Premier League final day betting preview: Trust Foxes and Eagles on a goal-crazy day
Crystal Palace and Leicester fancied on a day that usually sees goals galore
Last Updated: 12/05/19 5:22pm
Soon, it will be all be over for another year - but there is one last chance to punish the bookmakers.
An angle I always look to exploit on the final day in the Premier League is goals.
Final day permutations are thin on the ground. We've got a titanic title race to feast on but it's slim pickings elsewhere for potential end of season drama. This is not a bad thing for those of my persuasion that believe goals flow freely on the final day as shackle-free teams play without the handbrake in front of a pressure-free crowd environment who are soaking up the May sunshine.
For the past nine seasons, the average goals on the final day has outperformed the overall average per matchday over the course of the season. For example, in 2016/17, the average goals per round stood at 28 but on the final day there were 37 scored across the 10 games.
Additionally, in the last 100 Premier League games played on the final day there has been just three 0-0 draws - all three of those games involved a team that had either been relegated or needed a point to survive on the final day. So, the key to punting success on Sunday should be putting faith in goals in games involving teams that haven't got relegation hanging over them.
Final Day goal-fests!
Chelsea 8-0 Wigan (09/10)
West Brom 5-5 Man Utd (12/13)
Stoke 6-1 Liverpool (14/15)
Hull 1-7 Tottenham (16/17)
Tottenham 5-4 Leicester (17/18)
Here's two bets to consider....
Palace aren't usually ones to trust at Selhurst Park having lost nine Premier League games there this season. However, with attack-minded Bournemouth in town this type of clash should suit Palace, who possess so much pace, power and quality on the break as shown by their club-record-breaking away form.
With confidence high and the locals happy following a run of seven wins in their last 13, I'm expecting Palace to have too much for the Cherries. Bournemouth's lack of progress this season can be put down to poor away form and a worrying lack of defensive cohesion, conceding 65 Premier League goals - only the bottom three have conceded more.
Next season, a team to keep onside will be Leicester, especially at the King Power Stadium.
Brendan Rodgers notoriously gets his team playing in a style that is very difficult to beat at home where they can dictate possession. His Leicester side have won four of their last five Premier League games at home and impressed with the way they dominated against Arsenal recently in a 3-0 win.
Chelsea will be at half-speed this weekend following their Europa League penalty shootout win on Thursday and results show Maurizio Sarri's men are always vulnerable after a midweek European game.
The Blues have won just once in their last seven matches following a European game (D2, L4) and that victory against Watford came after they were second best for large parts of that clash.
N'Golo Kante is out and there's no reason to risk Eden Hazard with a Europa League final on the horizon, that game will be the focus for Sarri now with a top-four finish guaranteed. Leicester look overpriced for three points.
What are the chances? Final day odds...
- Manchester City to win the Premier League: 1/10
- Liverpool to win the Premier League: 6/1
- Arsenal to finish in top four: 125/1
My betting week...
High: Chester is a magnificent place. And we left our mark across the great city by leaving with the Placepot after racing on Thursday. It wasn't a life changer - as the fact I'm penning this piece can vouch for.
An early retirement remains on the to-do list.
We also had the pleasure of seeing this year's most likely Derby winner strutting his stuff. Sir Dragonet will take a lot of stopping at Epsom and missing the 8/1 available (now 7/2 with Sky Bet) on his chances seconds after crossing the line at Chester due to a stubborn WiFi connection left me cursing the technology gods.
Low: Being initially refused entry at Chester for not wearing a tie was unfortunate. An incident made worse that the incident with the steward (who did seem to take great pleasure from my demise) was witnessed by Manchester United legends Denis Irwin and Bryan Robson. They had ties on and waltzed in, no problem.
According to the best man at my wedding, ties made me look sausage-like. Any excuse not to wear one, I'm taking it.
With this shuddering news at the gate, there was a possibility that my favourite racecourse was about to lose a valued customer.
Thankfully, the high street in Chester is adjacent to the racecourse. With time running out before the first race, swift action was required and like a gift from god the closest shop was an Oxfam.
You can stick your £1 fish. I'm all about the £1 ties.