Tuesday 7 June 2016 12:33, UK
England may face one of 16 different nations in the last 16 of the European Championship this summer, should they progress from their group in France.
For the first time at a major competition (that England are eligible to qualify for) since the 1994 World Cup, a third-place ranking system will be used to determine the progression of some teams from the group stage.
The new 24-team format being used throws up a whole host of variables for England's potential last-16 opponents at Euro 2016 - should they progress that far.
As well as the top two finishers - who qualify for the knockout rounds automatically - the four best third-placed teams from the six groups will also qualify in order to fill up the 16 spots in the extra round between the group stage and the quarter-finals.
To give you an idea of the increased complexity of the permutations involved, at the last World Cup England, placed in Group D, could only have faced one of the four teams from Group C in the last 16.
In France this summer, however, England could potentially face one of 16 teams in the last-16, depending on where every team finishes in the group stage. The only teams they can't face in the first knockout round are any team from their own group (B), or Group E (Belgium, Italy, Republic of Ireland or Sweden).
Should England top Group B, they will face the third-place team in Group A, C or D in the last-16 on Saturday, June 25 at the Parc des Princes in Paris.
Based on the permutations in the table, there is a 7/15 chance of facing the third-placed team in Group A (France, Switzerland, Romania or Albania) and a 7/15 chance of facing the third-placed team in Group D (Spain, Czech Republic, Turkey or Croatia).
There is also a 1/15 chance of facing the team that finishes third in Group C (Germany, Ukraine, Poland or Northern Ireland).
The most straightforward thing that could happen would be for England to finish second in Group B.
That would mean the only side they could play is the side that finishes second in Group F (Portugal, Austria, Iceland or Hungary).
Things get a little complicated if England come third in their group. First of all, they will need to finish as one of the best four from all six third-place teams across all groups in order to progress to the last-16. The teams are then ordered depending on their performances, and that ranking determines their slot in the second-round fixtures.
At the 1994 World Cup, the last competition to employ this rankings system (and the only time a major tournament has done so using three points for a win), no third-placed team progressed with fewer than four points from the group stage (Italy squeezed through as the fourth best third-placed team before making it all the way to the final), suggesting a win and a draw in Group B would be enough for England to go through.
Based on the permutations table, England would then have a 9/10 chance of facing the winners of Group C (potentially Germany) or a 1/10 chance of playing the victors of Group D (potentially Spain).
Another issue that could arise if they finish third in their group would be that England, who play their final group game against Slovakia on June 20, may have to wait two more days to find out: A) if they progress, and B) who they would play. A worst-case scenario could see England left with less than three days to prepare for a last-16 meeting with Spain.
In terms of planning for the last-16, finishing second in the group would arguably be the best result for England, as they will have two more days to prepare for the game than if they finished top of Group B - playing on June 27 rather than June 25 - and would be able to narrow down their opponents to one of four sides (or less, depending on what has happened in Group F up to that point), rather than one of 13.
Whatever happens, though, should England progress it will be unlikely that we'll know who they're playing in the last-16 until the very final day of the group stage on June 22.
