Sky Sports presenter and columnist looks at the race for the top four and previews a huge weekend of racing at Newbury and Leopardstown
Thursday 5 February 2015 23:23, UK
What a race it is going to be to get into the Premier League's top four.
Southampton were the big losers last weekend as they were Beaten on Super Sunday by Swansea. That could be a very expensive defeat as Saints were the only team in the top seven to lose and are now out to 11/4 with Sky Bet for a top-four finish.
Liverpool (4/1) and Tottenham (5/1) are both on the up but the rigours of the Europa League loom large on the horizon.
It's Arsenal who are starting to look like the real deal and certainties for Champions League qualification yet again.
Manchester United (2/5) are churning out the results without hitting the heights, while it's Arsenal who are starting to look like the real deal and certainties for Champions League qualification yet again.
The fierce competition for places seems to have bought out in the best in the likes of Cazorla, Rosicky and Coquelin in the last few weeks. That could now apply to Mesut Ozil and Theo Walcott, who know they need to impress boss Arsene Wenger.
They also have Aaron Ramsey back playing well but the most impressive feature for me is the three straight clean sheets in the league.
Per Mertesacker looks far more comfortable alongside Laurent Koscielny and they are finally getting proper protection from midfield.
As Gary Neville explained on Monday Night Football they might also have uncovered a real talent at right-back in Hector Bellerin. It's incredible to think Bellerin has beaten the 40m record at Arsenal held by Thierry Henry and Theo Walcott. He's lightning.
There have been countless false dawns with Arsenal but some defensive rigidity and a wealth of attacking options gives the Gunners plenty of optimisim for the rest of the season.
It's another key weekend in the race for the top four with the north London and Merseyside derbies before we have a hat-trick of games on Super Sunday, culminating in West Ham v Manchester United at Upton Park.
This is a fixture Manchester United have dominated, winning 11 of the last 12 meetings, and Upton Park must be one of Wayne Rooney's favourite grounds as he has scored more goals there than on any other away ground and more there than any other opposition player in Premier League history.
Even playing in his deeper role Rooney could be worth a bet at 7/4 with Sky Bet to keep that run going.
Sire De Grugy back at Newbury
This weekend is the ultimate one for Cheltenham clues.
'Super Saturday' at Newbury then a super Sunday at Leopardstown; both with mouth-watering cards. It will be D-day for any number of Festival ante-post fancies.
Sire De Grugy is the star attraction at Newbury. Let's hope he comes back as good as ever and sets up the defence of his Champion Chase crown and a mouth-watering clash with Sprinter Sacre. He'll have to be pretty fit as Uxizandre and Mr Mole will be a tough opponents in the Game Spirit.
Nicky Henderson eyes up the Betfair Hurdle every year, and you only have to look at his impressive race stats to know he's a good starting point for anyone studying this year's contest. However, his runners in Saturday's feature won't be weighed down by any of the Chamberlin gambling fund.
It's always a competitive handicap and this year's renewal is no different. With this in mind, I am keen to have two shots at the race.
Paul Nicholls has trained Calipto for the race and a lenient-looking handicap mark makes him a must for any shortlist. A promising juvenile last season, he was unlucky not to better his fourth in the Triumph Hurdle, when Daryl Jacob's stirrup leather broke two hurdles from the finish. His seasonal reappearance second to Tiger Roll suggests he's well-in off 143 and whatever beats him will win.
One horse I can make a strong case for against the favourite is the Warren Greatrex-trained novice, Seedling. His form is interesting, including a strong staying performance at Cheltenham last time out when he bossed Some Plan (winner since) up the hill.
I know connections think he's going to be a proper horse on good ground, but I think he's more versatile than that and I just hope they let him take his chance, it's the perfect race for the six-year-old to showcase his considerable talent. The yard have been a bit quiet but at 12/1 with Sky Bet, Seedling is well worth chancing.
The Triumph Hurdle will come in to focus this weekend. Big time. AP McCoy has done us another good turn this year tipping Hargam as his horse to follow for the season. I'm surprised Hargam didn't shorten up more for the Triumph as he was really impressive at Musselburgh on Sunday.
Hargam clocked a similar time as the winner of the two-mile handicap that followed, carrying 22lbs more and without coming off the bridle. He ran in Listed company in the flat in France, so we know he has bags of speed and has proved that he acts around Cheltenham. All we need now is good ground on Gold Cup day and Hargam will be in business.
Kalkir could emerge as a big threat in Ireland on Sunday. He looks set to be ridden more prominently than at Christmas when Fiscal Focus dented his tall reputation but Kalkir is expected to bounce back in style.
Alvisio Ville could also enhance his big reputation in the Deloitte. He's a monster of a horse and looks to have an engine to match. McCoy's Cheltenham hopes in the championship races are looking a little thin in the ground, though Hargam looks good and More Of That could come back to prominence in the World Hurdle. Alvisio Ville would no doubt be a welcome addition.
I've done my money on Gilgamboa in the Arkle, while Boston Bob is yet another horse for whom it's D-day on Sunday. I haven't given up on him and torn up my Gold Cup ante-post ticket - just yet.
This week I'm adding a couple of horses to my ante-post portfolio.
First, Kilcrea Vale in the Neptune at 12/1 with Sky Bet. I'm hoping Kempton is on on Friday so we can see Kilcrea Vale again. He bolted up at Market Rasen last month and looks a major talent. His work at Seven Barrows is top notch.
Second is Ma Filleule in the Ryanair Chase. I was lucky enough to spend last Saturday with Simon Munir at Sandown and my five-year-old son collected the trophy for the Scilly Isles Novices Chase - Sam Chamberlin's first Grade One prize!
I really like the look of Simon's mare in the Ryanair and we should see her again at Ascot next weekend. We have not seen the best of her yet this season but My Filleule - my Goddaughter in French - comes to herself in the spring and had a brilliant end to last season.
She was edged out by Holywell at the Cheltenham Festival, in receipt of just 2lbs, and that horse could still emerge as a major Gold Cup contender. She then hacked up in the Topham at Aintree jumping the Grand National fences brilliantly.
Ma Filleule jumps well, crucially we know she acts on the Cheltenham track and that she thrives on spring ground. Let's hope the punters have fallen for the mare on Valentines Day next weekend.
Cheltenham Ante-post Portfolio
Boston Bob (Gold Cup)
Hargam (Triumph)
Gilgamboa (Arkle)
Ma Filleule (Ryanair)
Kilcrea Vale (Neptune)
