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Premier Predictor: Man City rated just 50/50 to finish in the top four

Thursday 12 January 2017 17:03, UK

Pep Guardiola
Image: Pep Guardiola's Manchester City are fourth in the Premier League

Manchester City have just a 53 per cent chance of being in the Champions League next year, according to the Premier Predictor.

And they’re given just a five per cent chance of winning the title in Pep Guardiola’s first year in charge – well behind hot favourites Chelsea, who have a 63 per cent probability of finishing as champions.

Manchester United are now gaining on their ‘noisy neighbours’, with a 39 per cent chance of reaching the top four, despite a poor start to the season.

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A month ago they had just a 12 per cent probability of Champions League football next season, while City had a 66 per cent chance. But a run of five straight wins for Jose Mourinho’s team, and City’s recent loss to Liverpool, have narrowed the gap.

Looking ahead to the weekend, United are given an effectively even chance of beating Liverpool at Old Trafford live on Sky Sports this Sunday, while Man City are narrow favourites to beat Everton at Goodison Park.

<<enter caption here>> at Old Trafford on January 10, 2017 in Manchester, England.
Image: Man Utd are favourites to beat Liverpool, according to the Premier Predictor

Relegation-threatened Hull, Burnley and Sunderland are set for close-run matches hosting Bournemouth, Southampton and Stoke respectively, with Watford v Middlesbrough also highly uncertain.

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Meanwhile, Chelsea and Arsenal are expected to win away at Leicester and Swansea, while Spurs and West Ham are home favourites against West Brom and Crystal Palace.

Also See:

See below for full predictions for this weekend and the rest of the season…

Premier Predictor - Each team's chances

Team Champions Top 4 Relegated Pts in simulated season Predictor ranking pts Change this week
Chelsea 63% 97% <1% 81 796 13
Tottenham 11% 74% <1% 73 758 28
Arsenal 10% 68% <1% 72 760 13
Liverpool 8% 68% <1% 72 738 9
Man City 5% 53% <1% 71 682 -9
Man Utd 3% 39% <1% 68 640 1
Everton <1% 1% <1% 55 522 -3
West Brom <1% <1% <1% 53 488 19
Burnley <1% <1% 2% 48 406 18
Southampton <1% <1% 3% 48 504 -19
Stoke <1% <1% 3% 47 399 -13
Bournemouth <1% <1% 4% 47 395 24
West Ham <1% <1% 3% 46 449 -5
Leicester <1% <1% 5% 46 503 5
Watford <1% <1% 17% 42 370 -28
Middlesbrough <1% <1% 18% 42 418 -1
Crystal Palace <1% <1% 48% 37 395 -13
Sunderland <1% <1% 54% 36 335 -18
Swansea <1% <1% 61% 36 314 -24
Hull City <1% <1% 82% 32 293 3

Premier Predictor - weekend predictions

Home team Away team Home win Away win Draw
Burnley Southampton 35% 34% 30%
Everton Man City 30% 41% 29%
Hull City Bournemouth 31% 39% 30%
Leicester City Chelsea 23% 52% 25%
Man Utd Liverpool 36% 34% 30%
Sunderland Stoke 35% 34% 30%
Swansea Arsenal 18% 62% 19%
Tottenham West Brom 76% 9% 15%
Watford Middlesbrough 36% 33% 31%
West Ham Crystal Palace 48% 23% 29%

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