The next Leicester City? Plymouth defying odds of 5,000/1 in Sky Bet League One promotion push
Tuesday 27 February 2018 16:12, UK
Ever since Leicester defied odds of 5,000/1 to win the Premier League, sport has been on the search for the next underdog to overcome previously unprecedented odds. Look no further, that story may be about to arrive in the form of Plymouth Argyle.
Greece's Euro 2004 heroics did not match it, Goran Ivanisevic's odds were not even close to Leicester's 5,000/1 when he won Wimbledon as a wildcard, but when the Pilgrims started December with a 3-1 FA Cup defeat to Sky Bet League One rivals Bradford, the EFL sponsor gave them those exact odds on securing promotion.
Bookmakers had stopped offering such pre-season odds due to the eye-watering liabilities being racked up as punters looked to emulate those pocketed five-figure pay-outs after backing the Foxes. However, Plymouth's woeful opening 20 games lured Sky Bet into finally re-offering the price which had caused an £8m payout just 18 months earlier.
With just 17 points to their name, Derek Adams' men had slumped to bottom of the table, 17 points adrift of the top six and another two behind their hosts, who had climbed to fourth the week prior. The fortunes of the two clubs could not have been more contrasting prior to the encounter.
However, fast forward a little less than three months and Plymouth have replaced the Bantams in the top six and are the country's in-form side, having won 11 and lost just one of their last 15 games, including a six-game winning streak on the back of that defeat.
The club's change of fortunes has coincided with differing approaches at boardroom level. While Pilgrims chairman James Brent opted to keep faith with Adams, despite his team propping up the division, Bradford sacked Stuart McCall while the club still in the play-offs.
Adams did have a fairly solid excuse for his side's problems, losing four goalkeepers to injuries at one point, although that has proved to be a blessing in disguise, with emergency loanee Remi Matthews keeping a clean sheet for half of his 18 appearances since arriving from Norwich.
This story does have one fundamental flaw, though. Not one single punter backed Plymouth to be promoted at odds of 5,000/1 despite it being available on four different occasions during December.
Sky Bet report 15 punters have backed them at either 1,000/1 or 1,500/1, meaning they have a £1m liability if they are promoted and £620k if they make the play-offs, but the bookmaker is not sweating to the same degree as when Claudio Ranieri made a mockery of Leicester's pricing.
However, perhaps that makes this story even more remarkable than Leicester's, with not even the most loyal of supporters thinking their side were capable of defying the longest odds bookmakers have ever paid out at.
