How do Man City cope without the suspended Sergio Aguero?
Monday 5 December 2016 14:51, UK
Sergio Aguero has been handed a four-game suspension after he was sent off for a wild challenge on David Luiz in Manchester City's 3-1 defeat to Chelsea on Saturday.
The striker's studs-up lunge sparked a mass scuffle in the dying minutes at the Etihad Stadium, with Fernandinho also shown a straight red card after clashing with Chelsea's Cesc Fabregas.
Aguero has received an extended ban as he has already served a three-game suspension this season for elbowing West Ham defender Winston Reid during City's 3-1 win over the Hammers in August.
It means he will miss City's upcoming clashes with Leicester, Watford, Arsenal and Hull, and it's a headache for Pep Guardiola as he looks to keep in touch with Antonio Conte's side during the frantic Christmas period.
Aguero has been City's top scorer in each of the last five seasons and he has shown his importance to the side in the new campaign with 10 Premier League goals in 12 appearances.
His absence will have City's upcoming opponents breathing a sigh of relief, but the stats make surprising reading. In fact, City can take comfort from their recent record without him.
Since the start of last season, they have actually averaged more points and more goals scored in the 12 Premier League games he has missed compared to the 40 Premier League games he has started.
It gives them a superior win percentage without Aguero, and City have also averaged more possession when he is not in the team.
Guardiola will be hoping that trend continues in the weeks ahead, but he still needs to decide how to adjust his team. City's new £27m striker Gabriel Jesus was pictured in the stands on Saturday, but the Brazilian will not be available until January. So what are the options?
Another chance for Iheanacho?
The only natural replacement is Kelechi Iheanacho. The Nigerian has not started a Premier League game since October, but he came into the team during Aguero's last suspension and made a match-winning impact in City's 2-1 win over Manchester United at Old Trafford.
Iheanacho rose above Eric Bailly to flick on a long ball on for Kevin de Bruyne to score the opening goal, and he netted City's second himself after De Bruyne's low effort had bounced back off the post.
The 20-year-old was similarly impressive in their 4-0 win over Bournemouth a week later, netting from Raheem Sterling's cut-back before setting up the England international to extend City's lead.
It was a continuation of last season, when he broke into the first-team under Manuel Pellegrini and developed a knack for making the most of his opportunities.
In fact, with 11 goals in 1050 minutes, Iheanacho has the best minutes-per-goal ratio of any Premier League player to have scored more than 10 times since the start of the last campaign.
Iheanacho's average of a goal every 95.45 minutes puts him ahead of Aguero, and he has also contributed four assists - twice as many as his team-mate despite only playing a third of the minutes.
It remains to be seen whether the youngster can sustain his impressive strike-rate over a longer period, but recent history suggests another brief stint in the team would suit him perfectly.
A false nine?
While Iheanacho is the only other natural striker at Guardiola's disposal, the former Barcelona coach could opt to deploy a false nine instead.
He certainly has a history for it. One of Guardiola's greatest innovations was to use Lionel Messi as a false nine at Barcelona, and he used the tactic again when City travelled to the Nou Camp earlier this season.
Kevin de Bruyne was the player chosen for the role, with Aguero demoted to the bench. City collapsed after Claudio Bravo's second-half sending off, but it wouldn't be too much of a surprise to see Guardiola revisit the approach in the weeks ahead.
While sacrificing a striker for a midfield player might be seen as counter-productive to scoring, it can be an effective method of exerting control. City had an almost even share of possession at the Nou Camp, after all, and De Bruyne's deployment through the middle also helped their pressing game.
De Bruyne is the only player to have been used in that role this season, but Guardiola is never afraid to try something new, and the likes of Raheem Sterling, Leroy Sane and Nolito might also be candidates to move into the middle.
Conclusion
Losing a player of Aguero's calibre is undoubted blow, but City won at Old Trafford during his last suspension and the stats suggest his absence might not be quite as damaging as it has been made out to be.
Iheanacho may be inexperienced, but his scoring record is unrivalled over the last two seasons in the Premier League and he will be eager to make the most of his next chance to impress. Alternatively, Guardiola can turn to a false nine - an approach which has served him well in the past.
The Argentine's four-game ban is far from ideal, but recent history suggests City have what it takes to sustain their title challenge without him.
Upgrade to Sky Sports now and get six months half price.
