A real basement battle

Victory for Leeds on Sunday could provide the shot in the arm their season needs, says Miles Harrison.

This weekend's live game focuses on the bottom end of the Aviva Premiership, where the league's two bottom sides, Leeds Carnegie and Newcastle Falcons, meet at Headingley on Sunday afternoon. This is a must-win game for both teams. The home side have managed just one victory all season, and failed to register a single point in last weekend's drubbing by Saracens. While Newcastle have two wins, the last of which came back in November. However, Headingley has been something of a happy hunting ground for the Falcons in recent years. They have lost just one of their last nine visits, and extending that will go a long way to securing their Premiership status. Just three points separates the teams, and victory here will enhance either side's chances of avoiding relegation. Miles Harrison will be at Headingley and he gave his views on this crucial fixture. This is in essence a relegation eight-pointer for these sides. It is must win for both teams. MILES REPLIES: It is all of those things and more. On a weekend where the Six Nations takes centre stage, with some massive games taking place and none bigger than England against France at Twickenham, if you go right up to the end of the M1 there is nothing bigger for Leeds and Newcastle's supporters that the game at Headingley. It is one of the key moments of their respective seasons. They've known as much for a while, it's been building up. Leeds just haven't been able to free themselves from bottom spot, and Newcastle have been getting further and further stuck in the mire. Neither side have been able to put anything between themselves, and here they are going into this match with just three points separating them. This game could shape the way things go from hereon in. Looking at the bigger picture, how big an impact would relegation have for either of these sides? MILES REPLIES: It's a difficult one to answer. We've seen clubs bounce back from relegation, and bounce back strong, such as Harlequins and Northampton. But you do feel that it could be a different story for Leeds or Newcastle. They are not built on the same foundations in terms of financial security that comes from regular large crowds. Clearly both teams have their commercial backers but the foundations aren't as solid as they would be at Franklin's Gardens and the Stoop because of the numbers who watch week in, week out. Because of what's riding on the game, do you expect Sunday's match to be a tight, error-strewn affair? MILES REPLIES: All the stats this season point to that, and that's before you throw in what's riding on the game! But you never know; there could be one of those situations where everyone is so pumped up early on, all kinds of things could happen inside the opening 15 minutes. However, I do think the coin will fall on the side of a very nervous encounter, which could lead to mistakes. It could also lead to players playing in a zone that, for whatever reason, they simply haven't been in all season, and bring out their test mentality. It's one of those games where you are so glad to be a neutral. It's going to be unbelievably tense. Tries have been few and far between during recent encounters. Both teams need their big name players to produce the goods. MILES REPLIES: It's interesting because you've got Ceiron Thomas at full-back and the Aussie Lachlan McKay at fly-half for the home side, and Newcastle with Jeremy Manning at full-back and Jimmy Gopperth bossing the No.10 position. They're guys who will try to run the show, to lead their side through the mire and up the table. That quartet are skilful players in their own right but they can't do it single-handedly. It's one of those situations that they could be the key men because we are expecting a tight game; it could come down to a kick either way. It's one of those days where you cannot expect one guy to get you through. Everybody is going to have to turn it on. You look to players who have the most experience, such as the skippers, Marco Wentzel and James Hudson. Ally Hogg, who's been around the block internationally, needs to show he is a test match player on Sunday. Would you say it's a case of now or never for Leeds? Defeat would leave them at least six points adrift of Newcastle. MILES REPLIES: The sides do meet again in April, but this is Leeds' chance to pull themselves off the foot of the table. They are at home, and should they manage to win they will walk off the pitch alongside the Newcastle players who now find themselves in bottom spot, and that is a massive thing psychologically. Leeds have been showing signs and flickers. They ran Leicester very close in their previous home game, but they then lost 39-0 away to Saracens last weekend. Obviously that wasn't a great performance, but in my mind it was an accident waiting to happen in view of how they got on the week before against Leicester, and how they would have felt after that game. You can imagine they would have gone straight forward to the Newcastle match. I watched the tape of the Saracens game and there were tackles missed that you wouldn't see in a do-or-die game. Leeds have targeted Sunday's game because they know victory would set them up for a run-in, and leave Newcastle feeling the majority of the tension. If Newcastle can extend their lead to seven points with a victory - excluding bonus points - they will feel that if they can follow that up with a win in their next match at home to Harlequins, the gap will look horrible for Leeds. It's not quite make-or-break for Leeds, but it's right on the edge.