Tuesday 8 December 2015 18:09, UK
Jose Mourinho insists Chelsea's underlying numbers are good, but is he right? We take a look.
Jose Mourinho was in defiant mood ahead of Wednesday's Champions League tie with Porto. The Chelsea boss hasn't always been one to get bogged down by the numbers but with results going badly, he is taking comfort in the belief that there are positive signs if you look hard enough.
"I feel a contradiction between the quality of the work and what happens on the pitch," he said in his pre-match press conference on Tuesday. "Look, statistics are statistics, but if you analyse the numbers you can get some good information.
"Match after match, we beat Chelsea records of high intensity work. In the last three matches we beat the records three times. We ran and worked more than ever, and at a certain intensity we'd never done before.
Our levels of ball possession are much higher than before, too. Our chances are higher than ever. Our number of goals is lower than ever. So, football people like you are intelligent. You have the numbers, you read the numbers, you draw some conclusions.
"Our levels of ball possession are much higher than before, too. Our chances are higher than ever. Our number of goals is lower than ever. So, football people like you [the media] are intelligent. You have the numbers, you read the numbers, you draw some conclusions."
Let's take Mourinho up on the challenge. Is he right? With the help of Opta, we took a look at the key points raised by the Chelsea boss in search of substance to support his claims. The matter can be tackled by looking at the various metrics that he has highlighted…
Possession
Mourinho clearly has a point here. Chelsea's overall possession in the Premier League this season stands at 56.7 per cent, up from their total of 55.8 per cent in last season's title-winning campaign. Only three teams - Manchester United, Arsenal and Manchester City - have had more of the ball.
Leicester's presence in the bottom three for possession is a reminder of the oft-repeated mantra that it's what you do with the ball that counts. But it's no coincidence that Europe's best sides see more of the ball and Mourinho is entitled to view this as evidence that the issues can be resolved.
Intensity
On the face of it, the tracking data from Chelsea's last three games is less conclusive. Bournemouth outran them by over nine kilometres, with more sprints and a greater percentage of their time spent making high-intensity runs. Tottenham outdid them on all three metrics in the previous game too.
However, what Mourinho is likely to be looking at is the upturn in comparison to the efforts of his players earlier in the season. Certainly, there are some encouraging signs here to support his claim that Chelsea "ran and worked more than ever" in recent matches.
In Chelsea's first 11 Premier League games of the season, they passed the 500-sprint mark only once. In contrast, they have since surpassed this number in three of their last four matches. Results have not improved, but this data suggests Mourinho has had a response from his players in terms of effort.
Chances
Mourinho has regularly pointed to the opportunities squandered by his team in explaining their poor results this season and Chelsea's presence among the Premier League's top six for chances created would appear to support this view.
Arsenal and Manchester City are the two teams to have created the most chances and are also the two favourites to win the league. Chelsea are not far behind on this metric despite struggling to find the net. "I think it's clear that we create so many chances and we don't score goals," said Mourinho.
"It's obvious that it's not a question of developing the game, going through the phases of the build-up and arriving at the last moment, putting the ball in the net. We are arriving at so many situations where we just need a tap in, and we're not doing that."
But…
Where Mourinho might be wrong in his assessment, is that there is a startling difference between the quality of chances produced by the top teams and those being fashioned by Chelsea this season.
Opta defines a clear chance as one that a player might reasonably be expected to score. In other words, the tap-ins to which Mourinho referred. Chelsea ranked joint-top on this metric last season alongside both Arsenal and Manchester City (66 chances) but it's been very different this year.
While Arsenal and City once again lead the way, with leaders Leicester next on the list, only one Premier League team has created fewer clear-cut chances than Chelsea this season. That suggests there are issues "through the phases of the build-up" as well as with the final touches.
Conclusion
Mourinho has always been a coach concerned with the details and it's intriguing that he's opted to share some of these thoughts. Clearly, he is looking for evidence of a response from his team and is understandably comforted by underlying data that suggests the problems will not continue.
In terms of the team's possession numbers and recent sprinting stats, there are positive signs. The number of chances created offers hope too. But the data for clear-chances created is a reminder that there is much work left to do before Chelsea's issues are resolved.
