This year's European Champions Cup has yet to come alive, says Stuart Barnes

Four rounds of European pool action gone and this year’s competition is shaping up to be one of the most bruising of them all.

There has been a dearth of memorable rugby, a few touches here and there from Clermont have probably come nearest to being unforgettable, but even they have not quite produced a performance which will last in the memory.

Nor has there been a stand-out match. We've seen plenty of good, tight games and terrifically well-balanced pools but we are still waiting for that spark of something special in this year’s European Champions Cup.

Clermont have been the most adventurous of the teams to date, Toulon’s performance against Ulster was my idea of the most professional, but maybe Ulster with just the solitary home win to date against the Scarlets were not as good as I expected. This of course impacts upon the assessment of the effort.

Toulouse are the only team with a 100 per cent winning record, but I’ll stick my neck out and say they will not win this year’s tournament. Individually they have enough firepower to go close but there remains something lax, something not quite about them.

It would not surprise me if Bath become the first team to ignite the competition with a win in Toulouse. They have the pack to mix it with the four-time champions and the signs are that, should a team match Toulouse in the tight especially, they have a great chance of beating them.

Vital point for Munster

What other strong opinions have been formed two-thirds of the way through the pool stages? A total number of points to qualify, that’s going to be talking point in the run-up to the last two rounds. Nineteen points; that is going to be the magic number, that is why I thought Munster’s typically-late bonus point in Clermont was so important.

If 19 points is the cut-off (it will require Bath to beat Toulouse away or Glasgow to win at the Recreation Ground after five-pointing Montpellier – with Bath too having to run in four tries in against Glasgow) then Pool 4 has to throw up an unlikely, although not impossible, sequence of results.

Were Munster to win at Saracens and score a bonus-point at home to Sale in round six, Saracens would need at least a win in Clermont to secure the target in Munster’s sight. No second-placed team can achieve that in the Toulon pool. They can in the Harlequins, Leinster and Wasps pool and Racing should in the fortunate group including Treviso.

If you don’t trust my maths (and I don’t blame you if I don’t - I was arts all the way in my student days) do the sums yourself. Nineteen is long odds-on to be enough. That makes the round-five game between Saracens and Munster the biggest match of the competition to date.

If Saracens win, they go through and Munster fail to qualify for the first time since the big bang – so it feels. If Munster win they play Sale at home in the last game and Saracens travel to Clermont.

In other words Ian Keatley’s last kick of the game keeps qualification in their hands. Would they have accepted that before kick off in Clermont? I think so. Saracens will start favourites at home but Munster have been here so often before. This will be a tense affair - that is one of rugby’s easier predictions. 

Toulon my favourites

Clermont should win the pool and are being talked up again, but at the moment the precision and world-class players in a crisis makes Toulon my clear favourites. Who can better them? Leicester already has but it was away, it was not a knock-out game and Toulon were not under pressure to win. When the pressure comes they will be a different team.

On their day the best English hope is Northampton. The Saints possess power, pace, dynamism and a fair few top-class acts themselves. They will beat the currently-unbeaten Racing Metro in round six (Ospreys away will be a harder test in round five) and enjoy the benefits of a home quarter-final. If a few bits and pieces drop their way, Northampton are potential champions.

Is there any other team who appear championship material? Not at the moment. Saracens have to find some more vim. The Munster duopoly might make the quarter-finals, but they lack the heft this year. The same can be said for Harlequins and Wasps, arguably the most consistently-entertaining team in the tournament so far.

Leicester, like Munster, face the prospect of an early exit. They and the Scarlets, both on eight points, could squeeze through but, unlike Munster, their fate is in the hands of others. Bath, like Wasps, were beaten in their first two games but have maximised the chaos at Montpellier to give themselves a chance.

Italian issue

On the negative side, the Italian issue will not go away. Again Treviso is the launch pad for one of the best runners-up. Northampton’s 11 tries were well-received in the Gardens, but such routs do little for the elite status of the tournament or the development of Italian rugby - the two reasons why one Italian team is guaranteed entry.

This is a three-league tournament and improvement has to be made in the domestic leagues, not the European tournament. When Italy had its own league the case for Italian entry was different. It has changed and so has my opinion. Italian clubs should finish in a high-enough position to qualify for the Champions Cup, the same as their Scottish, Welsh and Irish rivals.

Otherwise they must play in the Challenge Cup, a tournament that suffered a severe setback when the new European authorities stupidly decided the winner would not qualify automatically. As it is the French teams are more concerned with survival in the Top 14, without any incentive this competition is struggling.

At the moment the organisers owe a big thank you to Exeter and Connacht who are keeping it interesting.

Stuart answers your emails...

Got a question for Stuart? Email him at skysportsclub@bskyb.com, Tweet @SkySportsRugby #askskyrugby or use the feedback form below.

Stuart, how highly do you rate Nathan Hughes? Do you think he has what it takes to go all the way when he finally qualifies for England?

STUART REPLIES: Nathan Hughes is a fine signing for Wasps, powerful in defence and eventually the tackle but he's not English and I wish we would all celebrate his contribution to his club (which is huge) rather than push foreign players for international teams.

Hi Stuart, love the column as always. I have a question around England's World Cup squad, and who are candidates at full-back. The discussion is always cantered around Brown, Foden and Goode. There is no mention of Mathew Tait at Leicester. His performance in defence and attack against Toulon was fantastic. He (touch wood) seems to be injury free and playing better and better all the time. What more does he need to do to get some more England recognition?

Ed White

STUART REPLIES: Put on two stones, dye his hair and change his name. He's not the only one. There's a bloke called Abendanon in Clermont who has cut out the silly stuff and looks a superb player. The fact is coaches are humans and have their favourites. If you are in you are in, if not, try some other disguise and deny all knowledge of knowing let alone being the excellent Mathew Tait (I too am a fan).

A great win for Wasps and a sad day for them as they say goodbye to Adams Park. What do you think of their move and what do they need to do to make it a success?

Gary Courtis

STUART REPLIES: I've covered the move in great detain before, so a brief synopsis. If the business cannot make the money to survive in Wycombe it must move. And fair enough. If it moves because it is greedy and wants even more profit, boycott them. It seems the move is more the former than latter so stick with the faith. Wasps are heading in the right direction on the field. And for all the marketing men and their phoney words, it is what Wasps do ON THE FIELD that will count. At the moment they are doing plenty.

Hi Stuart, while Clermont did look really impressive today, do you think there are still those cracks in their psyche which came to the fore today and ultimately gave Munster a slim chance by letting them get that bonus point? Or am I not giving enough credit to the mental strength of Munster?

Phil Harris

STUART REPLIES: Munster were not very good but they were tough. Should Clermont have put them away in both games, I think so. Why didn't they....I for one still love their flowing style but I'll take Toulon's nous over them any day.