Six Nations: Wales can halt Ireland charge
Boot could be decisive in Cardiff showdown, says Alex Payne
Sunday 15 March 2015 18:02, UK
Sky Sports rugby presenter Alex Payne looks ahead to the penultimate round of matches in the Six Nations.
Wales v Ireland
The remarkable stat coming into the big game of the weekend is that Ireland have only lost twice on their last 14 trips to Cardiff. They are also on a 10-game winning run, and are the only side on for the Grand Slam. After two away wins, Wales are still in the hunt for the title, and are searching for a repeat of 2013 when they pulled down England's clean-sweep hopes in spectacular fashion.
On paper, this is the tussle between the bicep and the brain. Warren Gatland will set his team up to dominate Ireland, while Joe Schmidt will have a plan to outwit what stands in their way. It is a desperately hard game to call; Wales are picking up speed but Ireland just have that winning feeling. They are not playing a huge amount of rugby - only three tries in three games, but they're not giving much away either - they've conceded one try all tournament.
Although it will be a frantic, frenzied atmosphere, the game is likely to be tight with most of the scoring coming from the kicking tee. Jonathan Sexton against Leigh Halfpenny pits two of the sharpest eyes in the game right now, and with worries over Sexton's fitness, I think Halfpenny may shade the duel and lead Wales to a narrow 1-5 point win at 9/2 (with a nod to the draw at 20/1).
I can't see this being a try-scoring bonanza which might lead you to consider the no try at 12/1, but there are stories to tell - Jonathan Davies has scored three tries against Ireland in his last five games and is 5/1 for a try, as is Halfpenny who has previous against Ireland.
Payne's Picks: Wales win by 1-5pts 9/2; Jonathan Davies anytime 5/1; Jared Payne anytime try 11/2. Bet now
For Ireland, the great Brian O'Driscoll scored in seven of his 16 games against Wales. He may have gone, but Jared Payne is 11/2 to pick up the mantle with an anytime try. And if you bet with the heart, how about Paul O'Connell to celebrate his 100th cap with a rare try? He's only scored six tries along the way, but three of them have come against Wales, including one on his debut. Odds of14/1 says that becomes four, 50/1 says he scores first!
England v Scotland
Ahead of the oldest international fixture in the game, both sides are looking to get air back in their tyres after hugely disappointing defeats in round three.
History makes it very hard to look past England as the victors at Twickenham, having lost only three times in the 20 years since the game went professional. Add to that the fact Scotland have not won at Twickenham since 1983, while England have broken the 40-point barrier in five of the last nine meetings at home.
It is worth saying that there have been some dreadful games between these two in recent years, and both sides are spluttering this season.
Although Scotland have lost their first three games, all of them have been by a score and I do think they're capable of producing a big result in the not-too-distant future. But the favourites have done the business at Cheltenham this week, and I think England should continue the trend at home and win by 11-15 at 9/2.
Scotland may struggle to hold England up front, but the danger men remain Stuart Hogg (11/2 anytime), who scored at Twickenham two years ago, and Tommy Seymour (9/2 anytime) who will hope for more chances than against Italy. Given how badly England have been starting recently, it is also worth casting your eye over the Scottish first try scorers - there are some huge odds available; 80/1 for Greig Laidlaw or Finn Russell to score first has to be worth a pound or two!
England's backs have enjoyed great success in recent games, with 30 of England's last 35 tries against Scotland. Jonathan Joseph (11/10 anytime) has grabbed the headlines so far, last season's top try scorer Mike Brown is 9/1 to score the first try but my hat tip goes to the lively Jack Nowell at 5/4 for an anytime try.
Although a number of our try scorers came in in Round 3, it has taken me two weeks to recover from calling all three results wrong. In a tournament when anything seems possible, this week I'm going with three home wins this week at 9/1.
Payne's Picks: England win by 11-15pts 5/1; Jack Nowell anytime try 11/10; Stuart Hogg anytime try 11/2. Bet now
Italy v France
It may be a battle of the chasing pack, but in its own way, Sunday's match in Rome is high stakes.
The Italians, bouyant after their win over the Scots, are desperate for a second win to show real progress while the fuse for Les Blues is now dangerously close to the dynamite. Defeat for France and Saint Andre will have to go just six months before the World Cup.
Eight changes to his side indicates he has either lost patience or the plot, and although there is some real talent amongst the line-up, it is a huge question as to whether they can gel in a short amount of time and carrying the pressure they are.
I'm fed up with the French so I'm going for Italy to win, mainly because I want them to and sometimes that is as good a reason as any. If you want a little more substance, Italy do have the momentum after round 3 and they have beaten France in their last two home games by 1 and 5 points respectively. Three in a row by 1-5 is at 13/2.
If that is to happen, the great Sergio Parisse will need to deliver again, while the hard-running Andrea Masi also has delivered big performances against France in the past.
France do have one remarkable statistic which is that they've had a winger on the scoresheet in the last nine internationals against Italy. In six of those games, it has been the man wearing 11, so I would draw your attention to the debutant Noa Nakaitaci. It is well worth looking at his show reel on YouTube and well worth a couple of quid for an anytime try.
