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Harry Kane, Jamie Vardy, Sergio Aguero, Romelu Lukaku or Riyad Mahrez? Premier League Golden Boot race analysed

Aguero
Image: Who will claim the 2015/16 Golden Boot?

After his hat-trick at Chelsea, can Man City's Sergio Aguero clinch the Premier League Golden Boot?

While Leicester and Tottenham focus on English football's top prize, up to five players also have their sights set on another award.

Aguero's treble at Stamford Bridge has lifted him to within one goal of leading marksman Harry Kane, while Jamie Vardy, Romelu Lukaku and even Riyad Mahrez also have eyes on the summit. 

So who will join the likes of Alan Shearer, Thierry Henry and Cristiano Ronaldo in lifting the top-goalscorer gong? Here, we take an in-depth look at the contest...

Previous Golden Boot winners

Season Player Team Goals
2014/15 Sergio Aguero Man City 26
2013/14 Luis Suarez Liverpool 31
2012/13 Robin van Persie Man Utd 26
2011/12 Robin van Persie Arsenal 30
2010/11 Dimitar Berbatov Man Utd 20
Carlos Tevez Man City 20

State of play

It's Tottenham's Kane who leads the way with 22 goals, the latest of which earned Spurs a point at Anfield in early April.

Harry Kane celebrates after giving Spurs the lead
Image: Harry Kane leads the Golden Boot race with 22 goals

However, Aguero and Leicester striker Vardy are just one back. Everton frontman Lukaku is on 18 but his goals appear to have dried up following his breath-taking start to the campaign. Mahrez, meanwhile, completes the quintet on 16 goals having handed over the goalscoring mantle to Foxes team-mate Vardy in recent weeks. 

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Aguero

Remaining fixtures

Ahead of Sunday's fixtures, Kane, Aguero, Vardy and Mahrez have just five matches remaining to add to their respective tallies.

Kane's Tottenham travel away to Stoke, Chelsea and Newcastle in their final five games and welcome West Brom and Southampton to White Hart Lane. That run of games could benefit Kane, with 12 of his 22 goals coming on the road for Mauricio Pochettino's side.

Leicester's fixtures fall opposite to their main title rivals Spurs, with three of their remaining five games taking place at the King Power Stadium. This slight adjustment is unlikely affect Vardy, whose 21 goals are split 11 at home and 10 away.

LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND - DECEMBER 26:  Riyad Mahrez of Leicester City (r) holds back Jamie Vardy of Leicester City during the Barclays Premier League match bet
Image: Will Vardy or Mahrez add the Golden Boot to a potential Premier League winners' medal?

It's a different story for Mahrez, though. Only four of his 16 league goals have come at home, and with tough trips to Manchester United and Chelsea accounting for the remaining away fixtures, his challenge could well be weakened.

Lukaku's 18 goals have been evenly split at home and away so the only advantage he may receive comes by the fact he has at least one games' advantage on his rivals.

Thirteen of Aguero's 21 goals have come at the Etihad Stadium, but he will not have the luxury of home comforts, with three of Manchester City's final five games coming on the road. 

Remaining fixtures

Harry Kane Jamie Vardy Sergio Aguero Romelu Lukaku
Stoke (a) West Ham (h)
- - Newcastle (a) Liverpool (a)
West Brom (h) Swansea (h) Stoke (h) -
Chelsea (a) Man Utd (a) So'ton (a) B'mouth (h)
So'ton (h) Everton (h) Arsenal (h) Leicester (a)
- - - Sunderland (a)
Newcastle (a) Chelsea (a) Swansea (a) Norwich (h)

Repeat performance?

Remarkably, Lukaku and Aguero would share the Golden Boot if they were to repeat their goalscoring form against their remaining opponents. The Belgian, who has played two games fewer than Kane, Vardy and Mahrez, and one game fewer than Aguero, notched an impressive eight goals in the corresponding fixtures - a repeat would take his tally to 24 goals.

Aguero would also finish on 24 goals, with his current tally of 21 boosted by a further three goals he scored against Newcastle.

LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND - DECEMBER 26:  Riyad Mahrez of Leicester City (r) holds back Jamie Vardy of Leicester City during the Barclays Premier League match bet
Image: Will Vardy or Mahrez add the Golden Boot to a potential Premier League winners' medal?

Kane and Vardy would be tied third, with the pair adding just one and two goals to their current tallies if they were to replicate their goals from earlier on in the season.

Mahrez, meanwhile, would remain fifth despite scoring six goals in the corresponding fixtures first time around. It appears the Algerian may have too big a gap to bridge.

Golden Boot 15/16 (if results repeated)

Player Team Current total Goals in reverse fixtures Total
Romelu Lukaku Everton 18 +6 24
Sergio Aguero Man City 21 +3 24
Harry Kane Tottenham 22 +1 23
Jamie Vardy Leicester 21 +2 23
Riyad Mahrez Leicester 16 +6 22

Sky Sports pundit Jamie Redknapp's verdict

"Aguero's hat-trick at Chelsea has blown the whole Golden Boot race wide open. It's great to see two English players in the mix and I'd love to see one them do it. 

"Is Aguero going to play every game with the Champions League semi-finals coming up for Man City? Is Manuel Pellegrini going to rest him? He took him off with five minutes to go against Chelsea and he's had muscle injuries in the past.

"As for Lukaku, I think he might just have a bit too much to do."

 Sky Sports pundit Graeme Souness' verdict

"There might be an element with Aguero that he needs to play to be at his best. Strikers have to be at their sharpest, at it all the time. Looking at his shape, I think he's someone who needs to be worked all the time and can't be rested too much.

"I'd like to think as well he's someone who wouldn't want to miss a training session or a game, knocking on the manager's door, saying he wants to be part of everything going on." 

Who do you think will hold their nerve and claim this season's Golden Boot? Leave a comment below or tweet us @SkyFootball

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