Leinster are in desperate need of a win at Toulon as domestic struggles continue, says Stuart Barnes

Stuart Barnes says Leinster desperately need a Champions Cup semi-final win at Toulon after another PRO12 defeat...

A few thoughts on the weekend ahead and the European semi-finals; and for once we will start with the Challenge Cup where two of the semi-finalists produced fine performances this weekend - and the results to go with them.

Where better to begin than Rodney Parade – my first, and brief, first class rugby home – where the Dragons beat Leinster to make a mess of Matt O’Connor’s Guinness PRO12 prospects.

We’ll come to the Irish giants later but first a word for Lyn Jones, whose patient management of young talent is being rewarded with some excellent results. The Challenge Cup quarter-final win in Cardiff would have gone down very well in Newport; things have changed since I left Newport but not that much.

The Dragons are playing some great rugby but to fight back from 22-8 down against Leinster is another level of result, four tries to boot. It stands them in great stead for their semi-final with Edinburgh, who were blown away by a Munster team I suspect would have enjoyed the Dragons result almost as much as the rugby Men of Gwent.

Jones has been preaching the virtues of pressure-free rugby but after their recent results it is difficult to argue a case against expectations now being high ahead of a semi-final that leaves them 80 minutes from a maiden European final.

Staring down the barrel

On a domestic note their win has repercussions with perennial favourites and frequent winners, Leinster, now staring down the barrel of elimination. They are going to have to win everything between now and the end of the regular season and hope other results go their way if they are to make the PRO12 play offs.

This adds real pressure to Sunday’s already-mammoth task of making it past the champions, Toulon, in Marseilles. The odds are against it. Toulon’s convincing away win in Grenoble was a gentle reminder that the French have been slumbering of late but are awakening when it matters most.

Saracens will be undaunted. If any team can defy logic it is them but they will have to be much better than they were against Racing Metro to win, unless Clermont self-combust.

They lead the Top 14 with a squad of staggering depth while Leinster are stumbling in the PRO12 and only edged past Bath at home in the quarter-final - anything but a home win appears most unlikely. Unlikely but not impossible; Toulon have a tendency to play to the level required and little more. Occasionally they are vulnerable to the threat of underperforming.

If they do not click (remember Wasps were within seven points late into the game in the quarter-final) Leinster’s European experience can take them to places few expect them to go. The pack is full of top class internationals, Six Nations and Heineken Cup winners. They – of all teams in Europe – will not freeze in Marseilles. But are they good enough?

Clermont made some headlines by losing to Oyonnax at home but the only headline worth mentioning is the fact that none of the team that destroyed Northampton were in the starting XV. While Saracens tackled their way to a win that puts the heat on Leicester in the race for the Premiership play-offs, Clermont were quietly preparing for the semi-final. Perhaps even more than the French location, this gives them an advantage.

Undaunted

Saracens, being Saracens, will be undaunted. If any team can defy logic it is them but they will have to be much better than they were against Racing Metro to win, unless Clermont self-combust. It’s more than a passing thought, I’ll grant you, but this side seems a more balanced one.

Oh yes, Exeter, nearly forgot them...How could I? Victory over Northampton pushed them into the play-off places and gave them a double over the English champions. It was well deserved and expected (I thought so anyway) after Northampton’s nightmare in Clermont.

There’s no big story in Exeter’s win. They are a top English side and not a `fairytale team’ to be patronised. The play-offs are a distinct possibility but even more probable I think, is European triumph. They travel to Gloucester for a West Country Challenge Cup derby but a win for the Cherry and Whites would be a shock, even at Kingsholm; that is how much the balance of power has shifted in the west.

On the subject of `the west’, Ulster’s bonus point win in Galway was a big step towards qualification for the PRO12 play offs, especially in the light of Leinster’s defeat. They, the Ospreys, Munster and Glasgow have breathing room with Leinster’s season now on a knife edge. O’Connor and his men need a result in Marseilles, they really do.

Got a question for Stuart? Email him at skysportsclub@bskyb.com, tweet @SkySportsRugby #askskyrugby or use the feedback form on skysports.com.