How will Gareth Bale's absence affect Wales' bid to reach 2018 World Cup?
Wednesday 4 October 2017 06:14, UK
If Wales want to qualify for a first World Cup since 1958, they will have to do it the hard way.
Wales are four points behind Group D leaders Serbia with two games to go and their runner-up placing is currently not good enough to even reach the play-offs.
But their uphill task has just got steeper as a calf strain has ruled Gareth Bale out of their final two crucial Qualifiers against Georgia and the Republic of Ireland.
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Wales last lined up without Bale in what proved an impressive 1-1 draw at Serbia in June, with manager Chris Coleman insisting before the game: "Bale is who he is, he is one of the best players in the world, but I firmly believe we have enough about us to get what we need here. Any team would miss him but you don't win with one player and you don't lose because of one player."
But just how crucial could the Real Madrid forward's absence be for Wales? We check the stats and see who could step up in his absence…
Bale force
Bale's influence within the Wales squad has grown greatly since his debut as a 16-year-old in 2006, where he secured an assist in a 2-1 friendly win over Trinidad & Tobago.
Since the 2014 World Cup qualifying campaign began back in August 2012, Wales have won almost half of their games (W17 D8 L10) with Bale, while they have recorded just one victory without him (W1 D4 L4).
Goals are subsequently hard to come by, with their average per game dropping from 1.3 to 0.8 as a result.
Meanwhile, Bale's tally of 20 goals for Wales in all competitions since 2012 is more than the next three players combined - Aaron Ramsey (8), Hal Robson-Kanu (5) and Sam Vokes (4).
How Wales would love one of the above trio to step up on the attacking front.
Ramsey's time to shine?
An incredible run to the Euro 2016 semi-finals saw both Ramsey and Joe Allen named in team of the tournament, while there was no spot for Bale in that XI as Antoine Griezmann, Dimitri Payet and Cristiano Ronaldo all featured in attack.
Ramsey stood out in France as he recorded one goal and four assists in their first major tournament in more than 50 years.
More recently the Arsenal midfielder has netted twice in Wales' last three qualifying matches.
The 26-year-old can only hope that the goals will keep coming against Georgia. Coleman will likely push him into a more advanced role behind either Vokes or Robson-Kanu, and it will be this link-up which could prove crucial in their next two matches.
However, in terms of actually replacing Bale, could that honour fall to one 17-year-old?
Woodburn for Bale?
With Wales heading to a Georgia side who are yet to win this campaign, Coleman will look to start on the front foot, much as they did for the 2-0 win in Moldova.
A 4-3-3 formation saw Bale and Tom Lawrence play behind Robson-Kanu, while Liverpool youngster Ben Woodburn came off the bench during that victory, making just his second international appearance after a dream debut handed Wales all three points against Austria.
With Bale out, Wales' young player of the year could well get the nod. He will write his name into Welsh folklore if he can inspire Wales to a first World Cup in 60 years.
All eyes on Cardiff
The only outcome that will not make Monday's Wales vs Ireland clash a crucial encounter is if the former win in Georgia and the latter lose at home to Moldova on Friday.
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Otherwise, you are looking at a straight shootout for second, barring a Serbia slip-up.
Both nations will know that only victory will suffice due to the play-offs accommodating only the eight best runners-up.
A boosted goal difference will, in turn, boost Wales' bid to avoid becoming the worst second-place outfit in the European tables.
There are plenty of permutations, but the only thing Wales know for sure is that it'll have to be done without Bale.
Play-off table as it stands
After the group stage, eight of the nine second-place nations will move into the play-offs as the team with the lowest number of points misses out.
Points against the bottom sides in each group do not count, and as you can see, Wales are currently ninth. But plenty can change with two rounds of fixtures remaining...
