Monday 25 January 2016 15:24, UK
Can Chelsea pull off a remarkable run and finish in the top four?
The Blues' victory at title-chasing Arsenal on Sunday has sparked debate about whether last seaon's Premier League winners can make a late bid for the Champions League qualifying spots.
Here we look at Chelsea's chances of a top-four finish, with the help of stats and expert opinion…
The gap
While there's talk of the top four, Chelsea remain far closer to the relegation zone. Chelsea are 14 points behind fourth-placed Tottenham, but just seven clear of third-from-last Newcastle.
How many points do they need?
Predicting the number of points needed to finish fourth is far from easy. Since the Premier League switched to a 38-game season in 1995/96, Liverpool have finished fourth with as few as 60 points, while Arsenal have finished fourth with 79 - four more than Manchester United managed when they won the league in 1996/97.
Since the Premier League's switch to a 38-game calendar, the average number of points needed to finish fourth has been 68.35.
Tottenham are currently fourth with 42 points. They are averaging 1.83 points per game. If they keep up that form they'll finish the season with 69 points.
So what do Chelsea need to do?
Chelsea currently have 28 points. To reach the lowest-ever fourth-place points total, set by Liverpool in 2004, they will need 10 wins and two draws from their final 15 games.
To match the average fourth-place points total for a 38-game Premier League season, Chelsea need 13 wins and one draw.
To better Tottenham's predicted total of 69 points, Chelsea need 14 wins from 15 games.
Is there any chance of them doing that?
Chelsea were dominant winners of the Premier League last season, but didn't once go on a run which would now see them pass the average fourth-place points total in 38-game Premier League seasons.
The best 15-game streak Jose Mourinho's men managed in 2014/15 was 11 wins and four draws - a run of results which would now take them to 65 points, four short of Tottenham's predicted final total.
Importantly, Chelsea have managed just seven Premier League wins this season out of 23 matches. They haven't once won back-to-back games this term. Winning 14 out of 15 to better Tottenham's predicted total appears to be a huge task.
What's the view from inside the Chelsea camp?
Boss Guus Hiddink told Sky Sports after their win at Arsenal that their 14-point deficit on Spurs was "a big gap". Rather than discuss his side's prospects of overcoming that margin, he said his priority was ensuring his team played with "ambition…even when there is nothing at stake".
However, club captain John Terry, isn't ruling out a surge to fourth place - and says the inconsistency of the league's top teams means there is still a way back for Chelsea.
"Anything is [possible]," he said. "Everyone's beating everyone. It's surprising every weekend. You look at the fixtures thinking 'they're going to go there and easily win the game' and it's not like that.
"It's a tough league this year. If we can put a good run of games together and continue playing like we have done and show the fighting spirit we have done in the last few weeks we've got a good chance.
"We're not writing anything off. We'll keep fighting in the league until there's no points to play for."
What's the expert view?
Jamie Carragher - the current top four won't drop enough points for Chelsea to recover
Top four is too far away in terms of points difference and also the quality of football Chelsea are playing.
"From what I've seen this season I don't think they'll get top four. I think it's too much of a gap - and also there's the form of the top four. Everyone in those places now won't be thinking about the Champions League, they'll be thinking of the title. Those teams at the top are in much better form.
"Chelsea are unbeaten under Guus Hiddink but it's not an unbeaten run where you are delighted at how they are playing or the results they are getting. The win over Arsenal is the first big result under the new manager. Top four is too far away in terms of points difference and also the quality of football they are playing."
Graeme Souness - the run required isn't beyond them, but they won't do it
They would have to go on a hell of a run but it's not beyond them. Remember, this is a group of guys used to winning things.
"There were glimpses against Arsenal that Chelsea were the champions we saw last year. You don't become a bad player overnight and this is a group of players who were outstanding last year and for whatever reason it's not worked for them.
"They've changed the manager and I thought Guus Hiddink would have got a bigger response than he has had. Chelsea won't talk about it openly - 14 points may sound a lot - but it's not a lot. Chelsea could still end up in fourth place - but I don't think they will. They would have to go on a hell of a run but it's not beyond them. Remember, this is a group of guys used to winning things."
