Friday 25 November 2016 21:36, UK
Liverpool are most likely to finish fifth in the Premier League this season, according to our Premier Predictor.
The Reds are second in the league with 12 games played, just a point off top spot. They have a popular, charismatic coach in Jurgen Klopp and no European football to distract them from the Premier League.
Yet our Premier Predictor - an algorithm predicting results based on form, home advantage and strength of schedule - has Liverpool as most likely to finish in fifth place. What gives?
Liverpool are in a stronger position at this stage of a season than they have been in a long time. They are ranked higher 12 games into a season than they were than in 2013/14, when they were only just pipped to the title by Manchester City.
But the last time they were in such a strong position at this stage was 2009/10 during Rafa Benitez's last season in charge, when they finished outside the top four.
Early season form does not count for everything and the Predictor takes into account long-term performance, where Liverpool's mid-table finish last year counts against them.
And this season looks like being an incredibly close race between numerous teams. Often one or two teams will stand out from the rest of the pack, but the top five are neck and neck.
Arsenal remain our most highly rated team. However, based on the strength of the teams they're yet to play, Chelsea are now our title favourites for the first time this season.
But all of the top five have essentially the same rankings, with a big drop to Manchester United in sixth place.
One of these five will miss out on the Champions League next season, when in any other year they may have been serious title contenders.
Liverpool are the Predictor's favourites to drop out by a hair's breadth - but it really is too close to call.
Our system simulated ten thousand seasons and Liverpool averaged 67.2 points, Tottenham 67.4 and just four points separates first from fifth on average.
But it's also possible the Reds could win the title. Klopp's men have a 13 per cent probability of doing so - roughly the same chance as the New York Times gave for Donald Trump to win the US Presidential election.
Looking ahead to the weekend, the Premier Predictor sees Liverpool as heavy favourites against struggling Sunderland.
You can watch out for how the Premier Predictor performs live on Sky Sports 1 for Super Sunday, with Watford, Arsenal and Southampton all seen as likely home victors.
Leicester, Manchester United and Chelsea are also expected to win at home, while Manchester City are predicted to beat Burnley away, despite the Clarets' strong form at Turf Moor this season. And Hull are set for a very close run game at home to West Brom.
Check out the full predictions for this weekend and the final league table below...
