year’s 15 games, eight players scored two tries in a match. Worth factoring in!
I think this one could be tight at half time, but Ireland should have the nous and the fitness to come through to win by 13+ at evens.
France v Scotland
There is one stat that leapt out at me when searching through the numbers ahead of this game: Scotland have beaten France only once in 16 Six Nations games, though the last three losses have all been by fewer than seven and last year it took a last gasp penalty from Jean-Marc Doussain to deny the Scots. Even so, that is a pretty wretched run of form that has to frame much of your betting.
France have been decidedly average for too long, but there are rumblings across the channel that they might just be beginning to sort themselves out.
Philippe Saint-Andre still has the propensity for the extraordinary, but they have at last found a fly-half, in Clermont’s Camille Lopez, who can offer some order and structure during a game. The pack are always powerful, though it is more heavyweight than explosive. Questions remain around their fitness and temperament.
Scotland are my unknown quantity heading into this year’s tournament. Saturday evening will give an indication of whether the progress shown in the autumn was another false dawn or the start of a great renaissance. Certainly there has been an expansion in the ambition, and if Scotland can harness what we’ve seen from Glasgow this season they will be great to watch.
I’m not sure it will be enough for a win in Paris though because, for all their brilliant tries, the Warriors simply haven’t been able to match the power of the likes of Toulouse and Bath. Despite all Vern Cotter’s insider knowledge of French rugby, I fear Les Bleus’ muscle will do for them this week. Weight and history are too stacked against them, and I think going for France by 6-10 points at 4/1 is the right call.
In terms of try scorers for Scotland I would pick out Tommy Seymour, who’s scored in his last three internationals, at 100/30, and Alex Dunbar (8/1 a/t), who has constantly threatened for Glasgow this season.
For France, the pack are not exactly prolific with only 12 Test tries amongst the starting eight, which has 258 caps combined. Or more simply, the pack averages a try every 21 games. So go with the backs, and sprinkle your chips; Yoann Huget scored three tries in last season’s tournament and is 6/4, Wesley Fofana scored in two of his last three Tests (7/4 anytime) while the unproven Teddy Thomas is 11/10 to add to his four tries in two Tests.
And finally, with an eye on some tournament bets:
I think the title will come down to Wales or Ireland but given there has only been one clean sweep in the last four years, I will be playing no Grand Slam winner at 4/6.
Given that England have got Italy, Scotland and France at home, who came sixth, fifth and fourth last year, I fancy them as top team try scorers at 6/4.
Four tries has, on average, been enough over the last five years to win the top try-scorer honour – I do think Tommy Seymour looks juicy at 66/1 but I’m backing Bowe at 12/1 with Sky Bet.
