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Ed Chamberlin: Arsenal v Man City on MNF could be pivotal in title race

Ed Chamberlin

Thierry Henry said two weeks ago on Super Sunday that it was about time one of the big guns grabbed hold of the title race.

Monday night gives Arsenal and Manchester City the chance to do just that. Sky Bet's two title favourites meet on Monday Night Football. What a brilliant way to start Christmas week. What an opportunity for both sides to put down a marker.

As things stand, Manchester City are Sky Bet's 6/5 favourites to win the title, with Arsenal at 11/8. This is set to be the first meeting when both teams are in the top three since January 2011.

The way things have gone so far this season, no punter holding a voucher on either side can be brimming with confidence. Both have had chances but neither side have stamped their authority on the title race, much to Thierry's frustration.

Monday night will tell us plenty. Can Arsenal produce a big match performance just as they did in this fixture at the Etihad last season? Or will City stamp their class on the game and send out an ominous Christmas message to the rest of the title contenders?

Should Man City lose on Monday night, it would be their fifth defeat this season and no team has lost five or more games before Christmas and gone on to win the top-flight title since Everton in 1987.

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Arsenal are an 11/8 chance with Sky Bet to inflict that fifth defeat on City, with the visitors at 9/5 and the draw available at 13/5. That draw price has to be of interest as it promises to be incredibly tight between these two - the last 10 Premier League meetings have produced three wins apiece and four draws plus both teams have scored 13 goals.

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The decisive area will be central midfield. Arsenal are without the two players who inspired the win at the Etihad last season. A performance that finally showed Wenger could be flexible adjusting his tactics and that Arsenal were capable of digging in and pulling off a win away from home in a big game. Francis Coquelin and Santi Cazorla were magnificent in midfield and led an impressive rearguard action.

Santi Cazorla and Francis Coquelin of Arsenal
Image: Santi Cazorla (L) and Francis Coquelin will both be missing for Arsenal

That responsibility now falls to Matthieu Flamini and Aaron Ramsey. Ramsey holds the key. He's been majestic going forward and his goal at Aston Villa on Super Sunday summed up his brilliance from box-to-box. I really enjoyed listening to Frank Lampard tell us on MNF earlier in the week all about the qualities needed to be a goalscoring midfielder and he's clearly a big fan of Ramsey.

However, as a two in front of the back four, it will be a totally different test against Manchester City. Frank described the difficulties he had adjusting to that position in the latter stage of his career. You need to be disciplined.

Arsene Wenger himself has said: "Ramsey is more of an offensive player. He is not a tactical, defensive player". If Ramsey goes awol and marauding forward it's frightening to think of the damage Yaya Toure could do running at Arsenal's back four. Ramsey could be the key player on Monday night.

Ramsey's City test
Ramsey's City test

Will Aaron Ramsey be a weakness against Manchester City? We look at the midfield battle.

The creative spark for Arsenal needs to be Mesut Ozil once again. Ozil is in sensational form and has been the top creator in the Premier League and across Europe so far this season - he has 13 assists in 15 Premier League appearances, including 11 in Arsenal's last ten games.

No player in Premier League history has had so many assists after 16 games in a season. The previous best was 12, by Cesc Fabregas last season. Ozil is on target to break Thierry Henry's record of 20 assists in a season. The big difference is Thierry also scored 24 goals that season. Ozil so far has just two.

Both teams have been top of the Premier League table already this season - Arsenal for two nights on October 24 and December 13, while Manchester City have been top for 100 nights.

More PL games live on Sky
More PL games live on Sky

Sky Sports has added 10 live Premier League matches to its 2016 schedule

But Leicester will be top at Christmas after securing a 3-2 win at Everton on Saturday. 

Claudio Ranieri's side were absolutely brilliant on Monday night against Chelsea and it's hard to argue with Jamie Carragher when he said Jamie Vardy, Riyad Mahrez and N'Golo Kante have been the league's outstanding three players this season. Mahrez's goal had Carragher leaping out of his chair on the MNF set.

Leicester are down to 12/1 to win the title - they were 20/1 before Saturday's win - and now 5/6 to finish in the top four. Every team who had the same number of points as Leicester (35) or more after 16 games of a Premier League season went on to finish in the top four - and now they've added three more points!

Riyad Mahrez celebrates after scoring his third goal during the English Premier League football match between Swansea City and Leicester City
Image: Leicester's Riyad Mahrez has been in superb form this season

In more good news for the Foxes, in five of the last six seasons, the team top of the Premier League on Christmas Day has gone on to win the title. Liverpool,  who were top at Christmas in 2013/14 but finished runners-up to Manchester City, are the only exception.

Whoever wins on Monday Night Football (Sky Sports 1, 7pm) might not go top of the table but they will definitely be Sky Bet's favourites to win the league and may just grant Thierry's wish and grab hold of this unpredictable title race. I can't wait to find out on MNF which side that will be.

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