Croatia vs Spain; European Championships Group D
Croatia vs Spain. European Championships Group D.
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Croatia v Spain preview: Vicente del Bosque aiming to top Group D with perfect record
Tuesday 21 June 2016 20:00, UK
After providing the performance of the tournament so far, Spain will hope to confirm their place as Group D winners against Croatia.
Tuesday night sees the conclusion of Spain's European Championship group, and they need just a point against second-placed Croatia in Bordeaux to stop their rivals overtaking them at the top.
Spain eased past Turkey 3-0 in the tournament's joint highest-scoring fixture so far, and looked impressive doing so as Alvaro Morata knocked two past Volkan Babacan.
Vicente Del Bosque's side beat Czech Republic 1-0 in their opening fixture, but now have arguably the toughest opponent remaining in their group.
Croatia currently sit second with four points, but will be desperate to get something against Spain, knowing they could slip to third place and away from the automatic qualification spots.
That said, it is very unlikely that Croatia would fail to qualify even if they lose to Spain, with four third-placed teams also heading through.
Albania finished third in Group A with three points, and should Croatia end their group stage campaign with four in third place, they would need just one more third-placed team with fewer than four points in order to advance.
Doing their best to make Croatia's route to the last 16 as difficult as possible though, are Del Bosque and his players. The Spain manager has been pleased with his side's performances so far, but was quick to insist there is a long way to go.
"We achieved our first goal which was to qualify for the knockout stages," he told reporters after Spain's 3-0 victory over Turkey. "We had a good game that we controlled for 90 minutes.
"It has been difficult for us to score so far, but tonight we scored three goals. We must now turn to the third and final Group D match against Croatia."
Spain are many people's favourites to win the entire tournament, but David Silva says the team are taking that title in their stride.
"At this stage, it is normal that they make you favourites," he said. "We have won the last two European Championships and also the games in the past few days.
"But we need to keep our feet on the ground. We are calm and need to continue that way."
Team news
Despite telling a Spanish TV channel that dropping Iker Casillas was the most painful decision he has ever had to make as Spain coach, Del Bosque is set to continue with David de Gea for the final group game.
The biggest worry comes in the form of Luka Modric, the Croatia midfielder familiar to many of the Spain squad who are team-mates or opponents of his at club level.
Modric is nursing a groin injury, and team doctor Boris Nemec said on Saturday: "Modric's groin is strained and swollen. He will train at less than full intensity in the next few days and is very unlikely to be available for the Spain match."
When one Real Madrid midfielder drops out though, another comes in, with Mateo Kovacic the likely man to replace him. The Liverpool target played half an hour against Czech Republic on Friday, but is now set to start against Spain.
Vedran Corluka is another player doubtful for Croatia after being forced to wear a head cap in the previous match. He sustained a head wound against Turkey and after having the stitches removed, was forced to take preventative measures against the Czechs.
Spain have Sergio Ramos one yellow card away from a suspension, while Croatia have four men - Milan Badelj, Marcelo Brozovic, Ivan Strinic and Domagoj Vida - risking a second booking of the tournament.
Paul Merson's prediction
"With 60 minutes gone against Czech Republic, Croatia were cruising and looking like potential winners of the tournament. Then the crowd got silly, started throwing stuff on the pitch and delayed the game - and before you know it, the score is 2-2 and they look like being one of the also-rans.
"Luka Modric surely won't be risked and Croatia aren't the same without him. They should get through, but I can see Spain winning this game."
PAUL PREDICTS: 2-0 to Spain
Opta stats
This will be the sixth meeting between Spain and Croatia; Spain have won three of the previous five meetings, while Croatia have won just once (D1).
Croatia's victory against Spain came in their first ever meeting in 1994 (2-0), since then they have managed just two goals in four games against La Roja (L3 D1).
Spain and Croatia met in the last edition of the Euros in 2012, their only clash in a major tournament, with Spain claiming a 1-0 victory thanks to an 88th minute winner from Jesus Navas.
Croatia have reached the knockout stages of the European Championships in 50% of their previous participations (2/4): in 1996 and 2008.
Croatia have only failed to score once in their last 11 games in the European Championships, against Spain in 2012.
Spain are unbeaten in 14 games at the Euros (W11 D3), and haven't conceded a goal in 690 minutes of action.
Spain have scored in each of their last eight group games at the Euros, last failing to find the net in 2004, in a 1-0 defeat to Portugal.
Croatia have had 20 more shots than their opponents over their first two games at Euro 2016 but have only scored one more goal.
Betting
Joint outright favourites Spain are 19/20 with Sky Bet to wrap up top spot by making it three wins from three, with Croatia the 7/2 outsiders while a draw is priced at 21/10.
Morata and Aritz Aduriz share favouritism in the first goalscorer betting at 4/1 apiece with the former currently heading the Golden Boot market at 9/2, while Mario Mandzukic is considered the main Croatian threat at 13/2. The Soccer Saturday pundits and Jamie Redknapp have made their predictions, including Matt Le Tissier's 30/1 fancy for Mandzukic to score first in a 1-1 draw.