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Champions League and Europa League impact on Premier League teams analysed

Manchester United's Zlatan Ibrahimovic (C) reacts during the UEFA Europa League football Fenerbahce SK vs Manchester United at the Fenerbahce Ulker Stadium

Does European action take its toll on Premier League results? 

Manchester United drew 1-1 with West Ham at Old Trafford on Sunday following their 4-0 win at Feyenoord on Thursday but fellow Europa League competitors Southampton - who had travelled to Sparta Prague for a 1-0 defeat in the competition last week - managed to beat Everton 1-0 at St Mary's.

Elsewhere, Tottenham lost at Chelsea and Leicester drew at home to Middlesbrough after their Champions League exertions, but Arsenal beat Bournemouth and Manchester City saw off Burnley.  

So do teams suffer a hangover from midweek European football? We analyse the impact of Champions League and Europa League ties on clubs' subsequent Premier League games...

EUROPA LEAGUE

Manchester United have played five Premier League games during the same week as Europa League ties this season, only winning once against Swansea. That's a 20 per cent win rate after European games compared to a 50 per cent win record in Premier League games when they haven't had European action.

United suffered a 4-0 defeat to Chelsea in October, just three days after beating Fenerbahce in the Europa League. Likewise, they lost 3-1 to Watford after their 1-0 defeat at Feyenoord in September.

Chelsea players celebrate after going 4-0 up against Manchester United
Image: Chelsea players celebrate after going 4-0 up against Manchester United

However, Southampton's domestic results have improved during weeks with European football. The Saints have won 40 per cent of games after Europa League ties, compared to a mere 25 per cent in non-European football weeks.

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Impact of EL commitments on PL results this season

Team PL games during EL week Avg. points PL games during week without EL Avg. points
Man Utd 5 1 8 1.875
Southampton 5 1.6 8 1.125

Interestingly, Southampton's results reflect an historical trend. Eight of the last 12 clubs to have played in the Europa League since 2011/12 have averaged more points after their European fixtures than in other league games. 

In fact, during the 2011/12 season, Tottenham, Stoke and Fulham averaged considerably more points in Premier League games after Europa League fixtures. 

Tottenham, Liverpool, Everton, Swansea, Newcastle, Stoke, Fulham records since 2011/12

Club Seasons in EL PL record after EL games PL record in non-EL week
Tottenham 11/12, 12/13, 13/14, 14/15, 15/16 P45 W24 D6 L15 (1.73pts per game) P145 W76 D38 L31 (1.83pts per game)
Liverpool 12/13, 15/16 P19 W6 D9 L4 (1.4pts per game) P57 W26 D16 L15 (1.65 pts per game)
Everton 14/15 P10 W4 D2 L4 (1.4 pts per game) P28 W8 D9 L11 (1.18 pts per game)
Swansea 13/14 P8 W2 D3 L3 (1.13 pts per game) P30 W9 D6 L15 (1.1 pts per game)
Newcastle 12/13 P13 W5 D1 L7 (1.23 pts per game) P25 W6 D7 L12 (1 pt per game)
Stoke 11/12 P9 W5 D1 L3 (1.78 pts per game) P29 W6 D11 L12 (1 pts per game)
Fulham 11/12 P8 W5 D1 L2 (2 pts per game) P30 W9 D9 L12 (1.2 pts per game)

That season, Tottenham averaged 2.25 points per game after their Europa League ties, compared with 1.7 points per game in other Premier League matches. Stoke (1.78 points per game compared to one point per game) and Fulham (two points per game and 1.2 points per game) also responded well to Europa League competition.  

However, the overall record of Tottenham and Liverpool - who have played a high number of Europa League games over the past five years - shows they have taken fewer points from Premier League games which take place following a Europa League tie since 2011/12. 

Europa League play-offs played before the start of the season are not included, nor are European fixtures played before cup games or, in the case of Wigan in 2013/14 and Birmingham in 2011/12, Championship games.

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

This season, Manchester City's domestic results have seriously suffered from Champions League commitments. Their average points-per-game haul in the Premier League drops from 2.75 in non-European football weeks to 1.6 when they've played in the Champions League. Tottenham have suffered a similar problem to a lesser extent.

In contrast, Leicester's Premier League results have improved significantly after Champions League games - perhaps because the team has been buoyed by their positive performances in Europe - and Arsenal's results are marginally better after midweek action, too.

Impact of CL commitments on PL results this season

Team PL games during CL week Avg. pts PL games during week without CL Avg. pts
Manchester City 5 1.6 8 2.75
Tottenham 5 1.6 8 2.0
Arsenal 5 2.2 8 2.125
Leicester 5 1.6 8 0.625
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In 2012/13, City won 1.8 points per game after Champions League fixtures, compared to 1.16 at other times. Arsenal (in 2013/14 and 2014/15) and Chelsea (2011/12 and 2013/14) have experienced similar trends.

In 2014/15, Liverpool had a better record after not playing in the Champions League. Under Brendan Rodgers, the Reds took 1.7 points per game when they had not previously played in the Champions League compared with 1.17 when they had.

Man Utd, Man City, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool CL records since 2011/12

Club Seasons in CL PL record after CL games PL record in non-CL week
Arsenal 11/12, 12/13, 13/14, 14/15, 15/16, 16/17 P51 W29 D8 L14 (1.86 pts per game) P152 W87 D40 L25 (1.98 pts per game)
Chelsea 11/12, 12/13, 13/14, 14/15, 15/16 P46 W26 D5 L15 (1.8 pts per game) P144 W77 D39 L28 (1.9 pts per game)
Man City 11/12, 12/13, 13/14, 14/15, 15/16, 16/17 P43 W21 D12 L10 (1.74 pts per game) P160 W109 D26 L25 (2.2 pts per game)
Man Utd 11/12, 12/13, 13/14, 15/16 P 32 W21 D4 L7( 2.09 pts per game) P120 W73 D22 L25 (2.01 pts per game)
Liverpool 14/15 P6 W2 D1 L3 (1.17 pts per game) P32 W16 D7 L9 (1.7pts per game)
Tottenham 16/17 P5 W2 D2 L1 (1.6 pts per game) P8 W4 D4 L0 (2.0 pts per game)
Leicester 16/17 P5 W2 D2 L1 (1.6 pts per game) P8 W1 D2 L4 (0.63 pts per game)

Arsenal, Man City and Chelsea have taken part in the last five Champions League competitions and over that period average a worse points-per-game return in Premier League fixtures taking place after Champions League rounds.

City have suffered more than most, with their points-per-game haul in the Premier League dropping from 2.18 when they have not played in the Champions League earlier in the week, to 1.76 when they have. That's a 19 per cent decrease.

Interestingly, Manchester United have participated in the Champions League four times over the last five years and have a better record in Premier League matches played after those European games.

The improvement is marginal - taking an average of 2.09 points per game in the Premier League following Champions League action, dropping to 2.01 points per game when they have not. A margin United fans would prefer this term after Europa League exertions. 

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