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How can Northern Ireland qualify? Permutations for Euro 2016 Group C

By James Kilpatrick

Friday 17 June 2016 12:26, UK

Northern Ireland players celebrate their first goal by Gareth McAuley
Image: Northern Ireland's win over Ukraine means they are on the edge of Euro 2016 qualification

We explain the permutations for Northern Ireland ahead of their clash against Germany on Tuesday night.

Northern Ireland secured their first-ever win in a European Championship against Ukraine.

Now, as Michael O'Neill's side prepare to face Germany on Tuesday in Paris, we go through the potential permutations following their big win.

Euro 2016 Group C table

Team Pl W D L F A GD Pts
1. Germany 2 1 1 0 2 0 2 4
2. Poland 2 1 1 0 1 0 1 4
3. N Ireland 2 1 0 1 2 1 1 3
4. Ukraine 2 0 0 2 0 4 -4 0

What happens if Northern Ireland win on Tuesday?

If Northern Ireland win, then they would be a guaranteed a first or second place finish. This would depend on whether Poland can beat Ukraine. Should Poland lose or draw and Northern Ireland win, then they will finish first and play against the third-placed team from Group A, B or F on Saturday June 25 in Lille.

If Poland win, meaning Michael O'Neill's side would finish in second place, then Northern Ireland will play the runners-up of Group A on Saturday June 25 in Saint Etienne.

What if it's a draw?

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If Northern Ireland draw with the world champions then they will be guaranteed to finish in third place. Even if last-placed Ukraine beat Poland, then they would still be one point ahead.

Four points would guarantee a third-placed finish. If this happens, then Northern Ireland will face the winner of Group B on Saturday June 25 in Lille. Alternatively, they could face the winner of Group A on Saturday June 25 in Lyon. 

Potential last 16 opponents

  • Finish top: Third place in Group A, B or F in Lille on Sun June 26
  • Finish second: Runner-up in Group A in Saint Etienne on Sat June 25
  • Finish third: Group B winner in Paris on Sat June 25 or Group A winner in Lyon on Sun June 26

What if Northern Ireland lose to Germany?

If Northern Ireland lose to Germany, then they would still be guaranteed a third-placed finish. Even if Ukraine win and go level with Northern Ireland on points, it would not be enough as Northern Ireland would stay in third by virtue of their head-to-head record.

How teams on same number of points are separated

a. higher number of points obtained in the matches played among the teams in question
b. superior goal difference resulting from the matches played among the teams in question
c. higher number of goals scored in the matches played among the teams in question
d. if, after having applied criteria a-c, teams still have an equal ranking, criteria a-c are reapplied exclusively to the matches between the teams in question to determine their final rankings. If this procedure does not lead to a decision, criteria e-h apply
e. superior goal difference in all group matches
f. higher number of goals scored in all group matches
g. fair play conduct in the final tournament as defined in Annex C.5.1 in UEFA regulations
h. position in the UEFA national team coefficient rankings
*If two teams which have the same number of points and the same number of goals scored and conceded play their last group match against each other and are still equal at the end of that match, their final rankings are determined by a penalty shoot-out.

Can Northern Ireland qualify without kicking a ball?

Should Northern Ireland finish on three points, then they would have to hope that would be enough to secure a last-16 spot as one of the best third-place teams.

Best third-placed teams

The four best third-placed teams are determined according to the following criteria applied, in the order given, to the final tournament group matches
a. higher number of points obtained
b. superior goal difference
c. higher number of goals scored
d. fair play conduct in the final tournament as defined in Annex C.5.1 of UEFA regulations
e. position in the UEFA national team coefficient rankings.

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