After beating Australia and Wales, an Ireland win is England's next big World Cup hurdle, says Stuart Barnes
Wednesday 25 February 2015 13:35, UK
Australia, Wales, Ireland and France are the four likely teams blocking England from a World Cup final. After wins over the first two, momentum against the others are vital in the Six Nations, says Sky Sports pundit Stuart Barnes...
It is 12 long years since England won a Grand Slam. On a global scale England has been the most successful of European nations since the game turned professional but their Six Nations story is one of frustration and, more frequently than not, failure.
Sunday sees an opportunity for Stuart Lancaster’s team to set that record straight. Success in Dublin leaves England two Twickenham dates from their first Grand Slam since 2003, that most portentous of years for English international rugby.
Scotland are an improved team but the odds against them winning in London are extremely long, whilst France have the power to cause problems for any team and should not be discounted - however their dreadful Test match record under Philippe Saint-Andre shows an away win, whilst possible, would be a major shock.
Of course, defeat does not eliminate England from contention for the title, just the Grand Slam. In contrast to England’s run-in, Ireland’s is a snarling, nasty one. Wales have been short of their Six Nations best but have the recent record and team to prove a major hurdle to negotiate for Ireland in Cardiff. Scotland in Edinburgh, while being a game Ireland would expect to win, remain a potential boatload of banana skins.
No, it would be premature to talk of the Grand Slam for Ireland until they have negotiated Cardiff. Indeed, an Ireland win brings both France and Wales into the equation. Stranger things have happened; much stranger but in the lead up to this week it pays to focus on Ireland and England.
Demolished
An English defeat does not eliminate them from the title race. In fact it would not necessarily do a great deal of damage to their World Cup hopes, not unless they lose in a manner similar to that of the 2011 title-winning team that were demolished in Dublin.
The rugby nation turned swiftly against them, even though Martin Johnson’s team did what few English sides managed and won the title. The celebrations that day in Dublin, only minutes after they had been blown away, now looks like the beginning of the end for that regime. This regime is a different beast. Win or lose there will be no histrionics in Dublin. Win and they have every right to celebrate but the time for banging lids has not arrived.
Ireland, Wales, Australia and France are the likeliest obstacles to England making the final of the World Cup. They have beaten Australia at Twickenham this season, beaten Wales in Cardiff after winning at Twickenham last season. Lancaster’s team prevailed narrowly last year on home soil. An away win in Dublin would be a significant psychological edge ahead of the tournament. If they beat France in the final round they will have beaten all their probable rivals who block their route to the final.
It would take an Argentina quarter-final victory against Ireland or France (assuming the Pumas do not stun the All Blacks at pool stage) for England to come up against a team they have not recently conquered at their World Cup base. Yes, a win for England will have the headline writers in London searching for their boldest ink, and maybe with reason.
The pressure is perhaps greater on Ireland to win. They will not want to hand England any potential edge ahead of next season. They would also like to go a step further and add a Grand Slam to their title in Joe Schmidt’s first year. Ranked fourth in the world at present and on a winning run of some substance, a convincing Ireland win indicates they are the best bet for Europe in the World Cup. A narrow one suggests that England would have a favourite’s chance against them at Twickenham with so little between the teams and home advantage in England’s favour.
Devastating
France were beaten, but not convincingly in Dublin a fortnight ago. Ireland will have to be more than efficient if England bring their Cardiff second-half form to the party, they’ll only have to maintain their high levels of efficiency if England are as slipshod as they were for large portions of the game against Italy.
The day before I am broadcasting on the Munster match with Glasgow in Cork; what a game that promises to be. It is an evening affair after the dust has settled in Paris and Edinburgh. Glasgow should be trying to make it a decent day for Scotland. Win, lose or draw against Munster, it will be a devastating day should Italy nick a win. Huge pressure is on Vern Cotter’s team after the talk of promise has led to nothing but defeats. A win and a convincing one are needed. Sergio Parisse explained Italy’s heavy defeats away with the quality of the opposition. On that basis, they have to get much closer to Scotland who would not claim to be punching in the Irish and English division on current form.
France and Wales is riveting. It could be one of the ugliest games of the season if both teams slug it out. There has been much talk of the power plays possessed by these sides. This is true but both teams have oodles of individual ability. If the Ospreys half-backs can liberate the team and mix their game some more then Wales can bounce back into Six Nations contention, leaving the underachieving Saint-Andre with plenty of explaining to do.
The losers are out of the shake-up for this year’s Six Nations, the winners secure a prestigious win to reignite their stuttering seasons... all this and then Glasgow in Munster, enjoy the weekend.
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Why not have an additional referee for the blind side at a scrum and stop the clock till the ball goes in? - John Marshall
STUART REPLIES: John, the ticking clock infuriates me and a referee could certainly do with another pair of eyes (although the assistant referee has a role to play). I still think the answer to the scrum problems is a cultural one, with teams trying to cheat pens rather than utilise its many benefits as an attacking or destructive weapon. The final answer lies with professional coaches.
At the end of last year England were supposedly in crisis and Lancaster was thought to be out of his depth. Two games into the Six Nations and there is talk of a Grand Slam and a squad capable of winning the World Cup. What changed, if anything? Lauren Muir-Jones
STUART REPLIES: Lauren, an understanding of when to kick and when to pass. They didn't have it in the autumn - and they didn't have it for 20 minutes against Italy - but the Welsh second half and Australia game illustrated the improvement. If you are looking for a name to pin on the change, try George Ford. Oh, and England got lucky too. Injuries enabled Jonathan Joseph to play and the rest is... not yet history but quite some gear change for the England attack.
Why is Freddie Burns not an England squad player? Do you think he should be? Ian, Somerset
STUART REPLIES: Hi Ian. No, Freddie should not be. Why? Because he has the necessary skills but not the ability to work out where to use the skills and why. His confidence is also too low for a test match 10; at the moment he is struggling to be a top-line professional fly-half.