Thursday 11 May 2017 17:10, UK
Arsenal travel to Stoke in Saturday's evening fixture with their Champions League hopes revitalised by two wins in four days in the Premier League.
The Gunners' new-look, three-man defence, anchored by Shkodran Mustafi, must now contend with a Stoke attack likely to include Peter Crouch at some stage of this game.
Crouch might not start for the home side, but it's hard to imagine him not providing a threat to Arsenal at some point on Saturday, even if it's during the closing stages as a substitute. The former England striker has generally enjoyed tussles with the Gunners over the years, scoring eight goals - his joint-best career return against any Premier League opponent.
What makes Crouch especially relevant for Stoke in this particular contest is his ability to expose an Arsenal weakness. On the surface, the Gunners seem to have dismissed a familiar narrative of struggling against direct opposition. Arsene Wenger's side have conceded just six headed goals all season, a total only three other teams can better - yet that stat doesn't tell the entire story.
The Gunners have still faced the third-most headed shots in the Premier League (83) this season. By proportion, over 21 per cent of their total attempts faced have come this way - significantly more than any other side - highlighting the approach teams take when assessing Arsenal's strengths and weaknesses.
Mark Hughes will surely be no different, especially armed with Crouch - scorer of more Premier League headed goals than any other player (49). Though his form has dropped in recent weeks, allowing Saido Berahino and Mame Biram Diouf to start recent games, Hughes must be tempted to revert to his leading scorer in this scenario. Whether Crouch starts or is brought on late to chase a result, he can clearly trouble Arsenal in this department.
Aiming to suppress that challenge will be Mustafi. The German was drafted in to face Southampton after Laurent Koscielny failed a late fitness test, and he played an important role in the clean sheet. Mustafi made more defensive actions that any other team-mate and must once again lead the way on Saturday evening against Stoke.
The centre-back is Arsenal's best equipped defender to face a target man, winning more aerial duels per 90 minutes than any other team-mate. He generally plays the more confrontational, man-to-man role in defence, leading the way in tackles and aerial challenges, while the likes of Koscielny are more likely to end an attack with an interception or clearance.
Mustafi's impressive recent display against Andy Carroll, in which he helped prevent West Ham and Carroll from having a single headed shot all game, is something he can take into this match against a similar opponent.
Successive clean sheets have eased some tension around Arsenal, but there remain pressing concerns in their defence since the turn of the year. Regardless of the shape, or personnel, Wenger's side simply cannot prevent opponents firing in attempts on target during recent months. In fact, remarkably, only relegated Sunderland have been worse at doing so in 2017.
Those 90 shots faced more than double the return of other top-four rivals and highlight why Wenger's side have struggled of late. With a more respectable three shots on target faced against Southampton, Mustafi and his defensive peers must hope they can form a more stable foundation to build from on Saturday.
Arsenal have a poor record at Stoke, taking just one win from 8 previous Premier League visits. Anything but three points may end their top four ambitions, while a win puts the pressure back on Liverpool. Jurgen Klopp's side will be hoping their former striker returns to derail the Gunners' challenge for good.
