Monday 25 April 2016 19:09, UK
We investigate the permutations in a thrilling Sky Bet Championship promotion race involving Middlesbrough, Burnley and Brighton, including the crazy possibility of a play-off before the play-offs.
With extra revenue for Premier League clubs next season, promotion this year is reportedly worth close to £200m and after another weekend of twists and turns at the top of the Sky Bet Championship, the table paints an intriguing picture.
We are left with an astonishing state of affairs that sees Burnley, Middlesbrough and Brighton fighting for the two promotion places all locked together on 87 points.
The teams have just two rounds of fixtures left and the fact that Brighton have to travel to Middlesbrough on the final day adds extra spice to an already tantalising recipe of drama.
What happens if all three are level on points on the final day? What do the historical trends show us? And, is there a possibility of a play-off before the play-offs due to identical league records?
We take a look....
Method of determining league positions?
It is widely known that if two or more clubs have the same number of points then their position will be determined on goal difference and Football League sponsor Sky Bet consider it a real possibility, pricing it up as an 11/8 chance now.
The goal difference rule was instigated in 1976. Previously, goal difference wasn't used to separate teams that finished on the same points. The decider up until then was goal average, calculated by taking the number of goals scored and dividing it by the number of goals conceded.
The only period in which the goal difference tie-breaker was ditched in the Football League was between 1992 and 1999, when league positions were determined by goals scored if teams had the same points.
During that period, Wigan Athletic and Fulham finished level on 87 points at the top of the Third Division in 1996/97. Wigan were awarded the title on goals scored, though Fulham had the greater goal difference.
It reverted back to the goal difference method from the start of the 1999/2000 season.
Has goal difference ever decided a Football League title?
Yes - three times (not including the Wigan win) since the current goal difference system was introduced in 1976/77.
In 1983/84, both Chelsea and Sheffield Wednesday finished locked together in the Second Division on 88 points, but the west London club's goal difference of +50 bettered Wednesday's +38.
Sheffield was on the wrong end of another title goal difference defeat in 1990. This time, Wednesday's city rivals United were pipped by Leeds United to the Second Division title due to an inferior goal difference.
If Burnley do win the Championship this season on goal difference, they will become the first team to win a title by that means twice as they saw off Carlisle United in the race for the Third Division title during the 1981/82 season when both finished on 80 points.
What if two teams have the same points AND the same goal difference?
Now we're starting to enter complicated waters. Stay with us.
If teams can't be separated by league points or goal difference, then league position is decided by the club having scored the most goals in league matches in that season.
With just three goals separating the three teams at the top, there is a realistic possibility that we could see two teams finish first and second, or second and third, with the same points and goal difference. This method has only ever settled a Football League title once before.
That came in 1988/89 with Arsenal winning the First Division on goals scored, courtesy of a last-gasp Michael Thomas goal against second-placed Liverpool. There could be similar drama on May 7 when Middlesbrough host Brighton.
Ok, what if two teams have the same points, goal difference and goal scored?
The Football League rules state: "If two or more clubs have the same number of points, goal difference and goals scored the highest placed club shall be determined by the respective league records against each other, taking into account in order of precedence: points gained, goal difference and goals scored. If the above procedures do not separate the clubs, then the clubs concerned shall play-off a deciding League Match or Matches under arrangements approved by the Board on a neutral ground."
With this in mind, there are only two circumstances in which there could be a promotion play-off.
The more likely of the two would be if Middlesbrough finish top and Brighton and Burnley occupy second and third with identical goal difference and goals scored.
In that situation, they could not be separated by their league position, so it would come down to their head-to-head record, which reads 3-3 on aggregate from their two meetings this season, meaning they still couldn't be separated on points gained, goal difference or goals scored. It would be an identical record in every department.
We would then potentially have a winner-takes-all decider to look forward to before the play-offs, which would arguably be the most lucrative game in world football.
It's complicated, but for that to happen, a results sequence along these lines in the remaining fixtures would need to occur:
Brighton 3-0 Derby
Birmingham 0-1 Middlesbrough
Burnley 2-4 QPR
Middlesbrough 1-0 Brighton
Charlton 2-3 Burnley
That would leave the final Championship table looking like this:
Another scenario that could lead to a promotion play-off would be Middlesbrough to lose 3-0 at home to Brighton on the final day. But even then they would have had to score at least 13 goals against Birmingham in their penultimate game in order to match either Burnley or Brighton's outright goals scored.
The Championship is known for unpredictable results, but I think we can categorically rule that one out!
Who is going up? Who has the tougher run-in? Let us know @SkyFootball or commenting below!
