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Paul Merson's Euro 2016 last-16 predictions: Who will progress?

Paul Merson
Image: Paul Merson gives his predictions for Italy v Spain and England v Iceland

The last 16 concludes on Monday with Italy v Spain and England v Iceland - who will make the Euro 2016 quarter-finals?

Italy face Spain in a heavyweight clash at the Stade de France, before England take on Iceland in Nice.

Who is Sky Sports football expert Paul Merson backing to get through? Read on to see his predictions, and how his other tips fared...

Italy v Spain - Monday, 5pm

How's your luck Italy? One of the first teams to qualify for the last 16 and they get Spain. It makes no sense. First plays second but in another group, first plays third. It's ridiculous.

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Italy coach Antonio Conte reacts to drawing Spain in the last 16 after finishing top of Group E

I would not be surprised if it was goalless. It should be a tight game as there isn't anything between these teams. Spain are alright when everything is going their way like it was against Turkey, but when it isn't going their way, then they are a different team and I don't think Italy will let them have it their own way. Defensively, Italy will not find Spain that difficult.

PAUL PREDICTS: Italy on penalties - RESULT: 2-0

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Guillem Balague believes Spain could revert to two defensive midfielders for their game with Italy

England v Iceland - Monday, 8pm

If we don't win this, then it would surely be the biggest shock in the history of the European Championships. More people live in London than they do in Iceland. Nearly more people live in Newcastle. You have to put it in perspective.

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Sky Sports' Alan Smith looks ahead to England's attacking choices for their last-16 clash with Iceland

I can't see anything but an England win. We couldn't have wished for a better draw. My only worry is that Iceland have a long throw and when you have that, like Stoke and Wimbledon used to have, then you are always in the match. They scored from it the other day so that is something for England to look out for.

PAUL PREDICTS: 3-0 (9/1 with Sky Bet)

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Sky Bet's Dale Tempest focuses on the first goalscorer market for England v Iceland. But will punters agree that Danny Rose is good value at 33-1?

Merson's earlier predictions...

Switzerland v Poland

I quite like what I have seen from Poland. They look solid and were unlucky against Germany. Robert Lewandowski will come to the party soon.

Poland have got a good side and they have a chance with Lewandowski, who is world class. When you have that in your team you have always got an opportunity. It's a wide open tournament and anybody can go far.

PAUL PREDICTED: 1-2 - RESULT: 1-1 (4-5 ON PENS)

Wales v Northern Ireland

What a game. Wales got a great result against Russia to finish top of the group. Northern Ireland worked their socks off against Germany, they could have got beaten by a lot but dug in and the keeper had a great game.

I just think Wales have the X-factor in Gareth Bale and that could decide the game. Wales won't dominate possession - they are not a top European team who will pass it around for fun - and Northern Ireland will have a go. 

PAUL PREDICTED: 2-1 - RESULT: 1-0

Croatia v Portugal 

This is a hard game to call. Everybody is saying Croatia are the ones to look out for in the draw but Portugal have a chance with Cristiano Ronaldo on his game.

I don't think Portugal are very good at the back but going forward they have quality with Ronaldo, so they might just shade it.

PAUL PREDICTED: 2-3 - RESULT: 0-1

France v Republic of Ireland

I know Italy made a few changes the other day but I thought Ireland were really good and they took their chance at the end. I predicted France to win at the start of the tournament but I don't think they will now. They haven't been as good as I thought and I think they will get more nervous as the tournament progresses.

They have fallen over the line a few times already and I wouldn't be surprised if this game went to extra-time or penalties. I would be more than happy to play France in the quarter-finals.

PAUL PREDICTED: 2-1 - RESULT: 2-1

Germany v Slovakia

Slovakia were absolutely atrocious against England, they brought nothing to the party. They beat Germany in a friendly before Euro 2016 so that will give them confidence, but the way Germany played against Northern Ireland it could have been any score.

Slovakia will try and play like they did against England and defend all match, but Germany are a better team than England and they will break them down. I think Germany will get better as the tournament goes on. They created a lot of chances against Northern Ireland and were a bit lucky against Poland, but they will improve.

PAUL PREDICTED: 2-0 - RESULT: 3-0

Hungary v Belgium

What a turnaround for Belgium. They were poor in their first game against Italy and then bang, they have won two games and are flying. They are one of the form teams at the Euros.

Eden Hazard has looked better and they will be too good for Hungary. I like watching Hungary play, they have a go and sometimes you get luck when you have a go, but Belgium should progress.

PAUL PREDICTED: 1-2 - RESULT: 0-4

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