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Premier League predictor: Manchester City's title credentials under threat

Pep Guardiola, manager of Manchester City gives his team instructions during the EFL Cup fourth round match v Manchester United, October 26

By Harry Carr

Friday 16 December 2016 14:05, UK

Manchester City started the season with sky-high Premier League title hopes but their prospects of lifting the crown have taken a big hit, according to Sky Sports' Premier League Predictor.

Pep Guardiola's side may have beaten Watford in midweek, but they were thrashed 4-2 by Leicester last weekend and they head into their Super Sunday game with Arsenal on a run of just four wins from 10 games.

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Their title credentials are under threat, with our result-predicting supercomputer putting their chances of winning it at just 10 per cent, well behind Chelsea at 45 per cent and Arsenal on 31 per cent.

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They are at least in a better position than their local rivals. United returned to returned to winning ways against Tottenham and Crystal Palace, but they remain more likely to be relegated than win the title, with our Premier League predictor giving them a less than one per cent chance of being crowned champions this season.

United are only given a 13 per cent chance of even finishing in the top four, well behind Chelsea, Arsenal, City, Liverpool and Tottenham.

Sky Sports Predictor for the final Premier League table

Team Winner Top 4 Relegated Projected points PP ranking points Change this week
Chelsea 45% 94% <1% 76 745 8
Arsenal 31% 89% <1% 74 750 -2
Man City 10% 66% <1% 68 649 -12
Liverpool 7% 62% <1% 67 685 16
Spurs 6% 59% <1% 67 685 4
Man Utd <1% 13% 1% 57 593 24
Everton <1% 5% 2% 53 504 8
West Brom <1% 4% 3% 52 492 13
Southampton <1% 3% 5% 51 532 6
Bournemouth <1% 1% 9% 48 407 3
Stoke <1% 1% 9% 48 430 -17
Watford <1% 1% 11% 48 403 -6
Leicester <1% <1% 14% 47 519 16
Middlesbrough <1% <1% 17% 46 387 -33
Burnley <1% <1% 20% 45 355 3
Crystal Palace <1% <1% 25% 44 408 -11
West Ham <1% <1% 24% 44 422 17
Sunderland <1% <1% 42% 41 354 -26
Swansea <1% <1% 56% 39 378 5
Hull <1% <1% 63% 37 300 -16

As for this weekend's big games, City and Arsenal are given roughly chances despite Guardiola's team having home advantage in Sunday's game.

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In the Merseyside derby on Monday Night Football, Everton are given a 30 per cent chance of winning at Goodison Park, with Liverpool's chances rated at 29 per cent.

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As for United, our predictor suggests their trip to The Hawthorns could be a tricky one. West Brom have a 37 per cent chance of winning, with Jose Mourinho's side given a 30 per cent chance.

Sky Soprts Predictor for the weekend's PL games

Home team Away team Home win Away win Draw
Bournemouth Southampton 34% 36% 30%
Crystal Palace Chelsea 22% 53% 25%
Everton Liverpool 30% 41% 29%
Man City Arsenal 37% 33% 30%
Middlesbrough Swansea 48% 22% 30%
Stoke Leicester 38% 32% 30%
Sunderland Watford 42% 28% 30%
Tottenham Burnley 80% 4% 15%
West Brom Man Utd 37% 33% 30%
West Ham Hull 61% 13% 26%

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