Thursday 6 April 2017 10:38, UK
Following Chelsea's 2-1 win over Manchester City at Stamford Bridge on Wednesday night, Adam Bate picks out three reasons why Antonio Conte has had the edge over Pep Guardiola this season.
There was much excitement in the summer at the prospect of two of Europe's greatest coaches coming to work in England for the first time. Pep Guardiola had won a trio of titles in both Spain and Germany, while Antonio Conte had lifted the trophy in Italy three times.
But it was the Manchester City man who was expected to hit the ground running. He was 9/4 with Sky Bet to take City to the title, while Chelsea were 5/1 outsiders - a reflection of the fact that the Blues had only finished 10th the previous season. But it is Conte who has delivered.
"He's an excellent manager," said Guardiola on the eve of their clash on Wednesday night. "I learn a lot when I see his teams - Juventus, Italy and now. I like to do that because you see what they want to do. Their teams control a lot of aspects. Maybe he's the best."
He's certainly had the better of it in the Premier League this season with Conte becoming the first manager to do the double over Guardiola in a league season. His Chelsea side seem set to win the Premier League title too as they are still seven points clear at the top.
So what's been the key to Conte outperforming Guardiola in the Premier League so far? Well, it's been a combination of good decisions and bad luck. Here are three of the key factors that have led to their contrasting fortunes in their first season in English football…
Big players and big moments
Eden Hazard has scored more impressive goals than the two he managed against City at the Bridge, netting thanks to a deflected shot and a rebound from a missed penalty. But the Belgian was impressive again and has proven decisive in key moments for Conte this season.
Hazard's previous goal at Stamford Bridge had been against Arsenal and his previous two-goal haul came against Everton. Having also scored at City and against Manchester United, the majority of his 13 Premier League goals this season have been against the top seven.
It's an unusual statistic and Guardiola will no doubt feel that his own star names have not replicated that with big moments going against his side. Not only have City surrendered leads to Chelsea, Tottenham and Arsenal this season but they have also wasted chances to extend their advantages.
From Kevin De Bruyne's amazing miss against Chelsea at the Etihad to Sergio's Aguero headed chance to double City's lead over Arsenal last week, Guardiola's men have wasted a series of clear opportunities - much to the exasperation of their manager.
It's been a particular problem in those big games. In fact, according to Opta, City have scored only nine of their 26 clear chances (35 per cent) against fellow top-seven teams compared to 30 out of 51 (59 per cent) against the rest. That has been a huge issue for Guardiola.
Key changes that have paid off
If the City boss can claim to have been unfortunate in that respect, some of the team's issues can be firmly laid at his door. Most notably, the sort of goalkeeper error by Willy Caballero that saw him allow Hazard's shot to squirm beyond him for the opening goal on Wednesday.
Few felt the 35-year-old Argentine and long-time back-up goalkeeper was up to the challenge of being a starter in a title-winning team and his mere presence in the City goal is a reflection on Claudio Bravo's shockingly bad start to life in England.
The Chilean became the second most expensive goalkeeper in Premier League history when Guardiola decided to replace Joe Hart, but Bravo has since lost his place as a result of having the worst save percentage of any keeper to make 10 or more appearances this season.
Ironically, Thibaut Courtois made an error of his own at the other end against City. And yet, it is clear that Conte not only possesses the superior goalkeeper but that - in contrast to his City counterpart - he has succeeded in getting the biggest decisions right for Chelsea this season.
The signing of David Luiz was seen as a gamble, as was the switch to 3-4-3, but both moves have proven spectacularly successful. N'Golo Kante has been an excellent signing too, while various issues regarding Diego Costa, Cesc Fabregas and John Terry have been expertly handled.
Settled system and simple instructions
Conte says his man-management would be better still if he had a greater grasp of English. "In Italy, for me, honestly, it was easier to find the right words to motivate my players," he admitted after the City game. "I'm not at a great level to give motivational talks. But I try."
He has succeeded by keeping it simple and keeping the changes to a minimum. Chelsea have played their 3-4-3 on 22 occasions so far this season. In contrast, according to Opta, City have used seven different formations - using no one system more than a dozen times thus far.
It's the same with the personnel. Chelsea won six games in a row with the same side earlier this season. Guardiola is yet to name an unchanged line-up. Whether that's a cause of Chelsea's success or an effect of it, Conte's philosophy would appear easier to grasp.
Guardiola, meanwhile, remains confident that City will get to the level he wants them eventually but acknowledges it will take time. "Next season will be better," he said as long ago as December. "Two years will be better. Give me time."
He is certain to get more of that. But for the reasons outlined above, Conte did not need that time to bring trophies back to Stamford Bridge. Clearly, it's the Chelsea boss who has had the edge on his fellow super-coach so far.
Sky customers can now upgrade to Sky Sports and get 12 months for just £18 per month. Upgrade now!
