Monday 12 December 2016 22:58, UK
Sky Sports' Spanish football expert Guillem Balague runs through the cases for the five favourites for Monday night's Ballon d'Or ceremony.
The first thing to say is that now the Ballon d'Or is voted for by journalists, you should definitely admit that anybody who wins it deserves it, because it is decided by the guys who follow football constantly.
I'm pretty sure, in the last few years, that all journalists would have agreed that either Cristiano Ronaldo or Lionel Messi deserved to win it. In fact, there were two exceptions in recent years. In 2010 journalists votes went to Wesley Sneijder and in 2013 to Franck Ribery, which would have meant one less Ballon d'Or for Messi and one less for Ronaldo.
I heard from Paco Aguilar of Mundo Deportivo that Cristiano Ronaldo is going to win it this year. Does he deserve it? Well, let's take a look at the contenders.
In Ronaldo's case, he certainly owned all of the pictures in 2016, all the big moments, but he had no influence in the Champions League final apart from the fifth penalty, and no influence in the Euro 2016 final for Portugal. But he was crucial for both of his teams in getting to the showpiece event.
He scored his usual 50 plus goals in the calendar year, but Real Madrid did not win La Liga or the Copa del Rey. He had a fine goalscoring record in the Champions League, netting 16 times in 12 games.
Messi won both the league and the cup, again with a very good goalscoring record. He lost in the Copa America final, so had as much going for him in 2016 as Ronaldo did, in a way. That should be how the votes get decided, on the importance of players in big competitions.
With Antoine Griezmann, the thing he has been missing is a team title, but he was extremely important to France, and was their best player at Euro 2016.
With Atletico Madrid he reached the level of the top three, and I completely agree he is one of the top three players in the world, but he is one or two steps below Messi and Ronaldo.
Gareth Bale has shown to be the most influential Real Madrid player this season and had a superb European Championship, but he struggled last term, so has had an irregular 2016.
Luis Suarez has the cup and the league under his belt, and the goals to boot. He had a fantastic season in 2015/16, but this season he is struggling slightly for goals. Nevertheless, his 2016 was as good as Griezmann's.
Gareth Bale is still not perceived as one of the top two players in the world. But his work in the European Championships, putting Wales on his shoulders to go the furthest they have ever been, would have made it legendary if he was not sharing the spot light with the two other monsters, Lionel and Cristiano
Which one is the best? It's one that we can argue for days. For many, Cristiano is the automatic choice. I really don't know who to hand it to myself, but it would be between Messi and Ronaldo; while they are still influential, it would always have to be between those two.
I do understand that the two most glamorous titles had Cristiano involved. But there is a powerful argument to be made for Messi, because in the long-form competition he was the most important footballer. I can't make my mind up, but if you made me choose, I would go for the one that impressed the most in the long competitions. And that is Messi.
