Tuesday 2 February 2016 19:28, UK
Birmingham City have a better chance of starting the 2016/17 season in the Premier League than rivals Aston Villa, according to a probability model.
The Blues are sixth in the Championship, eight points off the automatic promotion places, but are better placed for a Premier League spot than Remi Garde's Villa, alongside seven other Championship clubs, according to Sportsrisq's proprietary model.
According to the model, which reflects key stats that impact future performance such as results, form and the form of players signed, Villa have a one per cent chance of staying in the Premier League.
That's the same chance as Nottingham Forest, QPR, Wolves, Reading and Brentford have of promotion, while Gary Rowett's Birmingham have a five per cent chance of success at the end of the season.
Cardiff (three per cent), Ipswich, (eight per cent), Sheffield Wednesday (10 per cent), Brighton (22 per cent), Burnley (29 per cent), Derby (40 per cent), Hull (75 per cent) and Middlesbrough (83 per cent) all have a greater chance of promotion than Villa have of survival.
Villa were one of only three Premier League clubs not to bring in any senior players in January alongside Manchester United and Tottenham, meaning their one per cent chance of survival at the beginning of the month had little room for improvement over January despite their first win since the opening day of the season against Crystal Palace.
Despite the signing of Steven Naismith and Timm Klose for a combined £16m, as well as a loan deal for Patrick Bamford, Norwich's percentage chance of staying up went down 21 per cent from 88 to 67 over January, thanks in no small part to three defeats out of four in the Premier League.
Newcastle were the Premier League's biggest spenders, splashing out £29m on Henry Saivet, Jonjo Shelvey, Andros Townsend and Seydou Doumbia (loan), but with just one win in their four Premier League matches in January, their chance of survival rose by only nine per cent.
In the Championship, Middlesbrough's chances of promotion fell four per cent over January, partly due to promotion rivals Hull winning four wins out of four in the league, but Boro's signing of Blackburn's top scorer Jordan Rhodes on Deadline Day stands them in good stead between now and May.
More specifically, the model incorporates season results, future fixtures, current form and future team ability. The changes over the transfer window are driven almost entirely by the results and not by the signings, and the impact of the signings should be seen going forward.
Garde's Villa side are bottom of the Premier League, 10 points from safety, having won just two games all season.
