Sky Sports expert also provides his dark horses for the tournament
Friday 10 June 2016 10:06, UK
With Euro 2016 fever set to grip the continent, Guillem Balague assesses holders Spain's chances of winning a third consecutive European Championship crown, as well as picking his dark horses to lift the trophy.
A shock defeat to Georgia in their final warm-up game gave the 2008 and 2012 winners food for thought before they travelled to France on the hunt of an unprecedented Euro treble.
With question marks hanging over Vicente del Bosque's goalkeeping and attacking options, coupled with a lack of creativity in midfield, Sky Sports' Spanish football expert offers his thoughts on his nation's hopes...
Spain stutter in preparations
Even though it was a friendly, losing against Georgia is considered one of the worst defeats in the history of the Spanish national team. As Del Bosque said, it was the perfect game to galvanise everybody's interest and to end preparations on a high note but none of that happened, despite a strong team being fielded.
What happened instead was Georgia, as is going to happen with many teams at Euro 2016, defended really deep. There were no spaces, in part to Spain not creating any, but there are no excuses as Spain have to work harder to create those spaces.
You do that by moving the ball around quickly, not by playing long but by playing to their strengths with depth on the wings and with full-backs that surprise instead of simply being there - a lot of things that didn't happen against Georgia.
I had a suspicion that, having won so much, there seems to be less interest, and pressure, for Spain to win. That is lethal. I get the impression Spain need new answers and a new way of doing things, sometimes coaches run their course and something new is needed.
I don't know who will be the next coach and I could of course be proven wrong, it just feels teams have worked Spain out and it will even be difficult to come out of the group.
Decisions, decisions, decisions...
As far as the debate for the Spanish goalkeeping position is concerned, for me it should be David de Gea. However, even people that know Del Bosque closely don't know what he is going to do. Iker Casillas hasn't had a great season but, in fairness, that's the least of Spain's worries.
Even who will be number nine is the least of Spain's worries, I think it will be Alvaro Morata, fitness permitting. The problems concern whether Spain play enough football to beat the kind of defences that lie in wait in France.
At the moment, Del Bosque is playing with one central midfielder but he may decide to play Bruno Soriano alongside Sergio Busquets. I just think the three in front of the holding midfielder have to improve their movement and passing.
2008, 2012, 2016...?
Spain will compete in France because they've got the players, they will reach the quarter-finals for sure but after that, who knows. But... need I mention the 2014 World Cup? Unless the team increases the intensity both in passing and in recovering possession, we will find it very hard to beat sides.
Dark horses?
Spain find themselves paired with two of the tournament's dark horses in Croatia and Turkey. Croatia have got great quality with Ivan Rakitic and Luka Modric in midfield, as well as players with proven European pedigree in Inter Milan winger Ivan Perisic and Juventus striker Mario Mandzukic.
If Turkey progress through the group, they could do damage. They have a lot of quality up front but are generally a very balanced side.
I like the look of Austria and I'm intrigued to see Bayern Munich's David Alaba deployed in central midfield. They also have Stoke's Marko Arnautovic and Leicester's Christian Fuchs, who we've seen can handle pressure.
Recent tournament underachievers Belgium come to mind. It's not like Spain pre-2008, but there is so much potential there with the likes of Eden Hazard and Romelu Lukaku that if they work together, even with Vincent Kompany missing, it could be a good opportunity to prove how good this generation of players is.
When it came to the key moments in tournaments over the past few years, Belgium didn't seem to be strong enough mentally. That is a problem they'll have to address. But, with Belgium neighbouring France, perhaps Marc Wilmots' side can benefit from some added home support.
