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How can England qualify? Permutations for Euro 2016 Group B

England's goalkeeper Joe Hart (2nd R) and team-mates celebrate against Wales
Image: England's win over Wales has put qualification in their own hands

England are top of Group B following Thursday's 2-1 victory over Wales - but what do they need to do to secure qualification to the last 16 of Euro 2016?

Daniel Sturridge's injury-time goal in Lens means progress is now in England's hands ahead of Monday's final group game against Slovakia.

And they could even qualify before next Monday's clash with Slovakia, if certain results go their way...

Euro 2016 Group B table

Team Pl W D L F A GD Pts
1. England 2 1 1 0 3 2 1 4
2. Wales 2 1 0 1 3 3 0 3
3. Slovakia 2 1 0 1 3 3 0 3
4. Russia 2 o 1 1 2 3 -1 1

What happens if England win on Monday?

It's simple. A win in that game would guarantee first place and a fixture against the third-place team from Group A, C or D on Saturday June 25 in Paris.

What if it's a draw?

A draw against Slovakia would guarantee a spot in the last 16 whatever happens - but it would open the door for Wales to top the group by beating Russia.

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However, England would still secure top spot if Wales fail to beat Russia.

Potential last 16 opponents

  • Finish top: Third place in Group A, C or D in Paris on Sat June 25
  • Finish second: Runner-up in Group F in Nice on Mon June 27
  • Finish third: Group D winner in Lens on Sat June 25 or Group C winner in Lille on Sun June 26

What if England lose to Slovakia?

England could still progress if they lose to Slovakia, although they would fall behind Monday's opponents in the standings and would not finish top.

If England lose, then a draw in the other match would be the best outcome for Hodgson as that would see them finish second in the group and set up a clash with the runners-up in Group F on Monday June 27 in Nice.

If Russia win, then it would come down to goal difference, then goals scored and then a variety of other scenarios to determine who finishes second and who finishes third.

Victory for Wales would definitely push Hodgson's side into third place and leave them waiting to see if they will finish as one of the four best third-place teams.

If they finish third and qualify, they would face the winner of Group C (Germany's group) or Group D (Spain's group) in the last 16.

How teams on same number of points are separated

a. higher number of points obtained in the matches played among the teams in question
b. superior goal difference resulting from the matches played among the teams in question
c. higher number of goals scored in the matches played among the teams in question
d. if, after having applied criteria a-c, teams still have an equal ranking, criteria a-c are reapplied exclusively to the matches between the teams in question to determine their final rankings. If this procedure does not lead to a decision, criteria e-h apply:
e. superior goal difference in all group matches
f. higher number of goals scored in all group matches
g. fair play conduct in the final tournament as defined in Annex C.5.1 in UEFA regulations
h. position in the UEFA national team coefficient rankings
*If two teams which have the same number of points and the same number of goals scored and conceded play their last group match against each other and are still equal at the end of that match, their final rankings are determined by a penalty shoot-out.

Can England qualify without kicking a ball?

Yes. England cannot now finish bottom of Group B and will finish at least third if they lose to Slovakia. And they could secure qualification before they next play, if the following scenario occurs.

Firstly, Croatia must beat Czech Republic and Spain must beat Turkey in Friday evening's Group D matches.

Then Romania must fail to beat Albania when Group A concludes on Sunday evening.

Those results would mean the third-place team in those groups would have a maximum of three points and England - already on four points - would definitely finish as one of the four best third-place teams.

However, they would play a group winner - likely Germany or Spain - in the last 16 so would still want to pick up points against Slovakia.

Best third-placed teams

The four best third-placed teams are determined according to the following criteria applied, in the order given, to the final tournament group matches:
a. higher number of points obtained
b. superior goal difference
c. higher number of goals scored
d. fair play conduct in the final tournament as defined in Annex C.5.1 of UEFA regulations
e. position in the UEFA national team coefficient rankings.

What about Wales?

Qualification is in their hands ahead of their game against Russia.

Wales could still win Group B but would need to beat Russia and hope England fail to defeat Slovakia.

Gareth Bale and Chris Gunter of Wales react after their 1-2 defeat to England
Image: Wales still have qualification in their own hands

They will finish second if both they and England win, or both England v Slovakia and Wales v Russia end in draws.

If Wales lose to Russia and Slovakia get a point or three against England, Wales will finish fourth and will definitely be out of Euro 2016.

A defeat for Wales and a win for England would leave Chris Coleman hoping that three points will be enough to secure a last-16 spot as one of the best third-place teams.

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