Our tipster Jones Knows thinks Cesar Azpilicueta will see a card for Chelsea against Newcastle on Monday Night Football.
How did we get on last weekend?
The Jones Knows millions is dwindling.
From a significant position of strength coming into 2021 - a return of +21.5 points - we are now on an 18-points losing streak. Of course, variance is variance, and losing runs go hand-in-hand with my style of bigger price punting. We must keep focused on the process.
I am resembling a broken record and those following with their hard-earned must be becoming frustrated too - but a winner is near, as shown by our 28/1 Miguel Almiron angle last weekend. There is another value loser to throw on the pile.
We were on Newcastle to have 16 or more shots vs Southampton and Almiron to hit the target from outside the box (28/1 with Sky Bet) and excitement was growing when Almiron delivered from outside the box just before the break. That 28/1 was now a 4/1 shot, with the Toon needing 11 shots in the second half.
Then Jeff Hendrick happened.
His red card measured maximum stupidity on the stupid scale and completely ended Newcastle's new-found adventurous style of play. The bet was in the bin from that moment.
On the Sunday, Jayden Bogle to have a shot and Sheffield United to avoid defeat vs Chelsea (4/1 with Sky Bet) failed to cop on both parts. Bogle's decision not to shoot from the centre of goal about 18 yards out was a strange one midway through the first half. He remains an underrated player in the shots and goalscorer markets.
Chelsea were relatively comfortable for large parts at Bramall Lane although it's too early to make sweeping statements about Thomas Tuchel's style. I remain in the yet to be too impressed camp.
Anyway, we go again.
And remember, whatever I tip, I back comrades. We're in this together.
P+L = +3.5
2pts on Joao Cancelo to have a shot on target from outside the box for Man City vs Tottenham
1pt on Aaron Wan-Bissaka to have two or more shots at goal for Manchester United vs West Brom
1pt on Cesar Azpilicueta to receive a card in Chelsea vs Newcastle (11/2 with Sky Bet - bet here!)
A betting angle to consider for Monday Night Football revolves around the battle between Allan Saint-Maximin and Cesar Azpilicueta.
The defender has been an ever-present for Thomas Tuchel on the right of a back three but is prone to a late challenge on a speedy opponent like a Saint-Maximin or Miguel Almiron, who also likes to drift into spaces which will be marshalled by Azpilicueta. In both his starts against Newcastle last season, the defender made five fouls in the two matches against Newcastle with all of them coming against Saint-Maximin or Almiron. He avoided a card that day but may not get as fortunate this time around.
Eberechi Eze, Ademola Lookman, Anwar El Ghazi and Heung-Min Son have all drawn bookings off the Spaniard this season and here he has to deal with the frightening prospect of keeping a lid on Saint-Maximin, who looked back to his best in Newcastle's win over Southampton.
Since the start of last season, no player to have played more than 800 minutes averages more dribbles per-game than the winger (9.14) with 14 opposition players in that time picking up a booking for fouling the flying Frenchman.
The 11/2 for an Azpilicueta card looks an angle to attack with confidence.