Australia too strong for Wales, says Alex Payne
Australian ruthlessness will overcome the Dragons' emotion, insists Alex Payne
Friday 9 October 2015 19:19, UK
With England out of the tournament, Sky Sports rugby union presenter Alex Payne casts an eye over the big clash at Twickenham this weekend and also backs Scotland to book their place in the last eight.
Australia v Wales, 4.45pm Saturday
The Welsh have had a mental block with the Wallabies recently - they have lost the last nine games by an average of just four points, and the last five by less than three. Is this the weekend it finally flips?
On current form, it is hard to see. The Wallabies win over England was the performance of the tournament so far, and their improved scrummaging will be a test for anyone - particularly the Welsh who have struggled in that area. Samson Lee starting should solve some, but not all, of those issues.
Having said that, I really like the look of the Welsh team, and though both have qualified this is a huge game in the context of the latter stages. I thought Warren Gatland might already have one eye on a likely quarter-final against South Africa but his selection indicates he wants the win and the 'favourable' side of the draw in the knockouts. After their heroics so far, who'd bet against them?
With regards to the danger men, George North has scored five tries in his last seven tests against Australia. He played 13 against them last November to great effect, and is 7/2 to do more damage from outside centre. Scrum-half Gareth Davies is in the running for tournament top try scorer with 4 in 3 and is 100/30 with Sky Bet to continue the run.
For the Wallabies, Israel Folau has scored three in his last two against the Welsh from full back and is 2/1 to cross at Twickenham. Elsewhere, the classy Drew Mitchell gets a chance to prove his case after Rob Horne's injury and, having reignited his test scoring credentials with two against Uruguay, is 9/4 to score again.
The North/Folau double delivered for us on the Lions tour two years ago, and I like the 12/1 with Sky Bet available for it on Saturday.
In terms of the result, I fear more Welsh agony again and think Aussie ruthlessness will overcome the Dragons' emotion by 6-10 at 9/2.
Samoa v Scotland, 2.30pm Saturday
Scotland have to win to make the quarters, and that should be enough motivation to ensure they get what they need. Samoa are a proud rugby nation and certainly won't lie down despite being out of the tournament - they are still battling for automatic qualification for 2019.
The men of Manu actually claimed the last meeting 27-17, prior to that Scotland had only got home by +7, +3 and +1 so I'm not sure this will be all plain sailing. Having said that, Samoa's recent form indicates the big wins are proving harder to come by, and I think Scotland should navigate themselves home by 16-20 at 5/1.
Scotland's wingers are running hot with nine tries in their last five games, Scotland's number 14 scoring in all of them, and in two of the last three games with Samoa. Sean Maitland wears that shirt on Saturday and is a juicy 9/1 for the first try.
On the left, Tommy Seymour has scored three in as many games, and is 5/4 to make it four in four, while Mark Bennet, who should be sharp and well rested having missed the game with South Africa, offers a little more value at 6/4.
Crossing the whitewash has been a problem for Samoa, with just three in their three games so I'd advise caution in selection. Tim Nanai-Williams (11/4 anytime) is their most elusive back.
